Volatility Trader Rel.3c - LIVE-A การสนทนา

We are running on a live $34,000 account with limited time wide-open access to view the trades the system makes. The set-up is currently running with a 10 micro-lot order sizing parameter on the 12 GBPUSD signals and a 5 micro-lot order sizing parameter on the 4 'Asian' signals (AUDUSD & USDJPY). We anticipate doubling the return rate by scaling-up to 20 micro-lot sizing in the next few weeks.

Since the initial Release 3.0 version two major account protection enhancements have been put in place:

1. All around reduced maximum 'hard' stop-outs -- the newest signals are all sub 300 pips with most at or under 250 pips.

2. Large uni-directional moves (such as the 350 pips drop on Cable on March 1) are protected against by non DDC use on contrarian signals.

Besides these newest protective features, the system also now supports dynamic order sizing updates while trading live to facilitate scaling-up order sizing and also separated long vs. short and normal vs. contrarian signal tuning.

This system is NOT a gimmick like so many others on this site. This system is not a commercially available EA. This system is on a REAL account, generating real money, real trades, and real returns. This is not martingale. This is not gambling. This is solid-returning and relatively safe high-yield investing.

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    If you are interested in using our signal service, contact us at [email protected]
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LIVE ACCOUNT TRADING LOG -- This account is the SIGNALS source for the FULLY AUTOMATED SIGNALS we provide
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NET RETURNED PIPS ON LIVE ACCOUNT FOR ALL CLOSED ORDERS:

+905.6 pips --- week 1 - mar 3-9
+425.3 pips --- week 2 - mar 10-16
+885.2 pips --- week 3 - mar 17-17 (current partial week)


NOTE: March the 3rd, the first day we closed a trade on this account, is arbitrarily considered the 1st day of the week. Thus 'weeks' in this log run from Wednesday to Tuesday.

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LIVE ACCOUNT TRADING LOG -- This account is the SIGNALS source for the FULLY AUTOMATED SIGNALS we provide
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SUMMARY:

2755.1 PIPS in 13 trading days = 211.9 pips / trading day

DETAIL:

+ 905.6 pips --- week 1 - mar 03-09 (26 trades closed)
+ 425.3 pips --- week 2 - mar 10-16 (26 trades closed)
+ 1779.3 pips --- week 3 - mar 17-19 (22 trades closed -- current partial week)

2010.03.19-11:23 MDT: OPEN FLOATING TRADES = -355.1 (20 open trades)
2010.03.19-11:23 MDT: NET PIPS = 2755.1 PIPS earned in 13 trading days.

hello please give more details about your EA

bye
ajentha

ajentha posted:
    hello please give more details about your EA

bye
ajentha

Ajentha, to answer your question:

In a nutshell, VTr3c is a custom written EA which serves as a pattern recognition engine which uses 'per signal' historical modeling to establish multiple means of dynamic stop management throughout the lifespan of any given open position. Signals and their corresponding management techniques have been established which use extensive hedging in order to establish multiple market positions with low risk.

We have a dedicated trade generating platform that trades our primary account (the one that is reported here) and a secondary machine on our server rack that is a signal master. The signal master feeds trades to our clients' systems allowing real-time duplication of our trades into client accounts. We charge a monthly return-based fee, based on how much $ we put in your account each month.

Email to [email protected] to and we will put you on our mailing list and send out the application forms.

😲 Isn't it a bit early to offer signal service/manged account after only 14 trading days??

pc8multifx posted:
    😲 Isn't it a bit early to offer signal service/manged account after only 14 trading days??

We've been doing a pooled / managed account for over 6 months and are currently net-positive.

The signal service might be premature if we had not been trading this particular EA live since the beginning of 2010. Even while working out bugs the EA has put $5,800 in the bank on a $30,000 account. This while using overly low risk/return settings.

Now that we are ramping up to 1 mini-lot / $10,000 account balance and expect to see something like 20% - 40% per month.

