Trading Journal
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Jul 19, 2018 at 12:07
Stocks- U.S. Futures Fall Ahead of Earnings, Trade Tension Worry
Jul 20, 2018 at 11:09
The European indices are trading in descending trajectory, after the performance of the American and Asian markets. Although the earnings season will begin to gain some measure in Europe, the main catalyst for the stock markets of the Old Continent will continue to be the performance of its American counterparts. In fact, the correlation between the S&P500 and the Eurostoxx50 has hit the highest level since 2016. This pattern has allowed investors to weigh less than the fact that profit estimates are only 6% in Europe compared to 21% in USA and to suspend in their minds some risks, such as the political uncertainties associated with the new Italian Government, as well as some governmental instability in Spain and Germany, as well as some uncertainties regarding the future of the ECB’s monetary policy.
Jul 23, 2018 at 15:45
The presentation of results will take on a larger dimension in the coming days (84 of the DJStoxx600 members will report their quarterly accounts). According to the latest estimates, company profits will have grown 8.20% in the second quarter of this year, compared to the same period of 2017. However, excluding the oil sector, the increase in profits will have been more contained (+ 3.10%). The increase in revenues is estimated to have been 5.20%. Once again, this variation is inflated by the accounts of the oil companies. If we exclude these companies, revenues will have risen by a mere 0.50%. So relevant or more than the results themselves, will be the considerations that CEOs of companies will make of the current tension between the US and its trading partners. The exposure to world trade in European companies is far superior to its American counterparts: more than half of its revenues are generated outside Europe compared to the 30% of revenues that US companies originate outside the United States.
Jul 24, 2018 at 20:00
European markets ended the day with significant gains. Contrary to what has been observed, today's session was essentially dominated by business themes. European bank stocks were boosted by the good results of UBS. The Swiss bank reported a 9% increase in its quarterly profits, which reached 1280 M. CHF, surpassing analysts' forecasts. Bank CEO Sergio Ermotti was confident that UBS will achieve its proposed goals for 2018. Google's good results have had a positive effect not only in the technology sector but also in the European market as a whole. European investors are well aware of the impact Google's price has on US indices and so indirectly on Europeans. Also to mention the good results of Peugeot, which catapulted the stock to the highs of the last 7 years. At the macroeconomic level, PMI indexes for manufacturing and services activity in Germany have easily outperformed economists' forecasts. With regard to the Eurozone as a whole, the reading on the PMI index of manufacturing activity hit the forecasts but the forecast for services fell a bit short.
Jul 25, 2018 at 12:19
European indices are presenting some losses. Given the uncertainty still prevailing at the current juncture, it is likely that some short-term investors will continue to realize some profit taking after the strong rise in yesterday’s session. The initial phase of the day should be marked by investors’ response to the various results released before the opening. Today begins the visit of the President of the European Commission Juncker to the USA, where he will meet with President Trump. The purpose of this visit is to normalize relations between the two sides of the Atlantic, recently shaken by President Trump’s accusations against the European Union regarding the tariffs it imposes on American products, the regulatory barriers it raises (like the recent Google fine) and to the default on financing Nato. JeanClaude Juncker was prone to an agreement, which would have as its starting point the tariffs on cars. However, the President of the European Commission has limited powers in this regard, as any agreement will have to be ratified by the various National Parliaments.
Jul 26, 2018 at 15:08
The European indices are presenting some gains, especially the DAX. The comforting signals given by the meeting between President Trump and the President of the European Commission Juncker should sketch the initial trend of today. The ECB meeting will divert investors’ attention from microeconomic issues (business results) to more macro issues (monetary policy). Today’s meeting will be used by the Central Bank to cement the message given at the June meeting. However, at the current stage the signs that the slowdown is over are still very timid and on them weighs the specter of a worldwide trade war. The issue of inflation should also be discussed at the press conference. The ECB has been confident that inflation will eventually move towards the 2%, which is the aim of this institution.
