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How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 24, 2014 at 06:41
@Cholipop I've been at this a decade. My statement is based on hard won lessons over the years. You can back test all you want, I strongly suggest that people who have any intention of getting somewhere don't trust it at all. There's just to many factors that prohibit an accurate result, with MT anyway... Even testing will still give a different result to live account. There is only one way to really test a system, that's live with a funded account.
How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 20:21
It's actually the events as well, I'm always changing the pairs it's running on, so the events arrive at different time. That's one of the reason why using the API is better. Everything acts on the same data at the same time.
How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 20:21
Look even on live tests, I've got one on O running two accounts same code, just different trade sizes. One has 11 trades open the other 20. The difference ? The spread. I have code watching what's going on spread wise and it will sit on it's hands if it doesn't like the spread. We're talking milliseconds here between quires. You're not going to get an accurate results from a free piece of software that makes up data is it goes along. Next back test you run look at the bottom right corner. See the data coming through. Then run it again, it will pull data again. So what i...
How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 13:49
Probabaly already made you throw some very good systems in the dustbin and made you try losing ones. Look do the test, take your EA run it for a week, then back test the same week. Compare the results. If you can run it on a second broker. You'll end up with three sets of results. You just can't build a future on that. And you're wasting your time trying. My advice to you. Test live, you see very quickly if you like the system or not.
How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 13:43
Nope, as I said, use a different platform. Your only hope.
How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 13:42
@CrazyTrader Well it's pretty useless for that as well. Try more than 1 pair....
How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 13:39
I test. Never bothered with backtesting. It's useless.
Johnpaul77
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 10:10
No one I know is a signal seller or fund manager. All the guys I know value their time more then the income. Clients take time. So they don't brag no, but I don't think they'll have any problem to display publicly if it was in their interest.
Johnpaul77
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 10:06
I suppose this is the point where I have to choose if I get into an argument about what pro's do and don't do and point out that you don't speak for any pro's, you only speak for yourself. I mean it's not like a handle like master guru is subtle really is it ? Not what the "pro's" would do, eh ?And I suppose I can google around and find some jurisdictions where statements are mandatory. Or I can crack a beer, go wash my car and pack my bags. Guess I'll do the latter...
How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 10:03
There's no short cuts, fx takes time, money and effort. Lots of time and effort. And money...
How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 10:03
Just test it. You can run as many instances of MT as you want to. I usually have about 10 going. If you have an idea code it, run it. See what happens. Your alternative is to ditch MT and write your own systems in JAVA or C++ and go test it on Oanda's data...Can also try something ike this: https://pepperstone.com/trading-platforms/ctrader-calgo.phpI don't know how accurate they are, but quite frankly anything will be more accurate than MT.
How reliable is backtests?
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 07:08
It's very unreliable. MT makes up the data as it goes along. You'll get a different result from running a test while online and while offline. You'll get a different result on a different processor. It's got no use other than to see if your code is working.
Johnpaul77
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 06:58
An I just want to point, there's folks I know personally on this board, as in I have beers with them when I'm in Asia, that's been making a living of Fx trading for over a decade. Before Metatrader was even a thing. One in particular had his own fund for a few years.So if you think there's just a bunch of losers here, I have news for you mate. There's some serious traders lurking around the place.
Johnpaul77
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 06:56
Pro traders display all the time, it's called a monthly statement and kind of compulsory in the investment industry.
Need VPS Service
in
Galvenais
Sep 23, 2014 at 06:49
@StoneHeart Ivan, sorry bit off topic, but how do you find Instaforex ? I had a look at them, but the reviews are terrible....
Johnpaul77
in
Galvenais
Sep 22, 2014 at 11:12
My parents have their retirement funds with Alan Gray. Alan Gray lost 50% of that in 2008. Not a cent was refunded nor will it ever be. Nor were any commissions repaid. Didn't even get a sorry. And they are one of the best around. I think your view on this is not realistic. That's just not how investing works. It's funny how everyone wants to share the profit, but no one wants to share the risk. Everyone draws down. JP just took his a little bit harder than normal and he talks to much. But I don't see any problem here. He drew down he must get over it and carry on, make the mon...
Johnpaul77
in
Galvenais
Sep 22, 2014 at 09:54
Must remember we're talking about 3 parties here, them, the broker and the signal distibutors. Unlikley all of them would be in on a con. Unlike Madoff who didn't even bother to trade, these guys trades were handled by other parties in the clients accounts. They never took possesion of clients money.
Johnpaul77
in
Galvenais
Sep 22, 2014 at 09:00
It's very unlikely they were working with a broker. They're just 4 dudes in Indo. Wether they're pro or amateurs is irrlevent really to the question which is, was it a scam ? I don't believe it was. Just 4 dudes that traded for their own accounts and along the way they built a client base for their signals using the singal distribution software that's now so widely and easily available. Yes, they cocked up, but was it a scam ? Unlikely.
How to add lotsize to trade already open?
in
Programmēšana
Sep 22, 2014 at 07:11
Yes, MT5 is purely positional, MT4 is purely trade based and Oanda is both. Oanda is in fact working on a merge function for open trades since they limit the numbers of open trades, hopefully one of these days I'll be able to do serious volume on them.
Johnpaul77
in
Galvenais
Sep 22, 2014 at 06:59
Your average western hedge fund lasts about 5 years. There's nothing unusual that happened here that I can see that would indicate they were running a scam.
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