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LIVE ACCOUNT TRADING LOG -- This account is the SIGNALS source for the FULLY AUTOMATED SIGNALS we provide
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SUMMARY:

2410.7 PIPS in 15 trading days = 160.7 pips / trading day

DETAIL:

+ 905.6 pips --- week 1 - mar 03-09 (26 trades closed)
+ 425.3 pips --- week 2 - mar 10-16 (26 trades closed)
+ 400.0 pips --- week 3 - mar 17-23 (39 trades closed)

2010.03.23-18:08 MDT: OPEN FLOATING TRADES = +679.8 (14 open trades)
2010.03.23-18:08 MDT: NET PIPS = 2410.7 PIPS earned in 15 trading days.

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LIVE ACCOUNT TRADING LOG -- This account is the SIGNALS source for the FULLY AUTOMATED SIGNALS we provide
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SUMMARY:

2341.5 PIPS in 18 trading days = 130.1 pips / trading day

DETAIL:

+ 905.6 pips --- week 1 - mar 03-09 (26 trades closed)
+ 425.3 pips --- week 2 - mar 10-16 (26 trades closed)
+ 400.0 pips --- week 3 - mar 17-23 (39 trades closed)
+1104.0 pips --- week 4 - mar 24-26 (23 trades closed -- current partial week)

2010.03.26-16:47 MDT: OPEN FLOATING TRADES = -493.4 (10 open trades)
2010.03.23-18:08 MDT: NET PIPS = 2341.5 PIPS earned in 18 trading days.

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End of Week Summary
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Overall this was a difficult week for our system to find its bearings on cable.

The pips earned performance was somewhat buoyed-up by the performance of the Asian pairs which did not close a single AUDUSD or USDJPY trade in loss all week. That being said, the $ performance of the system was severely hampered by the fact that we did an order size increase (by 100% -- too much at once!), the timing of which happened to catch more of the losing pips than the winning ones. Also going against us $ wise was the fact that the Asian pairs are still trading reduced sizing so those wins did not help the bottom line as much.

t.

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LIVE ACCOUNT TRADING LOG -- This account is the SIGNALS source for the FULLY AUTOMATED SIGNALS we provide
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SUMMARY:

2703.9 PIPS in 19 trading days = 142.3 pips / trading day

DETAIL:

+ 905.6 pips --- week 1 - mar 03-09 (26 trades closed)
+ 425.3 pips --- week 2 - mar 10-16 (26 trades closed)
+ 400.0 pips --- week 3 - mar 17-23 (39 trades closed)
+1188.0 pips --- week 4 - mar 24-29 (25 trades closed -- current partial week)

2010.03.29-19:46 MDT: OPEN FLOATING TRADES = -215.0 (14 open trades)
2010.03.29-19:46 MDT: NET PIPS = 2703.9 PIPS earned in 19 trading days.

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LIVE ACCOUNT TRADING LOG -- This account is the SIGNALS source for the FULLY AUTOMATED SIGNALS we provide
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SUMMARY:

3295.5 PIPS in 21 trading days = 156.9 pips / trading day

DETAIL:

+ 905.6 pips --- week 1 - mar 03-09 (26 trades closed)
+ 425.3 pips --- week 2 - mar 10-16 (26 trades closed)
+ 400.0 pips --- week 3 - mar 17-23 (39 trades closed)
+ 570.1 pips --- week 4 - mar 24-30 (36 trades closed)
+ 71.7 pips --- week 5 - mar 31 (1 trade closed -- current partial week)

2010.03.31-12:29 MDT: OPEN FLOATING TRADES = +922.8 (10 open trades)
2010.03.31-12:29 MDT: NET PIPS = 3295.5 PIPS earned in 21 trading days.

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LIVE ACCOUNT TRADING LOG -- This account is the SIGNALS source for the FULLY AUTOMATED SIGNALS we provide
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SUMMARY:

3605.0 PIPS in 22 trading days = 163.9 pips / trading day

DETAIL:

+ 905.6 pips --- week 1 - mar 03-09 (26 trades closed)
+ 425.3 pips --- week 2 - mar 10-16 (26 trades closed)
+ 400.0 pips --- week 3 - mar 17-23 (39 trades closed)
+ 570.1 pips --- week 4 - mar 24-30 (36 trades closed)
+ 12.3 pips --- week 5 - mar 31-01 (3 trades closed -- current partial week)

2010.04.01-15:29 MDT: OPEN FLOATING TRADES = +1291.7 (8 open trades)
2010.04.01-15:29 MDT: NET PIPS = 3605.0 PIPS earned in 22 trading days.

tbuitendyk posted:
    
2010.04.01-15:29 MDT: OPEN FLOATING TRADES = +1291.7 (8 open trades)
2010.04.01-15:29 MDT: NET PIPS = 3605.0 PIPS earned in 22 trading days.

