Strong US data did not change market expectations

Expert market comment from senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: Strong US data did not change market expectations
FxPro | 530天前

America continues to release strong macro data, with a fresh batch of GDP and New Home Sales figures coming above expectations, supporting dollar-buying interest late in the day.

The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.3% in the 4th quarter of 2023.

Analysts, on average, had forecast a slowdown to 2.0% from 4.9% earlier. The economy added 3.1% to the same quarter last year. That's a healthy growth, one that the economy has seen in the second half of 2019 and before that during periods of robust expansion. With this kind of performance, the voices of those predicting an imminent recession are getting quieter.

At the same time, this rate of growth is not pushing up inflation, as has been the case in previous episodes. The GDP price index rose at a rate of 1.5%, much weaker than the 2.3% and 3.3% previously expected.

These data suggest that the economy is managing to combine the tightest monetary conditions in decades, healthy economic growth, and a downward trend in inflation.

As if that weren't enough, the New Home Sales showed an 8% m/m increase, largely reversing the previous month's 9% drop. The current pace of new home sales (664K annualised rate) is within the normal range for the three years since the start of 2017. Thus, the housing market does not appear to be a victim of decades’ high mortgage rates.

Ultimately, the data did not affect expectations for a rate change in March, with the probability of a cut still close to 50%. The market will have to wait for more clarity from the Fed, which may not come until 31 January in the form of Powell's post-FOMC comments and press conference.

Such statistics could also have a positive impact on the equity market, pointing to strong domestic demand. However, the indices, which are close to historic highs, have come under investor scrutiny amid the corporate reporting season.

By the FxPro Analyst Team

 

规则: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
Dollar fights an uphill battle amidst mounting tariff pressure

Dollar fights an uphill battle amidst mounting tariff pressure

More Trump letters to be sent, with copper, chips and pharmas next on the tariff list; Dollar struggles to hold recent gains, except versus the yen; US equities on the back foot, underperforming their European counterparts; RBNZ stands pat; Antipodeans post small gains against the greenback;
XM Group | 17小时10分钟前
ATFX Market Outlook 9th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 9th July 2025

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated the global trade war by announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and reiterated that long-threatened tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are also imminent. U.S. equities ended mixed as investors awaited further clarity on trade policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.07%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.03%
ATFX | 17小时21分钟前
Gold Drops Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Forecasts Shift

Gold Drops Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Forecasts Shift

Gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, extending losses after a 1% decline the previous day. The downward pressure stemmed from the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, which partially offset concerns over escalating trade tensions.
RoboForex | 17小时41分钟前
Oil and Copper Surge as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Escalate | 9th July, 2025

Oil and Copper Surge as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Escalate | 9th July, 2025

On July 9, oil jumps above $67.00 on renewed Red Sea attacks, while copper surges past $5.50 after Trump vows 50% tariffs if re-elected. DXY edges up past 97.50 ahead of FOMC Minutes. China’s CPI surprises slightly at 0.1% YoY, offering mixed signals. AUD/USD trades flat, and markets brace for further volatility driven by Fed outlook and trade policy threats.
Moneta Markets | 20小时59分钟前