Tom'sEa WPFX LIVE (By TomsEaWPFXlive)
The user has deleted this system.
Tom'sEa WPFX LIVE Discussion
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 17:08
Fughe,
I don't think you can quantify risk like that here as there is no stop loss to speak of.
Bottom line for me is that I cannot trade any smaller than a microlot and the nearest stop is 600 pips away.... Nothing we can do about either.
If one increase lot sizes any less during the sequence it wil not recover so there are not many options to manage risk using lot size, % increases and stops.
One can use other tools to manage risk though, like max DD tollerance and close outs, deactivate the EA when it gets too much, diversify, keep lower risk levels and make sure there is enough capital in there so risk is kept within reasonable guidelines.
I honestly do not think you can de-risk Tom's EA from its current form.
If one is really so risk adverse, I am sure that by trading only EURGBP on RL1 with 4/5k account, one will never go bust and will have wonderful sleep at night :-) But, might not make much money either.
Bear in mind I am not a programmer though and I have never developed an EA, I see it from manual trading perspective.
Cheers
I don't think you can quantify risk like that here as there is no stop loss to speak of.
Bottom line for me is that I cannot trade any smaller than a microlot and the nearest stop is 600 pips away.... Nothing we can do about either.
If one increase lot sizes any less during the sequence it wil not recover so there are not many options to manage risk using lot size, % increases and stops.
One can use other tools to manage risk though, like max DD tollerance and close outs, deactivate the EA when it gets too much, diversify, keep lower risk levels and make sure there is enough capital in there so risk is kept within reasonable guidelines.
I honestly do not think you can de-risk Tom's EA from its current form.
If one is really so risk adverse, I am sure that by trading only EURGBP on RL1 with 4/5k account, one will never go bust and will have wonderful sleep at night :-) But, might not make much money either.
Bear in mind I am not a programmer though and I have never developed an EA, I see it from manual trading perspective.
Cheers
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 17:21
drsong123 posted:
....Remember, TomEA is one of rare profitable methods to trade range bound market that happen 60-80% of time. It should not be the only trading technique for your portfolio......
For me, this really describes what Tom's is and how to use it. In one sentence!
Don't need anything else, really, but this sentence.
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 17:38
...oh dear.....
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-pushes-out-low-rate-pledge-to-late-2014-2012-01-25-1231550?link=MW_pulse
Thanks Bernanke 😲
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-pushes-out-low-rate-pledge-to-late-2014-2012-01-25-1231550?link=MW_pulse
Thanks Bernanke 😲
Jan 25, 2012 at 17:54
I have no insight knowledge about why those forex brokers refuse to link TomEa. but I will not be surprised to hear that martingale technique is too risk for their risk managment. As to matter of fact, martingale technique makes those brokers' stinky tactics, like stop running and spiking spread in order to wipe out your account, completely ineffective. that's why they hate TomEa. but it means to me TomEa is most safe trading method around. I don't read any news. based on my reading on COT data, commercial is selling on sp index, gold and euro and all commodity. only small investors hold record high long position. it spells perfect setup for large downside move ahead.
ss
ss
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 18:06
drsong123 posted:
I have no insight knowledge about why those forex brokers refuse to link TomEa. but I will not be surprised to hear that martingale technique is too risk for their risk managment.
Can you expand on that? Have you encountered any problems using Tom's EA with any broker? I would be surprised if you did! Such a slow moving affair! Hardly an Asian session scalper or an MDP!
drsong123 posted:
I don't read any news. based on my reading on COT data, commercial is selling on sp index, gold and euro and all commodity. only small investors hold record high long position. it spells perfect setup for large downside move ahead.
ss
I agree, but.....damn Bernanke....sooo close!
DDs will get bigger, memories of EURJPY come to mind.....
Jan 25, 2012 at 18:29
It is a pretty standard calculation that I have seen in a lot of EAs to calculate risk. Quick question.....who has an initial opening size larger than 0.01, and what is your risk level and account equity? That will allow me to accurately calculate how they are figuring it and know for sure if i am right.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 18:38
Fughe,
on my demo I now have 20k, RL2 and it starts @ 0.04
on my demo I now have 20k, RL2 and it starts @ 0.04
Jan 25, 2012 at 18:40
tradingshed posted:
Can you expand on that? Have you encountered any problems using Tom's EA with any broker? I would be surprised if you did! Such a slow moving affair! Hardly an Asian session scalper or an MDP!
I had Toms on Askobid last month but removed it in error when we upgraded, and have not been able to reinstall it, eiither on my live account or on a new demo. Consequently I am stuck with a large sell position that I can't hedge with Tom. It instals fine on 5 other brokers I use and will instal on any other new demos I try.
Jan 25, 2012 at 18:58
Hi, Fughe
please take look one of my experiment from following link, which I setup a mini account, starting 0.15 lot. in several days, margin call results in 47% actual loss. I used eurusd and gbpusd with rl3 initially. I manually closed one largest loss position before margin call and lower the rl to 1. very interesting execise.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/drsong123/vps-fxdd-demo-tomea-mini/224569/IsWQeKWJfX5FGNKlQ9tY
ss
please take look one of my experiment from following link, which I setup a mini account, starting 0.15 lot. in several days, margin call results in 47% actual loss. I used eurusd and gbpusd with rl3 initially. I manually closed one largest loss position before margin call and lower the rl to 1. very interesting execise.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/drsong123/vps-fxdd-demo-tomea-mini/224569/IsWQeKWJfX5FGNKlQ9tY
ss
Jan 25, 2012 at 19:19
tradingshed posted:
Fughe,
on my demo I now have 20k, RL2 and it starts @ 0.04
Alright, from those calculations, either they are using (AccountEquity*RiskPercentage)/1,000,000 or they are using my original guess, but adding in a 10x multiplier later in the calculation. I know, it sounds stupid, but it has it's uses for doing it that way.