Hi, Theo,

I'm reading your posts and looking at your charts and absolutely can't figure out where do you see 3605 pips profit earned in last 22 trading days. Accordingly to your charts you started with $33805.78 on Mar 3rd and finished with $33602.82 on Apr 1st (or exactly in 22 trading days) with net LOSS of $202.96? Am I missing something in your calculations?

Thanks,
Al

Hi Al,

If you look at total net pips earned by all closed positions (that is, winning order pips less losing order pips) and add the net floating pips (that is, net pips associated with open orders), you will see that the system is curently ahead 3,225 pips since first order closed on March 3. To evaluate the *absolute* performance of any given system the only valid measure is TOTAL pips earned of BOTH CLOSED and OPEN positions. (People hide massive equity losses by ignoring open floating losses.)

The illusion of a loss is created by the unfortuate fact that MyFXBook chooses to focus on BALANCE as to how a system performs when the reality is that EQUITY is the measure of how a system performs.

An analogy would be that if I have a net worth of $300,000 and all of my assets are cash in the bank, and then I go and buy a house for $250,000 so there is only $50,000 left in my bank account, and year later my house has appreciated to $300,000, my net worth is now $350,000, not $50,000. MyFXBook woud report that I'm only worth $50,000 however.

By the above analogy, from the MyFXBook perspective I only have $50,000 to my name, but in reality MyFXBook has under-reported my investment performance by $300,000, because I have $350,000 assets now.

Yesterday when we were at 3,600 pips the balance was down $200. Our account value (equity) was up $3,000, or approximately 11.3%.

(By the way, this same problem is exactly why people can show-off supposedly great systems based on martingales and systems that carry huge floating losses and get people tracking their systems as if they have value. These systems often show massive steady balance increases but the reality is that accounts created by such systems are worthless, or will soon be, as the equity is evaporating as they get ever closer to an inevitable margin call.)

But what I've stated above is only half of the story. Another critical issue in terms of dollar value returns is how much risk one is willing to put their account under, which is a factor of order sizing. Put simply we have been undertrading our account. As I said, our system made 11.3% returns in one month. The reality is that if we used the kind of order sizing (leverage) that some systems are using around here we would have made 50% - 100% ROI in one month. In fact, one demo account that I've traded with our signals with a higher leverage made over 50% EQUITY increase between March 11/10 and April 1/10. But that's just a demo account so I'm running with leveraging higher than I would expose a real account to so the results are not worth publishing.

The bottom line for me is that there are many ways to misrepresent a system's performance and in my view only one way to give an *absolute* value indication and that is net pips, closed and open positions.

t.

Hi Theo,

I can't agree with you on this. You can't quote your system's performance based on OPEN transactions - your system's performance has to be gauged based on closed positions by the end of each period you want to estimate your profits on. So your systems performance was <0 pips in 22 trading days, when you close all your open positions at 3000+ pips profit - you can quote those pips as profit only then, when your trades are closed. You seem to come up with your own idea how the performance of the system could be judged and I agree with you that it should be judged based on the pips not $$$ but pips CLOSED within a period of time - not pips of closed and OPEN trades. To take your analogy with the house as equity - the price of your house could be $300,000 today but only $150,000 tomorrow when you are ready to sell it. In FX the prices on currency pairs are fluctuating every minute so think of pips shown in OPEN trades as profit is not FAIR.

