Caesar@IcMarkets
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Caesar@IcMarkets การสนทนา
Oct 03, 2014 at 17:29
I've been watching this system for a couple of months. In my view, in order to pay for the subscription, you have to have a £10K account to be able to trade the lot sizes necessary to make a sensible net profit after costs. The system appears to buy at the top and sell at the bottom, which is sort of interesting although this is clearly a subjective observation but it frequently opens multiple positions as a result. This leads to a risk:reward ratio which is considerably worse than 1:1 so the risk of ruin is large unless you have a substantial account. This was demonstrated when the EA (I assume its an EA) took long positions the morning of NFP and simply ran out of runway to recover the positions before the news compounded the problem. Could I suggest that a mod might be to switch it off prior to known volatile periods, since it obviously performs best during ranging markets with little volatility. Such a shame; it was doing so well up to that point but the statistics finally caught up.
เป็นสมาชิกตั้งแต่ Dec 22, 2010
128 โพสต์
Oct 03, 2014 at 17:42
...guys keep in mind that caesar400 will also have it's DD one day. It's not a solution to now all run to that signal like a sheepherd
เป็นสมาชิกตั้งแต่ May 04, 2012
1608 โพสต์
Oct 03, 2014 at 17:48
(แก้ไขแล้ว Oct 03, 2014 at 17:48)
cyberryder posted:FxMasterGuru posted:Ceasar400 is running a different strategy and is only available to private subs, so doesn't matter.
Cesar400' Master account has not crashed at all
What matters is this master account https://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr/caesar2icma/737724
I disagree. The SAME EXACT trades were running on SimpleTrader and on Cesar400 Managed accounts. The only difference was the funding of the TWO master accounts.
SimpleTrader Master had 700 USD while Managed Master had 1200 USD funding. So it is obvious that -30% SL trigger was hit on the 700 USD funded SimpleTrader Master and it was not on the 1200 USD funded Managed Master.
เป็นสมาชิกตั้งแต่ May 04, 2012
1608 โพสต์
Oct 03, 2014 at 17:51
mach26 posted:
I've been watching this system for a couple of months. In my view, in order to pay for the subscription, you have to have a £10K account to be able to trade the lot sizes necessary to make a sensible net profit after costs. The system appears to buy at the top and sell at the bottom, which is sort of interesting although this is clearly a subjective observation but it frequently opens multiple positions as a result. This leads to a risk:reward ratio which is considerably worse than 1:1 so the risk of ruin is large unless you have a substantial account. This was demonstrated when the EA (I assume its an EA) took long positions the morning of NFP and simply ran out of runway to recover the positions before the news compounded the problem. Could I suggest that a mod might be to switch it off prior to known volatile periods, since it obviously performs best during ranging markets with little volatility. Such a shame; it was doing so well up to that point but the statistics finally caught up.
I agree. It was doing exremely well in ranging markets. So 'letting' the EA trade before major news was... hmmm... let's say: 'risky'... or... 'not too smart'...
เป็นสมาชิกตั้งแต่ Dec 22, 2010
128 โพสต์
Oct 03, 2014 at 17:54
FxMasterGuru posted:i'm only telling what Tomas told me about Caesar400 strategy and that it is different.cyberryder posted:I disagree. The SAME EXACT trades were running on SimpleTrader and on Cesar400 Managed accounts. The only difference was the funding of the TWO master accounts.FxMasterGuru posted:Ceasar400 is running a different strategy and is only available to private subs, so doesn't matter.
Cesar400' Master account has not crashed at all
What matters is this master account https://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr/caesar2icma/737724
Re Caesar2 strategy: Tomas is one of the first signal providers on connectforex, sticking to his DD commitments to close at 33% DD. We should be very happy with him today.
เป็นสมาชิกตั้งแต่ Dec 22, 2010
128 โพสต์
Oct 03, 2014 at 17:59
FxMasterGuru posted:I want to add: Everybody following through connectforex has the possibility to stop copying the signal at any time. This is not possible for private subs.
I agree. It was doing exremely well in ranging markets. So 'letting' the EA trade before major news was... hmmm... let's say: 'risky'... or... 'not too smart'...
However, interfering with an unknown strategy normally is not a solution.
เป็นสมาชิกตั้งแต่ May 04, 2012
1608 โพสต์
Oct 03, 2014 at 18:02
(แก้ไขแล้ว Oct 03, 2014 at 18:03)
bmigette posted:cyberryder posted:Yep I knew. The thing is for the signal to be profitable due to its price, you have to either have 2k at least, or increase risk. I choosed option 2. I deposited 600, went to 1300, and now back to 500. Maybe now I will try the otehr option ;)bmigette posted:sure, but you knew that before
The problem being if you multiply risk like I did, then you get hurt badly...
If you look at trade history of Cesar400 ('Managed') and Cesar2.0 ('Signal'), then it is obvious that we are talking about the same exact strategy. The only difference is funding. Subsequently the -33% DD limit has reached the lower funded Cesar2.0 today, but not the better funded Cesar400.