So, with that info, we will just assume the calculation is bassed on a 1mil diviso instead of 10mil.
So you can accurately calculate the expected lot size for an account equity based on the risk.
$1000 using risk 1 gives 0.001 lot or one nano lot. Great if you have a US based account with 50:1 leverage. That would be just like having a normal account with $1000, but only having access to micro lots. I say that because I know some US brokers allow nanolots.
So, if you have access to microlots......and you have a $1000 and change the risk to 3......the lot size would be....0.003 or...0.01lot since it will default to the smallest lot size. So, technically, if you don't have access to nano lots, then on a $1000 account, your minimum risk is actually 10%.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Jan 25, 2012 at 19:23
drsong123 posted:
Hi, Fughe
please take look one of my experiment from following link, which I setup a mini account, starting 0.15 lot. in several days, margin call results in 47% actual loss. I used eurusd and gbpusd with rl3 initially. I manually closed one largest loss position before margin call and lower the rl to 1. very interesting execise.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/drsong123/vps-fxdd-demo-tomea-mini/224569/IsWQeKWJfX5FGNKlQ9tY
ss
Yeah, that is due to the leverage of 50:1 for your account. I was mainly referring to overseas accounts which often allow margin levels of 500:1. You get get stopped out on 500:1 and your account is virtually gone.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 20:22
(edited Jan 25, 2012 at 20:30)
drsong123 posted:
Hi, Fughe
please take look one of my experiment from following link, which I setup a mini account, starting 0.15 lot. in several days, margin call results in 47% actual loss. I used eurusd and gbpusd with rl3 initially. I manually closed one largest loss position before margin call and lower the rl to 1. very interesting execise.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/drsong123/vps-fxdd-demo-tomea-mini/224569/IsWQeKWJfX5FGNKlQ9tY
ss
I seem to recall that they recommended trading minilots only with 100k plus accounts?
In your experiment you are trading a mixture of microlots and minilots on a $5k account. With RL3?
Far too risky no? Did I understand right? Sorry, I missed the purpose of the exercise?
Jan 25, 2012 at 20:27
I gotta say, I am a bit curious too. i looked through the trades taken and there is definitely something wrong with the lot sizing.
tradingshed posted:
drsong123 posted:
Hi, Fughe
please take look one of my experiment from following link, which I setup a mini account, starting 0.15 lot. in several days, margin call results in 47% actual loss. I used eurusd and gbpusd with rl3 initially. I manually closed one largest loss position before margin call and lower the rl to 1. very interesting execise.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/drsong123/vps-fxdd-demo-tomea-mini/224569/IsWQeKWJfX5FGNKlQ9tY
ss
I seem to recall that they recommended trading minilots only with 100k plud accounts?
In your experiment you are trading a mixture of microlots and minilots on a $5k account. With RL3?
Far too risky no? Did I understand right? Sorry, I missed the purpose of the exercise?
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Jan 25, 2012 at 20:46
Tradingshed, Ivan, Fughe
Yes I'm sweating; current figures
Bal 2149 Equity 1426 margin 121 Free margin 1306 margin level 1172%
Both eur usd and gbp usd have trades open at .12 in draw down, what im trying to work out, when the trades at .15 open what my margn level will be and what do i need to look for.
Normally take my trading in my stride but I have never had a 40% DD before and to be honest I didnt expect it be this large but that is my naivety.
Yes I'm sweating; current figures
Bal 2149 Equity 1426 margin 121 Free margin 1306 margin level 1172%
Both eur usd and gbp usd have trades open at .12 in draw down, what im trying to work out, when the trades at .15 open what my margn level will be and what do i need to look for.
Normally take my trading in my stride but I have never had a 40% DD before and to be honest I didnt expect it be this large but that is my naivety.
Jan 25, 2012 at 20:55
chrissav posted:
Tradingshed, Ivan, Fughe
Yes I'm sweating; current figures
Bal 2149 Equity 1426 margin 121 Free margin 1306 margin level 1172%
Both eur usd and gbp usd have trades open at .12 in draw down, what im trying to work out, when the trades at .15 open what my margn level will be and what do i need to look for.
Normally take my trading in my stride but I have never had a 40% DD before and to be honest I didnt expect it be this large but that is my naivety.
First....what is you account leverage?
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Jan 25, 2012 at 21:09
chrissav posted:
1:500 Settings eur usd 2 and gbp usd 1 account in sterling
Well, in theory, you should be fine. 😀 If I remember correctly, they recommend at least $3000 for 2 pairs though. I may be wrong, can't remember for sure. Anyway....the first thing you should do is make sure you bring the account equity up to their minimum recommended level for using 2 pairs. if you can't do that....then try to ignore the account as much as humanly possible. TEA should recover......should. The best thing you can do is not refrain from interference. If you have stuff you can sell to add money to your account, NOW is the time to do it. The last thing you want to do is not allow TEA to work properly by not having the proper equity. Personally, with what i know about it now, I would recommend bringing you account equity up to at least $10k per pair and setting your risk to 1 on each pair (assuming you have access to micro-lots and not nano-lots.
That is my opinion and you are welcome to use anything in there you find useful.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