Thanks,
Al

tbuitendyk posted:
******************************************************************************************
LIVE ACCOUNT TRADING LOG -- This account is the SIGNALS source for the FULLY AUTOMATED SIGNALS we provide
******************************************************************************************

SUMMARY:

3605.0 PIPS in 22 trading days = 163.9 pips / trading day

DETAIL:

+ 905.6 pips --- week 1 - mar 03-09 (26 trades closed)
+ 425.3 pips --- week 2 - mar 10-16 (26 trades closed)
+ 400.0 pips --- week 3 - mar 17-23 (39 trades closed)
+ 570.1 pips --- week 4 - mar 24-30 (36 trades closed)
+ 12.3 pips --- week 5 - mar 31-01 (3 trades closed -- current partial week)

2010.04.01-15:29 MDT: OPEN FLOATING TRADES = +1291.7 (8 open trades)
2010.04.01-15:29 MDT: NET PIPS = 3605.0 PIPS earned in 22 trading days.

Hey there Al,

Not be contentious or anything like that, I'm afraid you're dead wrong on both points and thankfully it's not simply a matter of my opinion. 😄
 
Your thinking that the system performance is <0 in 22 trading days seems to be simply a result of misreading the data. Please look again at the log where I've clearly shown that there are 2,313.3 pips CLOSED NET PROFIT in those 22 days PLUS an additional 1291.7 pips open floating profit.

You seem to have misread the log, which is something I've done myself many times so I can relate...

Another thing that you may have missed with respect to the analogy of the house being worth only $150,000 tomorrow when it's time to sell (which is indeed a valid point in real estate) is the fact that the design of our trading system locks in profits. Please take the time to look at our open trades which we publish. You will see that the two long GBPUSD positions that are ahead around $1750 between the two positions have locked in the bulk of their profits with dynamically adjusted trailing stops:

Open Date Symbol Action Lots Open Price TP SL Profit (USD) Pips Swap
Mar 28 at 20:45 GBPUSD Buy 0.21 1.49482 1.5948 1.51235 553.98 263.8 -5.82
Mar 28 at 21:53 GBPUSD Buy 0.41 1.49184 1.5948 1.51235 1203.76 293.6 -11.37

If you look at the opening price, the S/L values that the system is currently utilizing, and the pips earned, etc., it can be seen that these two positions have together locked in something like 370 pips and $1200 or so 'in the bank' so to speak. So to contend that these cannot be counted as profits is not correct when in fact two thirds or more of that open float will never be lost by the system.

There are a lot of details behind the trading of our positions that are not readily apparent. Suffice it to say that stops are managed using a complex machine-learned procedure that is unique to every kind of market signal that the automation detects. These are not simple trailing stops that you are looking at here but are more like managed stops that react in a non-linear fashion to what's happening on the market. I will mention however that these stops are one-way valves, that is to say, like simple trailing stops they will increase profits but they will never move the other way and lose profits or increase losses.

By the way, the low $ performance of the system this month is due to my own lack of judgement and timing with respect to order sizing. The good news is that I've figured that part out too now so in the future the pips and the dollars will bear much more similarity (in fact, I expect the $ will exceed the pips as the system is good at doubling up on winners...)

At this point it seems that there is no reason why our system, when traded properly with the 1:1 ratio base order sizing money management, will not do between 10% - 30% per month. And this is without undue risk resulting from overtrading the funds or using martingale-type methods. In fact, our system is remarkably safe with reasonably tight stops and extensive use of hedging.

t.

Please be advised that we are issuing a warning with respect to the current positioning.

There are a number of conflicting factors going into the GBPUSD pair currently, both technical and fundamental. The bottom line is that some technical methods, such as elliot wave analysis, are showing a likelihood of a drop in cable over the next week or so, and some other analysis conflicts with this and calls for potential rises in cable. Other fundamental factors such as conservative leaning at British polls leading up to the election, and deficit policy in the UK, etc., are threatening further rises. Also factoring in, according to some sources, is the Greek debt / Euro policy issue which may see corresponding increases in the pound as the Euro rises.

That being said, be aware that the system is unusually short right now due to recent-past price movement. Generally when the system becomes less hedged like this (2.99:0.81 shorts to longs) the system is leaning on the correct side. Given current conditions there is increased potential that this may not be the case in this instance. Please be aware if you are following our signals that at the 1:1 ratio base order sizing money management recommendation approximately three week's worth of 'typical returns' are currently at risk.

If these signals work out as they usually do, there will be substantial gains in the next few days. If cable rises sharply in the next few days there will be heavy drawdown and short-term losses equivalent to approximately 3 weeks of earnings.