Markets in Fed-Waiting Mode as RBA Decision Draws Intraday Focus

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ATFX Market Outlook 9th December 2025

Markets in Fed-Waiting Mode as RBA Decision Draws Intraday Focus

Market Highlight

U.S. equities closed lower on Monday, with most sectors in the S&P 500 declining as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Dow Jones fell 0.45%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq edged down 0.1%. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies amid choppy trading. Markets have largely priced in a Fed rate cut this week, though investors expect the central bank to deliver a more cautious easing signal than previously anticipated. The dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.07 by the close.

Gold prices dipped slightly as traders remained cautious ahead of the Fed meeting, with spot gold ending 0.19% lower at $4,188.59 per ounce. Oil prices fell 2%, pressured by Iraq’s resumption of production at a field that accounts for 0.5% of global supply, alongside ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.

Key Outlook

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision during the Asian session today. Given last week’s hotter-than-expected inflation data and economic growth hovering near its potential level, the RBA is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Investors will focus on whether the statement carries a hawkish tone, which could provide further support for the Australian dollar.

Key Data and Events Today:

11:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***  

12:30 RBA Press Conference *** 

19:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index NOV **

Tomorrow:

05:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***

07:50 JP PPI NOV ** 

09:30 CN CPI  NOV ** 

22:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision *** 

23:30 BoC Press Conference ***

23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1660/1.1682

· Support: 1.1609/1.1586 

EUR/USD eased to 1.1639 as traders positioned for a potential “hawkish cut” from the Fed, with rising U.S. yields lending support to the dollar. ECB officials signalling the possibility of a future hike kept policy divergence in focus. Technically, EUR/USD may dip toward 1.1609 before buyers attempt another push back toward 1.1660.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3370/1.3412

· Support: 1.3275/1.3232

GBP/USD softened as the dollar regained strength ahead of the Fed decision, with limited UK catalysts leaving the pair driven mainly by shifting U.S. rate expectations. Higher U.S. yields kept sterling under gentle pressure. Technically, a retest of 1.3275 could attract buyers, setting up a renewed push toward 1.3370.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 156.88/157.39

· Support: 154.74/154.25

USD/JPY climbed to 155.97 as the Japan earthquake raised doubts about a BoJ hike, while Fed “hawkish cut” expectations kept the dollar supported. The yen weakened broadly. On the chart, price is now teasing a breakout mood—holding above 154.74 keeps buyers in the game, and any dip that stabilizes could easily evolve into a run toward 156.88.

US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)

· Resistance: 59.45/59.91

· Support: 57.99/57.53

WTI slid to $58.85 after Iraq’s West Qurna 2 came back online, adding heavy supply pressure, while progress in Ukraine talks dampened risk appetite. Price is now hovering near the lower trendline of the multi-month triangle — a zone where WTI often throws fakeouts. If buyers defend $57.99, a sharp rebound toward $59.45–59.91 isn’t off the table; a clean break below opens the door to deeper downside.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4245/4274

· Support: 4151/4121

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 59.29/60.15

-Support: 56.61/55.74

Gold slipped to $4,193, dipping back under $4,200 ahead of a potentially “hawkish” Fed cut, while rising U.S. yields added pressure. Price is now wrestling with the descending trendline — a level that has repeatedly faded rallies. If bulls manage to reclaim $4,245, momentum could flip quickly, but failure to hold above the trendline risks another slide toward $4,151.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 48032/48432

· Support: 47400/47081

The Dow futures slipped 0.45% as rising Treasury yields pressured sentiment ahead of the Fed decision, keeping most sectors defensive while tech held firm. Price is circling the descending trendline, where sellers have repeatedly capped momentum. A dip into the 47,400–47,081 support zone could attract bargain hunters, while a clean break above 48,032 would signal a shift back toward upward momentum.

NAS100

· Resistance: 25838/26182

· Support: 25293/25018

The NAS100 eased 0.14%, but tech outperformed with a strong 0.9% sector gain led by Microsoft and Nvidia, while Netflix and Alphabet weighed on communication services. Price is hovering just beneath 25,838, where recent rallies have repeatedly stalled; a brief dip toward 25,293 wouldn’t be surprising before buyers attempt another push. A clean breakout above resistance would open room for a renewed test of the 26,000s.

BTC        

· Resistance: 93065/94517

· Support: 88282/86805

Bitcoin climbed to $90.8k, supported by strong Fed cut expectations and improved sentiment after softer U.S. inflation. Mixed Fed signals capped upside, though MicroStrategy’s fresh 10,624 BTC purchase added a bullish boost. Technically, BTC is still tracking its rising channel, with buyers likely to step in around $88,282 to drive a push toward $93,065.

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