IC MARKETS REAL 313166 Omówić

Starting to get a nice looking equity curve. What Eas are doing well for you these days? cheers :)

Reverse grid martingale. As of 19 December I reduced the grid to 5 (pips?), martingale has always been 1.11x, and all trades have been against the trend. Basically counts on trading the pullbacks / retracements in the market, especially since the market moves in cycles.

Been okay, except the recent jumps with USDJPY - I had to manually intervene as I didn't like the high drawdown, though the market and positions worked out today (luckily). I've a mind to take this one off my pairs as I am not keen on its high volatility (love the profits, hate the risk).

I don't know why but I didn't know anyone posted in this discussion. I was thinking of using this as a diary to keep tabs on my changes with this account, for future reference.

Using a demo account with the same strategy but higher risk (starting lots are 0.03, more pairs, no manual intervention).

My main aim is to make 10% per week with my margin level (risk) at a minimum of 100x (10,000%). During today's USDJPY movement, 'margin used' reached as low as 350% (3.5x available margin) - too low for my comfort! As the market moves and trades are opened / closed, my margin level is fluctuating wildly between 12,000%+ and 2900% (or less). I am contributing my wages to increase available margin in my account, but it is slow going.

Using a spreadsheet, I have calculated that at 10% per week (compounded), and contributing $2000 a fortnight, I will end up with $2 million by December 2014. But that is only a 'linear' calculation (linear as in the 10% 'flat' return, though the compounding factor means it produces logarithmic results). 😎

Proving difficult to maintain consistent returns during the low volatility Christmas / NY period.

Guess it was looking good up until about yesterday / this week. I had a hunch I shoulda closed all trades earlier, but I didn't take it. So, as with other grid martingales, they work well for a month then a strong trend hits and they get hammered. I hoped I had enough margin and low enough risk to weather any strong trend, however the EURUSD kept increasing (and GPBUSD to a lesser extent) and despite manual intervention I could not sustain the losing trades.

Available margin has been $-1000+, so I have decided to use a script to close all open trades. My balance returns somewhat to a level of my deposits (all profits for the month have been wiped). I will continue the same strategy but not use EURUSD and GBPUSD as the strong trends need greater margins and a lower grid setting.

Now using default settings of 30 for the grid spacing, on pairs USDJPY, EURCHF, AUDUSD, XAUUSD. Try again?

My demo account continues without manual intervention, but that too is seeing an imminent margin call. This EA is meant to close all trades as a basket, however it will hold them until they are in a net profit (ie. the market reverses enough).

I was meddling with the settings to try to prevent a repeat of EURUSD, but I didn't fix one of two settings, which meant all positions for XAUUSD were closed for a loss of $-2000.

Positive: at least I know that setting refers to the pair loss only, not all open positions.
Negative: that was 20% loss in real money.

I have decided to reduce my risk and use the EA on ONE PAIR ONLY: EURCHF, but at my custom smaller grid settings. I know I had $10,000 with four pairs and turned that into $25,000, but I think I was simply lucky the market was ranging right at the time.

I need to find the optimum settings of this EA before proceeding (to lose further money). Currently doing optimisation tests...

...make that AUDUSD and EURCHF. The margin used was too small so I think another pair can't hurt (hopefully!)???

Margin was as low recently as 4400% (4.4x deposits). Now hovering around 36,600% (366x), but that quickly gets chewed when the market trends and positions are opened with increasing size. Seems two pairs are okay for now (AUDUSD and EURCHF)... I won't add another pair until I have made it to $20,000, at which point it will be approximately $6666 per pair (currently ~$4000 per pair). This won't be long, as I am contributing extra when I receive my commissions returned around 12 January (looking like $4000+)

Today is looking like 5%+ return, which is above my target of 2%, so I will be happy to have more margin per pair at a small cost of daily % return.

Conducting some optimization tests to determine the best settings. After which I will conduct some optimization tests on different pairs using the best settings I find. Very slow-going testing: I am using one Metatrader instance for testing on my VPS so as not to use up too much resources (approximately 50-60% used currently). About a dozen different settings which need to be tested - currently testing the second setting.

BluePanther posted:
...make that AUDUSD and EURCHF. The margin used was too small so I think another pair can't hurt (hopefully!)???

Aims: a) 2%+ daily return b) $10,000 per pair

Plan:
a) @$20,000 assess daily returns and risks, keeping in mind $24,000 with five pairs ($5000/pair) risked too much with EURUSD in a strong trend. Add a third pair only if comfortable risk levels were maintained.
b) @$30,000 as above - only add 4th pair if risk level is comfortable ($7500/pair).
c) keep 3 pairs until $40,000.

(Subject to pair tests later this month.)

Correction: Commissions returned will only be a quarter of what myfxbook says - this tally is TOTAL commissions paid (IC Markets offer $1.60 per RLT - @460 lots I can expect perhaps $736 commissions returned...? Disappointed it won't be $4000!)

Good to see that (with the exception of the last two days) my profit factor has been over 2 every day:

https://www.mt4i.com/users/313166

...I will stay focused, I will stay focused, I will stay focused!

Added $3000 ($1000 for last fortnight and $2000 for this fortnight): total deposits = $13,705

Despite the lure of higher returns, I will not add another pair until I have reached at least $20,000, and even then I will keep in mind my rule that I wish to maintain $10,000 per 0.01 lots traded per pair.

