Is what's happening in the contest even remotely possible?
Členom od Oct 06, 2010
2 príspevkov
Feb 21, 2012 at 21:02
Looking over the top gainers from this current month's contest (some are already > 3000% for the first 20 days), I have to wonder:
Let's say you take the guy in first right now. (Currently at 3198.20% gain) Now, let's pretend he actually threw down $50,000 in the beginning, and instead of trading demo, he traded a real account with the SAME EXACT trades he's been doing, trade for trade.
Would he still be at 3198% gain at this point?
I almost have a hard time believing this. What's more likely to me is that whatever broker he's using would either screw him over during live trades so that his gain is not so high, or perhaps see the gains he's making and then do something 'shifty' behind scenes and take profit from it and he would end up with very little.
Any thoughts/comments?
Let's say you take the guy in first right now. (Currently at 3198.20% gain) Now, let's pretend he actually threw down $50,000 in the beginning, and instead of trading demo, he traded a real account with the SAME EXACT trades he's been doing, trade for trade.
Would he still be at 3198% gain at this point?
I almost have a hard time believing this. What's more likely to me is that whatever broker he's using would either screw him over during live trades so that his gain is not so high, or perhaps see the gains he's making and then do something 'shifty' behind scenes and take profit from it and he would end up with very little.
Any thoughts/comments?
forex_trader_33781
Členom od Apr 11, 2011
202 príspevkov
Feb 22, 2012 at 05:49
(upravené Feb 22, 2012 at 05:49)
The short answer is no.
If it were possible, that individual would make headline news and everyone would know about them by now. I have seen someone work hard and double a $25K deposit in 1 month, but 100% gain is not nearly as unrealistic as 3000%.
If it were possible, that individual would make headline news and everyone would know about them by now. I have seen someone work hard and double a $25K deposit in 1 month, but 100% gain is not nearly as unrealistic as 3000%.
Členom od Dec 16, 2011
297 príspevkov
Feb 22, 2012 at 08:58
why not !!??? ... i think it is very posible ...it may not be 3000 % but 1000 % easy .. very HIGH risk strategies . HIGH risk HIGH rewards ..
forex_trader_33781
Členom od Apr 11, 2011
202 príspevkov
Feb 22, 2012 at 09:03
(upravené Feb 22, 2012 at 09:04)
DrVodka posted:
why not !!??? ... i think it is very posible ...it may not be 3000 % but 1000 % easy .. very HIGH risk strategies . HIGH risk HIGH rewards ..
Forex market was open to retail traders in 1997. But 15 years later, this so called 'easy' feat has still not been proven by anybody to my knowledge...even with the advent of high-performance computers and sophisticated programmers....
If you start trading 10-20 lots at ANY broker you will encounter major slippage and off-quotes that will make it extremely difficult to repeat what people have been doing on demo. I have heard from individuals at firms that trading 50 lots can even take several minutes to fill or close.
I think it would be wiser to focus on more realistic gains, in my opinion.
forex_trader_22707
Členom od Nov 13, 2010
46 príspevkov
Feb 23, 2012 at 13:55
Yes its possible. and as you can see from >2000 people, there are 5 over 1000% . So its 5 in 2000. About the lots thing, is not a point, since we are talking about percentage gain. i could try to do that with 100 or 200 euros instead of 50k and there would be no 50 lots :p
forex_trader_43716
Členom od Aug 06, 2011
345 príspevkov
Feb 24, 2012 at 20:58
With nearly 80% drawdown there's no way I would risk $50k real money on this strategy. It would be refreshingly more realistic to see competitions that consider drawdown, win/lose ratio, stop-loss risk percentage, and other parameters that look at the overall trading picture and not just the highest return over the shortest period of time.
forex_trader_33781
Členom od Apr 11, 2011
202 príspevkov
Feb 25, 2012 at 04:42
Alpari held a contest like that.....wish they would host one here 😄
myfxpt posted:
With nearly 80% drawdown there's no way I would risk $50k real money on this strategy. It would be refreshingly more realistic to see competitions that consider drawdown, win/lose ratio, stop-loss risk percentage, and other parameters that look at the overall trading picture and not just the highest return over the shortest period of time.
Členom od Mar 20, 2011
44 príspevkov
Feb 25, 2012 at 10:17
Yes, it is possible to achieve these kinds of results on a regular bases. But I don't know if it can be done month after month with consistency.
However, take a look at this thread over at fxcm they have a micro contest with some nice prizes each month (https://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/) most of the winners are making at least 1000% return on their money.
The October 2011 winner made over 12,000% for that month.
(https://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/433466-octobers-contest-results-winner-returns-12-725-31-a.html)
There has been at least 1 or more traders who have won the contest more than once.
In the end I think these demo accounts are a little skewed to the traders advantage but clearly from the fxcm micro contest which is a live contest these results can be achieved.
I would venture to say that because we are human we can not maintain these high win ratios over time for several reasons, inconstancy overtime, market conditions, mood swings, external pressures, etc.
