scwizard (de scwizard)
| Gain : | +117.3% |
| Drawdown | 68.10% |
| Pips: | 736.2 |
| Transactions | 516 |
| Gagné: |
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| Perdu: |
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| Type: | Réel |
| Levier: | 1:50 |
| Trading: | Manuel |
Discussion scwizard
Oct 25, 2010 at 08:19
I hate this market SO much. Apparently trendlines don't work anymore. After all why should trendlines work when Ben is going to print 25 trillion USD of QE2.
Also myfxbook is glitching, I meant to write that text as part of the previous post, but it isn't showing up, and now apparently I can't edit my post.
Also myfxbook is glitching, I meant to write that text as part of the previous post, but it isn't showing up, and now apparently I can't edit my post.
u gotta skate
Oct 26, 2010 at 09:13
(édité Oct 26, 2010 at 09:13)
Look I'm telling you I had a fanatstic day today, I just made a few mistakes that's all.
More like a mistake, a dumb mistake. But the real trades I made, the ones using my indi and GOOD judgement, those won.
What lost was:
1. USD/SEK retardation. 'Oh the short covering was automatic, that means it'll retrace for sure!'
2. Cable chasing. 'Oh it went down on EU open, so let me short it.'
3. A real trade (long cable) that got stopped out due to the Swedish Bank shaking the market. This loss was acceptable.
So all I need to do is turn up my lot size when I'm about to do something smart, and turn down my lot size TO ZERO when I'm about to do something dumb.
More like a mistake, a dumb mistake. But the real trades I made, the ones using my indi and GOOD judgement, those won.
What lost was:
1. USD/SEK retardation. 'Oh the short covering was automatic, that means it'll retrace for sure!'
2. Cable chasing. 'Oh it went down on EU open, so let me short it.'
3. A real trade (long cable) that got stopped out due to the Swedish Bank shaking the market. This loss was acceptable.
So all I need to do is turn up my lot size when I'm about to do something smart, and turn down my lot size TO ZERO when I'm about to do something dumb.
u gotta skate
Oct 26, 2010 at 14:26
(édité Oct 26, 2010 at 14:27)
Two out of two news events guessed correctly today. Pew pew pew.
I shorted GU at this point, because my system said to. However my system also takes into account https://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios
So after checking that page I had to immediately close my position, since 60% of OANDA was short GU, so a GU short wouldn't necessarily be a winning position in that case.
I shorted GU at this point, because my system said to. However my system also takes into account https://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios
So after checking that page I had to immediately close my position, since 60% of OANDA was short GU, so a GU short wouldn't necessarily be a winning position in that case.
u gotta skate
Oct 26, 2010 at 22:43
(édité Oct 26, 2010 at 22:51)
The fed is having a tricky time controling interest rates. The long end is starting to go up again.
Also foreign central banks are raising rates. Sweden did this evening.
Now I'm wondering, what happens if FOMC announces QE2, but someone else joins Hoenig in saying that the fed should think about raising rates.
Also foreign central banks are raising rates. Sweden did this evening.
Now I'm wondering, what happens if FOMC announces QE2, but someone else joins Hoenig in saying that the fed should think about raising rates.
u gotta skate
Oct 28, 2010 at 22:28
(édité Oct 28, 2010 at 22:29)
Short <a href='https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:TIP'>this</a>.
u gotta skate
Oct 29, 2010 at 12:50
Thesis:
News will move the market in its 'true direction' unless its really really surprising.
Also there are some news, such as GDP #, that will never be surprising.
Compared to other types of trading, lately especially, news forecasting has been the most profitable for me. This probably isn't a good sign.
Only way to find out of these profits are consistent is to keep trading news I guess.
News will move the market in its 'true direction' unless its really really surprising.
Also there are some news, such as GDP #, that will never be surprising.
Compared to other types of trading, lately especially, news forecasting has been the most profitable for me. This probably isn't a good sign.
Only way to find out of these profits are consistent is to keep trading news I guess.
u gotta skate
Oct 30, 2010 at 22:30
<i>Stocks and the US Dollar are flat or slightly lower for the month. Everyone is waiting on November when we have a important FOMC meeting, midterm elections and Black Friday. Huge uncertainty will cause people to make large bets in both directions, which will cancel each other out for the most part.
There won't be a crash this October. October crashes happen when people are certain that November's numbers will be super ugly and that we're fucked. There's huge uncertainty right now, but both sides are looking for huge moves. This will drive the VIX up a ton for sure.
Long term recommendations:
VXX: LONG.
Gold: Long.
Yen: Long after they intervene again.
Stocks: Flat.
Dollar: Flat.
Euro: Flat.
TYO: Long (short treasuries). </i>
FAILURE on all counts.
There won't be a crash this October. October crashes happen when people are certain that November's numbers will be super ugly and that we're fucked. There's huge uncertainty right now, but both sides are looking for huge moves. This will drive the VIX up a ton for sure.
Long term recommendations:
VXX: LONG.
Gold: Long.
Yen: Long after they intervene again.
Stocks: Flat.
Dollar: Flat.
Euro: Flat.
TYO: Long (short treasuries). </i>
FAILURE on all counts.
u gotta skate
Oct 31, 2010 at 00:38
Here is the fed's plan:
1. Cause inflation at all costs.
2. Keep the risk free rate of return low despite inflation.
3. High inflation, low risk free rate of return causes people to put money into domestic risk assets.
4. Inflows into domestic risk assets leads to an economic recovery.
The scenario has broken down at all levels.
At first the fed had difficulty causing inflation. Now they've begun however...
Now they're having difficulty keeping the risk free rate of return low. QE2 is supposed to solve that but...
The stock market is still experiencing outflows, and money is instead flowing into foreign countries.
1. Cause inflation at all costs.
2. Keep the risk free rate of return low despite inflation.
3. High inflation, low risk free rate of return causes people to put money into domestic risk assets.
4. Inflows into domestic risk assets leads to an economic recovery.
The scenario has broken down at all levels.
At first the fed had difficulty causing inflation. Now they've begun however...
Now they're having difficulty keeping the risk free rate of return low. QE2 is supposed to solve that but...
The stock market is still experiencing outflows, and money is instead flowing into foreign countries.
u gotta skate
Nov 02, 2010 at 09:52
(édité Nov 02, 2010 at 09:52)
Today I learned that limit orders + news event = bad combination.
Aside from spread widening, it's also possible that the order doesn't get filled at the price you set it at, or doesn't get filled period.
Aside from spread widening, it's also possible that the order doesn't get filled at the price you set it at, or doesn't get filled period.
u gotta skate
