UK job market stronger than expected but weaker than the US

Expert market comment made by senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: UK job market stronger than expected but weaker than the US

FxPro | 302 dias atrás

In the UK, jobless claims rose by 23.7K in August, much better than the 95.5K expected and the 102.3K rise in the previous month. This is relatively positive data as it suggests that the rate of deterioration in the UK labour market is slowing. However, this is still the fastest claims growth since the unemployment spike in 2020 and the 2008 financial crisis.

At the same time, wage growth continues to slow, rising by 4% year on year in the three months to July. This is a sharp slowdown from 4.6% in the previous month and 5.7% two months ago, although wage growth is still above inflation at 2.2% year-on-year.

The data did not change the expectations of market analysts, who still do not expect a rate change next week but are forecasting a rate cut in November. The employment data temporarily supported the Pound as speculators played up the positive gap between expectations and reality. GBPUSD found support on Tuesday on the drop to the 1.3050 level, which looks like a bullish attempt to end the corrective pullback and take the Pound into a new round of growth.

While it is wise to wait for tomorrow's UK CPI figures, which will be released on Wednesday morning, the main movement may be delayed until similar statistics are released from the US. For now, we can only compare labour market figures, and the US figures look stronger. This gives the Bank of England a greater degree of urgency to ease policy than the US, creating bearish risks for GBPUSD.

By the FxPro Analyst Team

UK job market stronger than expected but weaker than the US

Regulamento: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)

Etiquetas: Análise GBPUSD

ATFX Market Outlook 9th July 2025

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated the global trade war by announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and reiterated that long-threatened tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are also imminent. U.S. equities ended mixed as investors awaited further clarity on trade policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.07%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.03%

ATFX | 18 h 40 min atrás

ATFX Market Outlook 8th July 2025

U.S. President Trump signed an order delaying “reciprocal” tariffs from July 9 to August 1 and warned of steep hikes from that date, escalating trade tensions. U.S. stocks closed sharply lower, with the Dow down 0.94%, the S&P 500 falling 0.79%, and the Nasdaq dropping 0.92%. Tesla also tumbled after Elon Musk announced plans to launch a new political party.

ATFX | 2 dias atrás

ATFX Market Outlook 7th July 2025

U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies after President Trump’s landmark tax cut bill was passed, amid mounting pressure on countries to strike trade deals with Washington. As markets brace for the July 9 tariff deadline—targeting countries like Japan that have yet to reach agreements—the dollar index slipped 0.1% to 96.92.

ATFX | 3 dias atrás

Dollar Mixed as Tariff Tensions Rise and Jobs Data Buoys Fed Outlook | 4th July, 2025

On July 4, strong U.S. jobs data boosts the dollar, but Trump’s tariff warning sparks trade uncertainty. USD/CAD dips near 1.3600 as oil rebounds; AUD/USD slips below 0.6650. NZD/USD holds near 0.6050, GBP/USD steadies at 1.3650, and USD/CNY stays firm as PBOC signals caution. Markets eye ISM data and tariff updates for next moves.

Moneta Markets | 5 dias atrás

ATFX Market Outlook 4th July 2025

The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, beating expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Traders are now betting that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before September. Meanwhile, the House narrowly passed Trump's major fiscal bill by a vote of 218 to 214. U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday, hitting fresh record highs.

ATFX | 6 dias atrás

Rate Shifts Steer FX Markets as Silver Holds Strong

On July 3, silver stays firm above $35.40 as Fed cut bets persist. EUR/USD holds near 1.1800, while GBP/USD lingers near 1.3585 ahead of UK jobs data. JPY strengthens after BoJ signals a hawkish pause. AUD/USD slips on weak trade surplus. Focus turns to US NFP and ISM data for market direction before the US holiday break.

Moneta Markets | 6 dias atrás

ATFX Market Outlook 3rd July 2025

Wednesday’s ADP report showed a surprise decline of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, marking the first contraction since March 2023 as economic uncertainty weighed on hiring. U.S. equities surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs, driven by gains in tech stocks and relief following the U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement, which eased concerns over prolonged trade tensions

ATFX | 7 dias atrás

GBP/USD at the top of a bullish channel

GBP/USD loses momentum near three-year high, tests the channel’s upper band. Short-term bias remains bullish, but overbought conditions are evident. Bullish outlook remains intact above 1.3450.

XM Group | 7 dias atrás

EURUSD	1.17379	GBPUSD	1.36072	AUDUSD	0.65503
USDJPY	146.16	USDCAD	1.3679	USDCHF	0.79388