sPhantom Auto Trader (By sPhantom)
| Gain : | +694.0% |
| Drawdown | 91.94% |
| Pips: | 1266.4 |
| Trades | 261 |
| Won: |
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| Lost: |
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| Type: | Real |
| Leverage: | 1:400 |
| Trading: | Automated |
sPhantom Auto Trader Discussion
forex_trader_159748
Member Since Oct 31, 2013
102 posts
Jan 30, 2014 at 19:00
pilotas posted:
I do not believe into miracles. There are no such systems in reality with so quick and so big gain with no or small risk. You want less risk? Then you will get less gain or in longer time. But here is even worse. Potential 1, and only 1 loss is greater than all accumulated gain made before, so statisticaly in long run you will have slower or faster, depending on risk, saw style balance chart. And eventualy sooner or later it will end up with burned account. So the best tactics here is grab and run
:LIKE: 'Grab and Run'
Jan 30, 2014 at 19:28
(edited Jan 30, 2014 at 19:33)
Well, I have to admit that I was a little bit wrong. Made some calculations and here is disclosure.
First of all number in risk parameter is not percent of risk, but percent of possible profit, or as sphantom says it is lot size factor used with account size - 1 is 0.1 lot for each 1000 usd, what will give us 10 usd profit per 10 pips, what is equal 1%.
Second thing is term 'trade' I will use - here it is cycle of 1 or 2 orders which could be open within average distance of 30 pips. in history i found 25-50 pips distances, but 25 was majority. So each trade canand in two theoretical ways - will give determined profit, or give 200 and 170 pips loss per according order, 370 alltogether.
So, if to use risk 3, that will mean that you allways risk 370/10 * 3 = 111% for just 3% profit. It is definitely way to nowhere from very begining.
But if to lower appetite, things are going better, but not very promissing.
Lets say you set 2 as your target. Your risk is 74% for 2% profit, or if to lower setting to 1, your risk will be 37% for 1% profit.
In other words, with setting 2 you will have to finish at least 69 trade cycles in profit to keep at least your deposit safe. If setting is 1, then you need 'just' 47 cycles in profit to remain above deposit. Looking at current stats it looks possible. Now there are 120+ trades, some of them are in cycle pair, so there could be around 60-80 profitable cycles in row.
Anyway it is rollercoaster kind of slow gains, not for everyones temper.
Pitty that sphantom didn't published such explanation. Maybe someones money would be saved. I mean not burned by stopout
First of all number in risk parameter is not percent of risk, but percent of possible profit, or as sphantom says it is lot size factor used with account size - 1 is 0.1 lot for each 1000 usd, what will give us 10 usd profit per 10 pips, what is equal 1%.
Second thing is term 'trade' I will use - here it is cycle of 1 or 2 orders which could be open within average distance of 30 pips. in history i found 25-50 pips distances, but 25 was majority. So each trade canand in two theoretical ways - will give determined profit, or give 200 and 170 pips loss per according order, 370 alltogether.
So, if to use risk 3, that will mean that you allways risk 370/10 * 3 = 111% for just 3% profit. It is definitely way to nowhere from very begining.
But if to lower appetite, things are going better, but not very promissing.
Lets say you set 2 as your target. Your risk is 74% for 2% profit, or if to lower setting to 1, your risk will be 37% for 1% profit.
In other words, with setting 2 you will have to finish at least 69 trade cycles in profit to keep at least your deposit safe. If setting is 1, then you need 'just' 47 cycles in profit to remain above deposit. Looking at current stats it looks possible. Now there are 120+ trades, some of them are in cycle pair, so there could be around 60-80 profitable cycles in row.
Anyway it is rollercoaster kind of slow gains, not for everyones temper.
Pitty that sphantom didn't published such explanation. Maybe someones money would be saved. I mean not burned by stopout
Jan 30, 2014 at 19:36
(edited Jan 30, 2014 at 19:37)
And one more thing to consider - calculations are made for ideal conditions, with no slippage, requotes and so on. If you would look at history, many trades gained 9 or less pips. Some users reported here 6 or even 4 pips instead of 10. So reality is not so promissing like theory.
Member Since Oct 06, 2013
19 posts
Jan 30, 2014 at 20:03
@sPhantom Can you comment on when you will close out these disastrous trades and what your 'group of live analysts, in addition to your advanced market watcher software' (from your website) were thinking when taking these trades in the first place, please?
Whilst I am not adverse to the drawdown (most systems will suffer at some point) and have no issue with the loss of investment, your lack of communication and your inaction during the past few trades has been a cause for concern and may put off future purchasers of your trading robot.
Whilst I am not adverse to the drawdown (most systems will suffer at some point) and have no issue with the loss of investment, your lack of communication and your inaction during the past few trades has been a cause for concern and may put off future purchasers of your trading robot.
Jan 30, 2014 at 20:04
osssmoretti posted:
Where is sphantom team? what's the plan now? big DD today....
They have already replied: 'S/L and T/P are fixed'😞; so or the price reverse and hit the take profit or we will take the full s/l!
Running only Expert advisors with good long term backtests and nice forward tests
Jan 30, 2014 at 20:04
OK. Just to run this idea past you guys. M5 and M15 and M30 are setting up for a buy entry point soon. I am looking at MACD for this at the momet. H1 is lagging I would give it 3 hours and it should also set up a buy signal.
H4 is way behind it still saying sell but that is ussually for the larger trend anyway.
Looking to exit at 1.35850. Still got to nail the entry piont and that determines the lot size.
sPhantom take days to close out these large DD trades. Had one once go over a weekend that gave me grey hair. They ussually close out in the profit, but this trade does look quite sketchy technially,....... fundamentally well we know that answer dont we.
H4 is way behind it still saying sell but that is ussually for the larger trend anyway.
Looking to exit at 1.35850. Still got to nail the entry piont and that determines the lot size.
sPhantom take days to close out these large DD trades. Had one once go over a weekend that gave me grey hair. They ussually close out in the profit, but this trade does look quite sketchy technially,....... fundamentally well we know that answer dont we.
Member Since Dec 21, 2013
11 posts
Jan 30, 2014 at 20:05
hedging guys is the only way to get out of this crises !
Jan 30, 2014 at 20:06
FXJester posted:
Agree, trading just before the FOMC was mad.
However its probably my fault - every single EA I buy tanks as soon as I buy it - I bought this one a couple of weeks ago - sorry about that!
I'm only on 10% risk - so not catastrophic.
Then i'm a bit more fortunate than you 😄 every single EA tanks during my close observation.