And if your using a robot the market conditions will change and performance will fall or fail over time.
However, take a look at this thread over at fxcm they have a micro contest with some nice prizes each month (https://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/) most of the winners are making at least 1000% return on their money.
The October 2011 winner made over 12,000% for that month.
(https://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/433466-octobers-contest-results-winner-returns-12-725-31-a.html)
There has been at least 1 or more traders who have won the contest more than once.
In the end I think these demo accounts are a little skewed to the traders advantage but clearly from the fxcm micro contest which is a live contest these results can be achieved.
I would venture to say that because we are human we can not maintain these high win ratios over time for several reasons, inconstancy overtime, market conditions, mood swings, external pressures, etc.
And if your using a robot the market conditions will change and performance will fall or fail over time.
Členom od Mar 20, 2011
44 príspevkov
Feb 25, 2012 at 11:04
Splexin posted:
The short answer is no.
If it were possible, that individual would make headline news and everyone would know about them by now. I have seen someone work hard and double a $25K deposit in 1 month, but 100% gain is not nearly as unrealistic as 3000%.
I disagree only because if you've read Market Wizards or New Market Wizards the author points out that many of the traders are relatively unknown even though they are/where managing 100+ mill.
Bill Lipschutz comes to mind.
A successful trader can remain relatively unknown if they so choose.
forex_trader_33781
Členom od Apr 11, 2011
202 príspevkov
Feb 25, 2012 at 11:22
The main idea of OP's topic was gaining 3000%+ in 1 month using $50,000 real money. Statistically it's near impossible. I have yet to see anyone do it and if you know someone who has please steer me their direction. Like I said, if they existed SOMEONE would know about it because every major financial firm in the world would be trying to hire them. Heck, their own broker would try to hire them.
Micro accounts are a very different story-- far less risk-- though $500 to $25K is nothing to scoff at. 😲
In re your second post-- BUT.....did they gain thousand %'s in a month????? That is the point. Most people, known or unknown, start out with a few thousand or maybe a hundred thousand but it takes years before they're successful. I know a guy who traded $1600 to over $100 million in just 8 years. Big whoop. And managing money is a whole different ballgame than trading your own.
IMO traders get too caught up in focusing on high % gain in short time (aka get rich quick), rather than consistency...
Micro accounts are a very different story-- far less risk-- though $500 to $25K is nothing to scoff at. 😲
In re your second post-- BUT.....did they gain thousand %'s in a month????? That is the point. Most people, known or unknown, start out with a few thousand or maybe a hundred thousand but it takes years before they're successful. I know a guy who traded $1600 to over $100 million in just 8 years. Big whoop. And managing money is a whole different ballgame than trading your own.
IMO traders get too caught up in focusing on high % gain in short time (aka get rich quick), rather than consistency...
Členom od Mar 20, 2011
44 príspevkov
Feb 25, 2012 at 11:48
I agree, 3000% month after month is not sustainable, I thought I pointed that out?
Let's be honest about the 1000 percent gain month after month scenario, if there was someone who could do that, they would have their own broker and would not be using any retail platform available. 😉
Bill Lipschutz, although he would not provide any numbers, according to the author;
'it has been estimated that his trading alone accounted for an excess of one-half billion dollars in profits for Salomon
Brothers over his eight-year stay with the firm.'
'Lipschutz was significantly profitable in his very first year of trading these markets and extraordinarily
profitable over the next seven years.'
Lipshutz, trades his own money today.
I thought I'd point out that Bill Lipshutz trades only currencies.
I total agree that traders get caught up in how much money they lost in the trade even when it's profitable....If I had just bought 4 lots instead of 2 I would have twice as much...I am guilty of this as well.
Consistency comes from doing exactly the same thing over and over, regardless if we got some that morning, our dog died, the roof fell in, or if we have lost 5 trades in a row...and for all those reasons it's why 3000% gains month after month are not sustainable.
Let's be honest about the 1000 percent gain month after month scenario, if there was someone who could do that, they would have their own broker and would not be using any retail platform available. 😉
Bill Lipschutz, although he would not provide any numbers, according to the author;
'it has been estimated that his trading alone accounted for an excess of one-half billion dollars in profits for Salomon
Brothers over his eight-year stay with the firm.'
'Lipschutz was significantly profitable in his very first year of trading these markets and extraordinarily
profitable over the next seven years.'
Lipshutz, trades his own money today.
I thought I'd point out that Bill Lipshutz trades only currencies.
I total agree that traders get caught up in how much money they lost in the trade even when it's profitable....If I had just bought 4 lots instead of 2 I would have twice as much...I am guilty of this as well.
Consistency comes from doing exactly the same thing over and over, regardless if we got some that morning, our dog died, the roof fell in, or if we have lost 5 trades in a row...and for all those reasons it's why 3000% gains month after month are not sustainable.