Cesar2.0: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr/caesar2icma/737724
Ceasr400: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr/caesar-400-eurusd/662462
เป็นสมาชิกตั้งแต่ Dec 22, 2010
128 โพสต์
Oct 03, 2014 at 18:43
(แก้ไขแล้ว Oct 03, 2014 at 18:47)
OK let's say the strategy is identical
C2 initially started with 2k and 0.01lot. But recently the account ran with 4x initial risk: 0.01lot for 500 USD. He had 1k balance and ran with 0.02lot.
C400 initially started with 1.5k and 0.01lot. Balance is at 2k and the account still trades with 0.01 lot. So this account should reach 33% DD, 4x later than C2. (currently at -14%)
FxMasterGuru posted:No, funding doesn't matter if you trade the same risk on both accounts. The difference is RISK!
The only difference is funding
C2 initially started with 2k and 0.01lot. But recently the account ran with 4x initial risk: 0.01lot for 500 USD. He had 1k balance and ran with 0.02lot.
C400 initially started with 1.5k and 0.01lot. Balance is at 2k and the account still trades with 0.01 lot. So this account should reach 33% DD, 4x later than C2. (currently at -14%)
เป็นสมาชิกตั้งแต่ May 04, 2012
1608 โพสต์
Oct 03, 2014 at 18:52
(แก้ไขแล้ว Oct 03, 2014 at 19:11)
cyberryder posted:
OK let's say the strategy is identicalFxMasterGuru posted:No, funding doesn't matter if you trade the same risk on both accounts. The difference is RISK!
The only difference is funding
C2 initially started with 2k and 0.01lot. But recently the account ran with 4x initial risk: 0.01lot for 500 USD. He had 1k balance and ran with 0.02lot.
C400 initially started with 1.5k and 0.01lot. Balance is at 2k and the account still trades with 0.01 lot. So this account should reach 33% DD, 4x later than C2. (currently at -14%)
I apologize. You are right! The risk was much higher on Cesar 2.0.
So now I wonder why Cesar 2.0 was running at so high risk in contrast to Cesar400...?
Cesar 2.0 subscribers - even with lower individual risk settings - had no chance as Master has closed, while Cesar400 clients might come out from this basket even with profit...
เป็นสมาชิกตั้งแต่ Dec 22, 2010
128 โพสต์
Oct 03, 2014 at 19:01
😎
Oct 04, 2014 at 08:21
Tomas,
You should have used a Hedge to protect investor Equity.
Sorry Tomas but you have shown serious lack of experience in dealing with large drawdowns.
This DD should have never happened as there are ways to deal with it.
So far with an initial $10k investment, factoring in initial slippage and this latest failure to protect investor equity, I'm down 50%.
Please enjoy spending my subscription fees, as I try to deal with the massive loss you have delivered.
You should have used a Hedge to protect investor Equity.
Sorry Tomas but you have shown serious lack of experience in dealing with large drawdowns.
This DD should have never happened as there are ways to deal with it.
So far with an initial $10k investment, factoring in initial slippage and this latest failure to protect investor equity, I'm down 50%.
Please enjoy spending my subscription fees, as I try to deal with the massive loss you have delivered.
Oct 04, 2014 at 08:21
togr posted:What part of you have failed your signal followers on ST and MQL don't you understand?
This might be helpful or not.
But in any case it belongs to simpletrader forum not the MFB
Where was the Hedge to wait out the current price move?
Oct 04, 2014 at 08:22
cyberryder posted:erinsunc posted:
Anyone else worried about being a cumulative of 300 pips down an hour before NFP ?
no! If you are worried, you shouldn't trade / you shouldn't follow any signal. Following a signal means you can relax, get some rest and sleep by following a black-box = trusting the trader.
Asking the trader on and on why he did this and why he shouldn't do that doesn't help anybody, as you simply don't know his strategy.
Not knowing is the price you pay by following a signal. You have to life with it.
The only thing i'm asking from any trader i follow, is to STICK to his DD rules he commited. This is the only thing i should be worried of.
Mate, you are a tit if it doesn't worry you to have 30% of your account closed out on you. Regardless of the DD rules !!
Oct 04, 2014 at 08:22
FxMasterGuru posted:
'Cesar400' Master account has not crashed at all... With 0.01 lot/1200 USD it is in -15% DD for the day (at this moment)... Not that bad...
Signal account on 'SimpleTrader' had much lower funding, which is why it had closed the basket. Managed accounts are still running...
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr/caesar-400-eurusd/662462
Maybe but look at his Caeser2IcMA account which i believe was the reference master account for some. It tells a very different story and certainly not one to be proud of after today !
Oct 04, 2014 at 08:23
@vontorg, why did you trade on an NFP day? All the economic news leading up to today was positive for the USD and negative for the Euro. Also, why have you let the EA and place trades on a day when the only Bank that can offer any sort of resistance to the Euro falling (Deutche Bank is) on public holiday?
