Market Manipulation?

I'm listening. The market is always right? What about the Sterling flash crash a few weeks ago. Was the market right then? If they can crash the market in a couple of minutes, no doubt they are able to manipulate the market daily!!! As for the market being of the view that Clinton would win - were they really of that view or were they misleading people? Setting small traders like myself for a downfall. Why did the market open Sunday Evening with massive gaps and why did USDJPY trade above that gap until the night of the election. You talk about positioning myself and timing my entry etc, but there was nothing wrong with what I did the night of the election except trade!!!

I was fully aware that the gap might be filled, I was long USDJPY and short EURUSD and as I said I expected the market to retrace and fill the gaps, but I was of the opinion that the market would rebound had Clinton won. Both overshot my estimations and soon recovered once Trump was elected. Why is USD going up now? I'm no idiot!!!

EURUSD!!!

Had I been analysing charts 30 - 40 years ago I'd have been considered a genius!!! Not laughing, well nearly!!!

.....or a nutter - whatever!!! I know that's what some people think of me!!! I'm use to it!!!

....but times change, we live in the age of Algorithms now - humans don't matter!!!

IMPORTANT:

My advice to manual traders & newbies or anybody else is to treat what I've been posting with CAUTION because the past few days it seems the market has been doing the total opposite. Having said that I have proved that it has worked in the past!!! Just be careful, especially when trading with real money. Furthermore, always test any strategy, any advice on a demo account before trading live!!!

Good Luck!!!

Greggy posted:
EURUSD - All I want is to be able to compete in a fair market and this market isn't fair to small traders like myself. All I'm doing is what these massive Algorithms are doing day in day out!!! There are literally billions of trend lines. I could draw tram lines day in day out as broker websites tell us to do, but look at how often they break them. Not only that the market is moving sideways!!! Can't win, no matter what you do or you can but it's holding onto your money. I spent hours yesterday morning trying to buy USDCHF up, being guided by trend lines and every time they were being broken. I used stop losses, and I must have lost a dozen or more trades!!!

There are at least three things I noticed from your charts that suggest to me in your trading approach that you need to seriously consider changing if you want to fundamentally improve as a technical trader.

(1) You need to declutter your charts. There are too many lines running across your charts. You obviously is a strong believer in lines but the problem is you don't know how to use them (both in drawing and application). If you know how to use them there would not be that many. Imagine a house with dozen of clocks and they are all telling you a different time. Do you think you will be able to tell the correct time? If telling the time is important for you in trading, you need to spend time to understand how it is meant to work. You should read up on the trading books that teaches the use of trend lines in trading.

(2)In your charts, I note that you have charts in 5M, 15M and 30M TF. You need to decide on which time frame is your trading time frame. In other words, your trade decisions should be based on a singular TF. Switching TF's is a common problem in trading and while there are benefits to having multiple TF's, you still need to have a primary trading TF.

(3)The EURUSD has been on a strong downtrend in the past few sessions (1H TF) with successive lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Not a single lower swing high has been taken out and yet all your trade decisions are on the buy side. In effect you are trading against the trend. They are low probability trades and you should avoid trading against the trend especially at your skill level. Remember the trend is your friend. Don't get into the top and bottom picking business.
         

Decided to give my mouth a rest.

God Bless & Good Luck with your Trading!!!

Greggy you expect something that happened before- same thing to happen again but under different circumstances. see? indicators will always be late. you need to figure your own method to triangulate price movement and corner price only BASED upon what others have done (elliot wave, etc). problem is not only different market conditions, the trader is different too. like drivers are different - you dont drive exactly like anyone else and teh road conditions will never be exactly teh same again as they ever where at any point in time ever. its a chinese puzzle you have to figure out for yourself bud.

Tony Gregg my name sake, study carefully what Dove Services have written, he is 100% correct, The market doesnt care about you, she is always right.

I started making profits only when i started doing less...i.e 1 currency pair, 1 TF, 1 or 2 Trendlines etc

And one more thing, do not pay attention to the news or fundamentals, these are designed to confuse you, just trade directly from your charts,

A question you should always ask yourself before placing a trade is ...........WERE IS PRICE GOING NOW? UP OR DOWN? just follow price, hold for few pips and exit...Always limit your exposure to the market as a small time trader.