Currently keeping the starting lots of EURCHF and AUDUSD @ 0.01 lots. I will add another pair before I decide to increase starting lots. I am itching to add EURUSD, GBPUSD and especially XAUUSD due to their volatility and liquidity!

Margin available was at 350,000+% - the highest I have EVER seen it in any of my accounts! Feels nice to have the margin, but I know it is not enough for a black swan event.

Stay focused! I have only really been trying this system for the holiday period, so I can't wait to see how well it will perform during normal trading later this year! I'm excited!

309,127% Margin (3091 x Margin used of $4):

Demo 831240 added: Balance $10,000; testing same strategy except with additional pair XAUUSD. If I am happy with margin requirements I may add this pair sooner than $20,000. Current returns are at an anaemic rates... 😞

Update: Margin on both Demo and Real are at just over 4000% (40x).

XAUUSD (Demo only) = exposure of 0.58%. Was 0.25 lots, now 0.43 lots. Was 14 trades, now 18 trades. XAUUSD very volatile but excellent for this strategy (almost feels like a wild animal that I must tame - exciting stuff!)

...yeah, crazy freaky volatility XAUUSD! Watching demo account on mobile MT4 and witnessed first-hand the considerable 3%+ drawdown suddenly flip and become a 25%+ profit!!

Damn! Shoulda put XAUUSD on my real account! Mind you, this move was favourable. I need to keep in mind if the move was unfavourable.

Or is this a perfect example of how Demo ALWAYS outperforms Real?

Before and After screenshot of my Demo account re: XAUUSD 'bungee-jump' 😎

Screenshots taken 30 minutes apart (when myfxbook Demo page updated).

Not happy about current exposure on my account (mainly due to EURCHF). Margin 600% (6x). This is the same setup I had for the EURUSD which blew $15,000 last time because I held it thinking it would reverse sooner rather than later (reversed later). It is only a matter of time, but the question is if I have enough margin in my account to weather the movement.

No, I don't want a repeat of EURUSD incident. I have closed all positions with CloseAll script, and I am putting EA on only XAUUSD (damn, I wish I got that movement yesterday on my real account! Damn, too many regrets over all that money I could have in my account which I don't).

3 Feet From Gold
One of the most common causes of failure is quitting when one is overtaken by temporary defeat ~ Napoleon Hill.
In his book “Think and grow rich”, Napoleon tells the story of the miner who lost a fortune because he quit just three feet from gold.
This story is valuable because it highlights the fact that many people give up on their dreams way too early and too easily.
It was back in the day, and our subject was overcome by the “gold rush fever”.
He left his home in Maryland and headed west to Colorado where he staked a claim and got to work with pick and shovel…
The going was tough but his lust for gold was more determined… after weeks of labour he was rewarded by the discovery of shining gold ore…
He figured he’d need machinery to bring the ore to the surface, so he quietly covered the mine and returned home to Maryland to tell his relatives and few neighbours of the strike.
They got together some money for the machinery and had it shipped to the mine.
When the first car of ore went to the smelter, the returns proved they had one of the richest mines in Colorado…
A few more cars of the ore would clear the debts and then would come the big profits!!
Down went the drills and up went the hopes. Then something happened… the vein or ore suddenly disappeared. He had come to the end of the rainbow, the pot of gold was no longer there…
He drilled on and on, desperately trying to pick up the vein again but all to no use.
Finally he decided to quit. He sold the machinery to a junk man for a few hundred dollars and took the train back home.
(Some junk men are dumb but not this one)
He called in a mining engineer to look at the mine and do a little calculating. The engineer advised that the project had failed because the owner wasn’t familiar with fault lines…
His calculations showed that the vein would be picked up… (and get this)
JUST THREE FEET from where digging had stopped!
And that’s exactly where it WAS found.
The junk man took millions of dollars’ worth of gold from the mine because he knew enough to seek expert counsel before giving up.
Imagine how the old miner must have felt when he found out the news…
As it turned out, the he went on to get rich in business, no doubt due to the expensive lessons he’d learned in Colorado.
Do you think he would have ever given up so easily or taken no for an answer after that?
No way!
Upon reflection… some of the biggest breakthroughs in my life happened shortly after things seemed completely hopeless, but I pushed for the breakthrough…
Why not reflect on this story as you go about digging for “gold” in your own life.
…And next time you feel down and out, or feel like quitting…
Think just how close you could be digging to gold.
To your success,
Sean Roach and the Catapult Team.

Since 24 hours ago, 'Open 1st Order by RSI' indicator has been selected - with promising results! I hate drawdown, so it is good to see this setting help the EA close all orders more promptly (helping to avoid the EURUSD incident).

RSI settings at 15 and 85 on RSI period 5. I am thinking 0.01 lots per $6,000 is adequate margin. So far (only today) grid has reached a max trade size of 0.14 (therefore, 0.02 would have resulted in a max trade size of 0.28 today). Is it too soon to up the risk...? 😎

Later, I hope to increase this to 0.01 per $10,000 (just in case).

Well, two pairs now with AUDUSD and XAUUSD @0.01 lots. I think this is quite safe. 😎