ATFX Market Outlook 19th March 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 19th March 2025 

Safe-Haven Surge: Gold Breaks Records While Markets Brace for Central Bank Moves

Market HighlightU.S. equities fell on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak. Investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and assessed the potential impact of President Trump’s tariff agenda. The Dow lost 0.62%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.07%, and the Nasdaq slid 1.7%.

Despite surging U.S. housing starts and industrial production in February, trade tensions clouded the outlook for economic recovery. The U.S. Dollar Index extended its decline, hitting a fresh five-month low. EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.0945, while GBP/USD gained 0.12% to 1.3001. USD/JPY edged up 0.05% to 149.28.

Gold prices surged 1%, breaking above the $3,000 per ounce mark and setting a record high amid heightened Middle East tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by tariff-related uncertainty. Spot gold rose 1.08% to $3,033.95, having briefly touched $3,038.26 earlier in the session. Oil prices slipped around 1% following a temporary ceasefire agreement on energy facilities after a call between Trump and Putin, though a broader truce remains elusive.

Key OutlookThe Bank of Japan is set to announce its policy decision during the Asian session, likely maintaining interest rates at their current level. However, markets remain wary of hawkish signals amid intense wage negotiations and persistent inflation, which could trigger a rate hike in July. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is poised to announce its interest rate decision early on Thursday, with no changes anticipated. Nevertheless, the market focuses on the Fed's response to economic sentiment and potential inflation arising from Trump's tariff plans.

Key Data and Events Today: 

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision *** 

14:30 BoJ Press Conference *** 

18:00 EU CPI Final FEB *** 

21:30 Crude Oil Inventories ** 

Tomorrow

Japan Holiday

02:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision *** 

02:30 Fed Press Conference *** 

09:00 CN 1-Year and 5-Year Loan Prime Rate ** 

15:00 EU GERMANY PPI FEB ** 

16:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision *** 

20:00 BOE Interest Rate Decision *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

EURUSD

·       Resistance: 1.0961 / 1.0977

·       Support: 1.0914 / 1.0899

Germany's debt has been approved, and the nation's plan to enhance defence and infrastructure spending could drive 10-year bund yields to 4% by 2028. This may prompt the ECB to raise interest rates and bolster the euro. 

GBPUSD

·       Resistance: 1.3021 / 1.3030

·       Support: 1.2968 / 1.2958

Sterling fell and rebounded against the US dollar yesterday, achieving its highest level since November 6 last year at 1.3000. It needs to hold steady and aim for the key resistance near 1.3050, breaking through 1.3021/1.3030 first. For guidance, keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's latest decision.

USDJPY

·       Resistance: 149.89 / 150.09

·       Support: 148.94 / 148.73

The yen remained steady while the dollar struggled as traders awaited key interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged but may signal future hikes, while the Fed is also anticipated to hold rates steady, with markets considering potential rate cuts later this year.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

·       Resistance: 67.40 / 67.74

·       Support: 65.95 / 65.60

Putin’s agreement with Ukraine to a 30-day mutual non-attack on energy infrastructure prompted a decline in oil prices. U.S. crude reached a two-week high but fell below the 10-day moving average, facing resistance at the 20-day MA. Attention now shifts to support beneath $66.

Spot Gold

·       Resistance: 3046 / 3060

·       Support: 3017 / 3004

Spot Silver

·       Resistance: 34.41 / 34.69

·       Support: 33.49 / 33.21

Gold surged past $3,000 to a record high of $3,038 amid geopolitical tensions and Fed policy uncertainty, with XAU/USD trading at $3,037, up 1.20%. Falling Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar continue to support the rally. Meanwhile, Silver paused its advance, trading at $33.97 after failing to hold above $34.00 for a second straight day despite hitting a yearly high of $34.23.

Dow Futures

·       Resistance: 41864 / 42333

·       Support: 41115 / 40639

Dow futures rose 0.2%, showing resilience compared to the tech-heavy Nasdaq amid recent market declines. Traditional sectors bolster the Dow's stability, even as market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision and economic outlook update, which could impact future movements for the Dow and broader indices.

NAS100

·       Resistance: 19888 / 20141

·       Support: 19297 / 19101

Major tech stocks fell overnight as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's decision, with Nvidia and Meta down over 3%. The Nasdaq opened lower and hit a three-day low, raising questions about its approach to last week’s lows. The future direction will depend on the Fed's economic outlook and potential rate cuts in the first half of the year, which could ease the downward pressure on the Nasdaq.

BTC

·       Resistance: 84677 / 86682

·       Support: 80702 / 78187

Bitcoin was around $82,000 as the Fed began its policy meeting, with markets expecting stable rates. Gold climbed due to safe-haven demand, while altcoins fell. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw strong inflows from Fidelity, which may help support Bitcoin at a lower level while waiting for a rebound.

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