US labour market has already turned a corner

Expert market comment from senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: US labour market has already turned a corner
FxPro | 485天前

Friday's employment report caused a mixed reaction in the markets, with an initial surge of optimism followed by a deterioration in sentiment as we delved into the details of the release.

The headline number in the report beat forecasts, something that everyone has pretty much become accustomed to over the past few years. The US economy created 275,000 jobs in February, much better than the 200,000 expected.

But most of the other numbers were not so rosy.  First, last month's gain was revised down from 317k to 229k. This changes the perception of the labour market in January from "dangerously overheating" to "within trend".

Wages rose 0.1% m/m and 4.3% y/y, 0.1 pp weaker than expected for both measures. The pace has been around this level for the past 12 months. While this is above the 2.0-2.5% pace we saw from 2009 to 2017, it does not increase the risk of accelerating inflation.

The BLS gave an even softer reading in another report based on a survey of households. The official unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% in February (no change was expected). The labour force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.

According to the survey, the number of people in employment has fallen for three consecutive months, dropping by 898,000 to 160.97 million. This is the lowest level since April 2023. The expanded U-6 unemployment rate, which takes into account those wanting to work full-time, etc., is 7.3%, the highest since December 2021 and on an upward trend for the past 10 months.

The gap between the NFP and the household survey employment figures has fallen to an all-time low of 3.16 million (April 2020 only).

Thus, the US labour market report was relatively weak, suggesting that some metrics are already turning for the worse. On the one hand, this brings the date for a Fed rate cut closer. But let us be realistic: rate cuts follow volatility and a sharp sell-off in the markets. At least that's been the case for the past half a century.

By the FxPro Analyst Team

规则: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
Dollar fights an uphill battle amidst mounting tariff pressure

Dollar fights an uphill battle amidst mounting tariff pressure

More Trump letters to be sent, with copper, chips and pharmas next on the tariff list; Dollar struggles to hold recent gains, except versus the yen; US equities on the back foot, underperforming their European counterparts; RBNZ stands pat; Antipodeans post small gains against the greenback;
XM Group | 18小时20分钟前
ATFX Market Outlook 9th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 9th July 2025

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated the global trade war by announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and reiterated that long-threatened tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are also imminent. U.S. equities ended mixed as investors awaited further clarity on trade policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.07%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.03%
ATFX | 18小时30分钟前
Gold Drops Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Forecasts Shift

Gold Drops Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Forecasts Shift

Gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, extending losses after a 1% decline the previous day. The downward pressure stemmed from the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, which partially offset concerns over escalating trade tensions.
RoboForex | 18小时50分钟前
Oil and Copper Surge as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Escalate | 9th July, 2025

Oil and Copper Surge as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Escalate | 9th July, 2025

On July 9, oil jumps above $67.00 on renewed Red Sea attacks, while copper surges past $5.50 after Trump vows 50% tariffs if re-elected. DXY edges up past 97.50 ahead of FOMC Minutes. China’s CPI surprises slightly at 0.1% YoY, offering mixed signals. AUD/USD trades flat, and markets brace for further volatility driven by Fed outlook and trade policy threats.
Moneta Markets | 22小时8分钟前