Looking at the Euro a blind man can see the general trend is short. Giving the news this week from Draghi and the ECB conference it’s pretty dam obvious not to ‘long’ the Euro or at the very least, stay out !
You have cost a lot of money today and ruined many person’s weekend by not thinking. Hiding behind the DD rules and the fact that it is an EA is no excuse. You should NOT have had it live on accounts trading today, fact.
And before the fan club all start shouting me down about how it is my fault and being over leveraged and all the usual crap that follows when someone vents their feelings, I accept that I am partially responsible. BUT I thought this was a trading strategy, not a gambling one !! There is a big, big difference. Would I have been as vocal if the gamble had paid off? Probably not, but I certainly would have been thinking it was ‘good luck’ rather than ‘good perception’ from an EA!!
Before you all start pulling me up on my profile I will admit now that my accounts following Caeser are NOT under this profile.
vontorg, you have been a good man and Caeser has pulled in the pips but many an account has been blown today and you have to accept your portion of blame !
Looking at the Euro a blind man can see the general trend is short. Giving the news this week from Draghi and the ECB conference it’s pretty dam obvious not to ‘long’ the Euro or at the very least, stay out !
You have cost a lot of money today and ruined many person’s weekend by not thinking. Hiding behind the DD rules and the fact that it is an EA is no excuse. You should NOT have had it live on accounts trading today, fact.
And before the fan club all start shouting me down about how it is my fault and being over leveraged and all the usual crap that follows when someone vents their feelings, I accept that I am partially responsible. BUT I thought this was a trading strategy, not a gambling one !! There is a big, big difference. Would I have been as vocal if the gamble had paid off? Probably not, but I certainly would have been thinking it was ‘good luck’ rather than ‘good perception’ from an EA!!
Before you all start pulling me up on my profile I will admit now that my accounts following Caeser are NOT under this profile.
vontorg, you have been a good man and Caeser has pulled in the pips but many an account has been blown today and you have to accept your portion of blame !
Oct 04, 2014 at 08:23
mach26 posted:
I've been watching this system for a couple of months. In my view, in order to pay for the subscription, you have to have a £10K account to be able to trade the lot sizes necessary to make a sensible net profit after costs. The system appears to buy at the top and sell at the bottom, which is sort of interesting although this is clearly a subjective observation but it frequently opens multiple positions as a result. This leads to a risk:reward ratio which is considerably worse than 1:1 so the risk of ruin is large unless you have a substantial account. This was demonstrated when the EA (I assume its an EA) took long positions the morning of NFP and simply ran out of runway to recover the positions before the news compounded the problem. Could I suggest that a mod might be to switch it off prior to known volatile periods, since it obviously performs best during ranging markets with little volatility. Such a shame; it was doing so well up to that point but the statistics finally caught up.
A phrase with 'Horse' and 'Bolted' springs to mind......
Oct 04, 2014 at 08:30
Tomas should have Hedged and waited for the price to recover, so a chance to avoid the loss. Would not have increased the loss and only need price increase of the same pips as pre the Hedge open to close all the trades in profit.
Just maybe the ZuluTrade comment about Tomas may apply: https://www.zulutrade.com/trader/178362
Just maybe the ZuluTrade comment about Tomas may apply: https://www.zulutrade.com/trader/178362
Oct 04, 2014 at 09:01
Guys it is always easy to tell what we should have done afterward. I personally don't know any strategies that allows 10-20% profit a month with max DD 30%. If you know one feel free to suggest. The only critic I could do to cesar is signal price.
Let's see in another 6 months if we get another DD Hit.
Let's see in another 6 months if we get another DD Hit.
Oct 04, 2014 at 09:16
I feel I have to stick up for Tomas as he has always let it known that a 30% drawdown could occur about once a year. I am glad to see he stuck to his rules unlike other signals I've followed in the past.
And this EA has always traded NFP. Thats where some of its best profits have come from. Not trading NFP every month would probably reduce the returns.
And this EA has always traded NFP. Thats where some of its best profits have come from. Not trading NFP every month would probably reduce the returns.
Oct 04, 2014 at 09:52
Yes, the horse definitely bolted ( as above) but now we have to get the horse back and make sure it stays in its stable! Several people have mentioned Hedging. I have a very nice system (Hedge EA) from EA -Coder which works very well with systems like this one. My earlier observation was that in most trading sequences, Caesar's system will take several trades before price reverses. There are few sequences that go immediately in favour of the the trade. It begs the question; I wonder what would happen if he reversed the EA? In the event that he doesn't, then using a Hedge EA like the one mentioned above allows you to automatically open multiple pending orders in the opposite direction which mitigate risk. It does have the potential to increase profit although that is not its primary objective. It's also a great opportunity to design optimised set files among the smart people on this site. Just a thought