Členom od Oct 06, 2010
2 príspevkov
Feb 27, 2012 at 22:23
(upravené Feb 27, 2012 at 22:24)
A lot of you guys are missing the point of the original question. I wasn't really shooting for, 'What's the probability of guessing the right trades to pull in > 3000% in 3 weeks'.
I was more curious about the after effects of actually doing that. So now you're 50K account is worth almost a Million, would the average forex broker not allow you to withdraw that? Maybe they'd just 'mysteriously go offline, with your money'
Or, would you even be able to close on the trades to make you that 1 million in the first place.
Splexin seemed to get the closest with:
I find that interesting and something you don't really hear much talked about. So I'm not really shootin for what makes a good trader, I'm more interested in how well these FX brokers are run, and how much corruption actually goes on.
I was more curious about the after effects of actually doing that. So now you're 50K account is worth almost a Million, would the average forex broker not allow you to withdraw that? Maybe they'd just 'mysteriously go offline, with your money'
Or, would you even be able to close on the trades to make you that 1 million in the first place.
Splexin seemed to get the closest with:
Splexin posted:
...
If you start trading 10-20 lots at ANY broker you will encounter major slippage and off-quotes that will make it extremely difficult to repeat what people have been doing on demo. I have heard from individuals at firms that trading 50 lots can even take several minutes to fill or close.
...
I find that interesting and something you don't really hear much talked about. So I'm not really shootin for what makes a good trader, I'm more interested in how well these FX brokers are run, and how much corruption actually goes on.
Členom od Dec 16, 2011
297 príspevkov
Feb 27, 2012 at 23:11
noncense . 1000-2000 % is very posible but its not sustaineble for a long piriod of time.. as some one said before one guy made 12milllons from 1800 $ and good broker is not a problem ither i think its pleanty of good trusted brokers around ...
all u need is good size deposit ( 50 k ) ...
all u need is good size deposit ( 50 k ) ...
Členom od Oct 18, 2011
39 príspevkov
Mar 01, 2012 at 19:38
in theory everything is possible in forex , i'v seen EAs turning 10k into 1mil in one day , but in reality 3000% in one month is impossible you would have to take very high risk and in the long run you will lose everything , 100% a month can be done (if you're a very good trader )
Členom od Oct 18, 2011
39 príspevkov
Mar 01, 2012 at 19:40
DrVodka posted:
noncense . 1000-2000 % is very posible but its not sustaineble for a long piriod of time.. as some one said before one guy made 12milllons from 1800 $ and good broker is not a problem ither i think its pleanty of good trusted brokers around ...
all u need is good size deposit ( 50 k ) ...
who's that guy you're talkin' about ? 🙃
forex_trader_33781
Členom od Apr 11, 2011
202 príspevkov
Mar 01, 2012 at 19:48
tylerbose posted:
DrVodka posted:
noncense . 1000-2000 % is very posible but its not sustaineble for a long piriod of time.. as some one said before one guy made 12milllons from 1800 $ and good broker is not a problem ither i think its pleanty of good trusted brokers around ...
all u need is good size deposit ( 50 k ) ...
who's that guy you're talkin' about ? 🙃
This guy in Asia, you should see the trading room in his apartment, monitors cover the wall.......
I don't remember his name but it took EIGHT YEARS to trade into the millions......
Členom od Oct 18, 2011
39 príspevkov
Mar 01, 2012 at 20:01
Splexin posted:
tylerbose posted:
DrVodka posted:
noncense . 1000-2000 % is very posible but its not sustaineble for a long piriod of time.. as some one said before one guy made 12milllons from 1800 $ and good broker is not a problem ither i think its pleanty of good trusted brokers around ...
all u need is good size deposit ( 50 k ) ...
who's that guy you're talkin' about ? 🙃
This guy in Asia, you should see the trading room in his apartment, monitors cover the wall.......
I don't remember his name but it took EIGHT YEARS to trade into the millions......
1 mil in 8 years =/= 3000% a month , you can't compare a guy who made 30 times his deposit in 20 days to a guy who actually worked his ass off for 8 years !
forex_trader_33781
Členom od Apr 11, 2011
202 príspevkov
Mar 01, 2012 at 20:39
(upravené Mar 01, 2012 at 20:39)
tylerbose posted:
1 mil in 8 years =/= 3000% a month , you can't compare a guy who made 30 times his deposit in 20 days to a guy who actually worked his ass off for 8 years !
You're preaching to the choir on that one, bro 😁
Členom od Oct 18, 2011
39 príspevkov
Mar 01, 2012 at 20:45
Splexin posted:
tylerbose posted:
1 mil in 8 years =/= 3000% a month , you can't compare a guy who made 30 times his deposit in 20 days to a guy who actually worked his ass off for 8 years !
You're preaching to the choir on that one, bro 😁
to resume my opinion , 3000% in 20 days is not trading it's gambling 😐, in my opinion the best of the best trader doesn't make more than 100% a month 😎
Členom od May 01, 2011
56 príspevkov
Mar 01, 2012 at 21:27
Even 150-200% a month is very possible with good knowledge and a good pair 😄.
