19 November 2024 COT Report

Gold (XAU/USD)

Non-Commercial (Speculators):

Long: 80.49%

Short: 82.05%

Speculators are almost equally split, with a slight short bias (82.05%). This suggests indecision or potential consolidation.


Commercial (Hedgers):

Long: 17.95%

Short: 19.51%

Commercials are slightly short-biased, which aligns with the notion of hedging against a potential downtrend.



Trend and Direction:

Short-Term: Speculators’ near-parity signals neutral/consolidation, with a slight bearish sentiment due to the minor short dominance.

Medium to Long-Term: Slightly bearish due to commercial hedging against price increases.



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WTI (Crude Oil)

Non-Commercial (Speculators):

Long: 72.68%

Short: 27.32%

Speculators are heavily long, indicating a strong bullish sentiment.


Commercial (Hedgers):

Long: 43.95%

Short: 56.05%

Commercials are short-biased, hedging against potential price increases (a countertrend move).



Trend and Direction:

Short-Term: Strong bullish momentum due to the significant speculative long positions.

Medium to Long-Term: Bullish, as speculators dominate and commercials are likely hedging against rising prices.



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S&P 500 (ES Futures)

Non-Commercial (Speculators):

Long: 53.23%

Short: 46.37%

Speculators have a slight long bias, indicating a bullish sentiment.


Commercial (Hedgers):

Long: 47.26%

Short: 52.74%

Commercials are short-biased, likely hedging against potential price increases.



Trend and Direction:

Short-Term: Mildly bullish, given the slight speculative long dominance.

Medium to Long-Term: Neutral to bullish, as the bias is not overwhelmingly one-sided.



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Summary of Trends

Key Notes:

For Gold, consolidation or slight downward movement may occur unless speculative shorts unwind.

For WTI, bullish momentum is strong and could continue.

For the S&P 500, cautious optimism exists, but the trend is not as strong as for crude oil.