Discussion Harmon

Oil starts the week lower: OPEC+ is expected to start increasing oil production from 1 April - and this amid escalating trade wars expected to hit the global economy....

gold continues to break records

US government bonds have moved back to the upside - markets are betting on the Fed moving to looser policy amid escalating trade wars. The Fed is also expected to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT) from 2 April.

I am actively starting to sell gold for a corrective phase to the $3,000 target. There may be only a few trades in a month

why u think selling gold may be the trades of the month?

because for the most part gold is rising on expectations of trade wars, Fed monetary policy easing, and strong demand from global central banks.But there is a phrase, buy on rumours - sell on facts. I believe that the first signs of corrective decline can be seen already on 2 April, after the official introduction of US trade duties.

I am not saying that it will be a reversal of the trend, I am only saying that it will be a good correction to the level of 3k$ and then after consolidation there will be growth again.

Gold surpassed $3,100 on Monday, again setting an all-time high, as investors turned to the defensive asset on fears that US President Donald Trump's tariff plans would expand the scope of a global trade war and trigger an economic slowdown.

The precious metal added more than 8 per cent in March.

Anxiety levels in the markets are rising ahead of the announcement of retaliatory US duties, which is fuelling increased demand for gold as a defensive tool.If the tariffs announced this week do not turn out to be as harsh as feared, the price of gold may start to decline due to profit taking at the highs reached.

Since the beginning of the year, gold, which is traditionally considered a protective asset in times of political and economic instability, has risen in price by more than 18 per cent. The rally has prompted many banks to revise their forecasts for 2025 upwards.

EURUSD will trade near 1.07 in the next 3 months and 1.08 in the next 6 months

The ‘mirror’ ten per cent duties on imports to the United States from 185 countries, announced on the night of 2 to 3 April 2025, reinforced by increased rates of 17-49 per cent for states with particularly strong asymmetries in trade with the United States, are justified on the grounds of protecting the interests of American manufacturers and taxpayers, the desire to reduce the trade deficit and restore ‘fairness’. However, these measures could severely restructure the international trade system, reduce the U.S. share in it, and cost their economies dearly - the slowdown of its growth and the acceleration of inflation are virtually guaranteed, in contrast to the success of import substitution.

If Trump starts to negotiate and the duties start to be reduced, it will be a very strong bullish surprise for the markets and a strong rally is assured. If there is no easing of duties for a long time, it is very fraught with negative consequences for both risk assets and the economy as a whole.

fantastic fall in gold and silver.buy on rumours - sell on facts. i will make a huge profit at the beginning of the month. congratulations to all.

US dollar weakens sharply against major currencies

the "Trump pattern" 1.0 continues to repeat itself. In European stocks the strongest daily drop in 8 months.oil is painful to watch.

But I'm in a great plus because you can make a very good profit on all these movements. Everything is very predictable

Markets at close: all down strongly, gold and BTC held relatively strong

in US equities strongest daily decline in 5 years

in European equities strongest daily decline in 8 months

in oil strongest daily decline in 7 months

For Gold today, there is a 60% chance of closing the day above the opening price of 3112.68.

The purchase zone is 3104.81-3080.34. But we expect new purchases from the level of 3068.21 and below with a target of 3080.34. In purchases, we reduce the trading volume by 4 times, because the balance.

The sales area is 3123.69-3153.28. But we expect new sales from the level of 3168.14 and above with a target of 3153.28. In sales, we reduce the trading volume by 4 times, because the balance.

This was a humdinger of a week, I must say. Congrats and thank you 🍾 

Have a good weekend everyone! We have some very good trades ahead of us

SP500 dropped by almost 10% in a week = the strongest weekly drop since covidogedon

the user has not enabled history does not release any investor password which makes me think it is fake, moreover the broker ultima markets is not reliable!

BTC renews March lows, falls to lowest since early Nov 2024.

China continues to buy gold for 5 months in a row

gold holds much stronger than all risky assets

There are a lot of good trading ideas planned for this week, follow the system closely, friends!

The whole world will suffer from US duties (and retaliatory measures). But the US will suffer from duties on all countries in general. This will be an ‘exceptional shock’ to the US economy. GDP growth forecasts are rapidly declining. The risk of recession is very high.

I am starting to look at buying silver and gold. There are already some open trades

On 9 April, the US ‘reciprocal duties’ on all countries without exception will come into effect and ‘officially’ a new, most powerful round of trade war between the two largest economies in the world - the US and China - will begin.

There is a rebound in all markets today. Gold is up 3%. Investors are starting to recover from the terrible fall.I believe the market is stabilising now. Metals are looking very good to continue the rally they chose at the beginning of the year

A fantastic end to the trading day.Risk assets have started to fall. Trump announced that he has imposed a 90 day pause on trade duties. The market rebounded strongly. This allowed to earn 10% to the deposit.

Great day. Congratulations to everyone. All ideas on the system are worked out and closed!🥂

The Fed actually recognises that this time the regulator will not be able to painlessly use its main weapon to fight the downturn in the economy and markets. I mean a sharp rate cut to zero and turning on the printing press (QE programme). 

I wrote earlier that Trump's tariffs are purely pro-inflationary. And if against this backdrop and begin to reduce the rate and switch on the printing press, we could very quickly get a new inflationary shock, which could well overshadow the rise in inflation in 2021-2022 to 9%. 

I can't judge about the long term, but in the relatively short term, Trump's actions could easily lead the US economy to stagflation. That is, a downturn in the economy will be accompanied by rising prices, not deflation, as it was during the 2008 crisis. And in such circumstances, the Fed will have to reinvent the wheel to simultaneously fight the downturn in the economy and rising prices.