Jul 27, 2018 at 14:06
Regarding yesterday’s meeting between Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker, the two leaders agreed to start negotiations immediately to reduce tariffs on goods such as medicines, chemicals and soy and completely eliminate tariffs on industrial products (excluding cars). This purpose is quite vague and sins for lack of detail but at least it demonstrates an intention. However, it is important to note that in May, too, the US and China reached a similar agreement before ending the talks in June. In short, more than an agreement, yesterday was celebrated an intention to reach an agreement. This intention has fragile foundations but may constitute a truce in that it was agreed to suspend the introduction of new tariffs while the negotiations last.
Jul 30, 2018 at 22:41
European markets started the week in slightest decline, with the tech sector pushing the stock indexes. Under Brexit, it was reported that Deutsche Bank has transferred about half of its euro clearing activities from London to Frankfurt. Shares of the German bank rose 2.75%. BMW has remained largely unchanged after the press reported today that the German company will be the first automaker to raise prices on cars built in the US and to be exported to China in the context of recent global trade tensions .
Jul 31, 2018 at 09:36
In the pre-opening, the European indices rehearsed in negative territory. The session will be marked by the release of several business results on both sides of the Atlantic. The technology sector will be more focused, not only by the observed behavior of companies in this area on Wall Street in the last session, but also by the fact that investors look forward to Apple's results. The business results agenda in Europe includes, among others, those of Credit Suisse, BP, Sanofi and Glencore. On the other hand, fears about the possible impact of Brexit on the car industry in Europe could influence this sector.
Aug 01, 2018 at 07:39
The session will today be marked by the release of quarterly results by some of the most important European companies. Arcelor Mittal, Air France-KLM, Infineon, Lloyds Bank, BNP Paribas, Volkswagen, Rio Tinto, among others. The figures revealed may influence the company’s stock movement as well as its activity sector. BNP Paribas figures have already been known: net profit rose 53% compared to the previous quarter to 2390 M€, but slightly down from last year. The results published yesterday in the US by Apple may condition the stocks of several European technology companies that are its suppliers.
Aug 02, 2018 at 23:49
Producers of raw materials and the automotive sector have been among the worst performers at a time when fears over trade tensions between the US and China are returning. Investors’ attention focused on the companies that presented their quarterly results as well as the Central Bank meeting.
Aug 15, 2018 at 09:16
Yestrerday the Turkish President defended a retaliation against Washington for the worsening of the tariffs applied to imports of aluminum and steel coming from Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to boycott the US electronic products, including the iPhone.
Aug 16, 2018 at 20:26
European markets have recouped some of the losses recorded in recent days, given some relief over the crisis in Turkey and the US-China trade war. Encouraging the most positive sentiment from investors came the news that China accepted the US invitation to visit the country later this month to negotiate bilateral trade issues, as well as the announcement yesterday of Qatar’s financial support it promised to invest 15 000 M.USD in Turkey.
Aug 17, 2018 at 18:08
European markets ended lower in the last day of the week, under pressure from the continuing fears and uncertainties associated with the situation in Turkey and the trade relations between the US and China. The banking sector, given the exposure of some institutions to Turkey, led the losses, while the technology sector was penalized by the news about the North-American company “Applied Materials”. In Paris, Air France-KLM devalued 3.54%, after confirmation of Benjamin Smith as new CEO. On the Eurozone, Eurostat reported that inflation in the region reached 2.10% in July, one tenth higher than in June and the highest since December 2012. In the European Union as a whole, inflation stood at 2.20 %, also a maximum since December 2012.
Aug 27, 2018 at 20:39
The US market was trading higher, with S&P and Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs. Investors’ decisions were still being influenced by Friday’s words from the President of the Fed and the agreement reached by the US and Mexico. During the weekend, a head of the Mexican delegation had advanced that the negotiations were going well and today an agreement between the two countries was announced. Now the talks will extend to the other NAFTA member, Canada.
Aug 28, 2018 at 19:05
The performance of the American indices is a favorable force to European markets given the high correlation between markets on both sides of the Atlantic. In fact, in the last two years, all the upward movements of European stocks were preceded by rallies on Wall Street.