Greggy posted:
I'm listening. The market is always right? What about the Sterling flash crash a few weeks ago. Was the market right then? If they can crash the market in a couple of minutes, no doubt they are able to manipulate the market daily!!!

What about the Cable crash a few weeks ago? The market direction is dictated by supply and demand. The problem with your mindset is that you are thinking in terms of being right or wrong. In trading the currency market, the only thing that matters is whether you are profitable or not. Don't confuse being right as being profitable. The market is always right because at any point of time, the transacted price reflects willing buyer and seller. It may be manipulated but the 'why' is irrelevant because our role as a trader is to exploit the opportunities when they become available. If you don't know how to do it then you are not ready for prime time. Complaining about it doesn't change your personal situation. If you are unable to handle it there are less stressful hobbies like gardening. Do you seriously think that being able to draw some lines and knowing about fibs will enable you go against seasoned professionals who do this for a living?

As for the market being of the view that Clinton would win - were they really of that view or were they misleading people? Setting small traders like myself for a downfall. Why did the market open Sunday Evening with massive gaps and why did USDJPY trade above that gap until the night of the election. You talk about positioning myself and timing my entry etc, but there was nothing wrong with what I did the night of the election except trade!!!

Unless you were hibernating in a cave in the days leading to the US election, there were plenty of professionally related news sounding out to expect increased volatility and tightening margin requirements. The fact that the night of the election you were still treating the imminent market event as business as usual projects to me how out of place you are with market reality. There were plenty of market chatter about what a Trump win might mean and how to trade it. Here is one by Jarratt Davies written a few days before the election.
https://www.jarrattdavis.com/trade-the-us-elections/

Barclays sent out an alert note a few hours before the election on currency pairs to trade if it was a Trump win.

Our job as traders is to be prepared for trade opportunities if they present themselves. If you don't know how to exploit market events then you are simply not ready.

I was fully aware that the gap might be filled, I was long USDJPY and short EURUSD and as I said I expected the market to retrace and fill the gaps, but I was of the opinion that the market would rebound had Clinton won. Both overshot my estimations and soon recovered once Trump was elected. Why is USD going up now? I'm no idiot!!!

Your statements highlight your ignorance and arrogance. You think your opinion is right and the market should conform to your views. If not, then there must be something wrong with the market.
If the USD is going up what is wrong with that? Trade what you see. In my view the market sees Trump's policy as pro growth and that is positive on the USD. Trump plans to repatriate the trillions out there but current tax policy is preventing US companies from bringing it home. What do you think will happen when the market has to buy trillions of USD to repatriate?

Greggy posted:
Looks like market manipulation to me!!! Any views?

There is more truth to your statement than you realise. We live in The Matrix (literally). There is no such thing as 'pure chance' - everything is 'determinable' (but I do not mean 'pre-determined') eg. random number generators (https://www.howtogeek.com/183051/htg-explains-how-computers-generate-random-numbers/)

Consequentially, the markets are also 'determinable'. The perception is that price attempts to determine fair value. The reality is that price is determined by existential market forces.

People would do well to wake up to 'reality': We are living in a computer simulation, a holographic reality.

I think is very important to work with Brokers regulate by NFA or FSA..

@BluePanther What you say kind of makes sense but I think what you wrote below is too much of a conspiracy theory:

People would do well to wake up to 'reality': We are living in a computer simulation, a holographic reality.

I would disagree about the matrix but I appreciate your different point of view.

paulvan posted:
I think is very important to work with Brokers regulate by NFA or FSA..

Why these 2 particularly? I know a lot of cases when brokers regulated by these entities also got fined for manipulations. If you are based in USA or UK, these are the most authoritative bodies for sure. But in Europe and other regions it's different.

paulvan posted:
I think is very important to work with Brokers regulate by NFA or FSA..

Lol like NFA or FSA ensure fair play. HAHAHA

Yeah, I agree with Martin. US and UK regulated brokers are a safer bet. Tickmill is now UK regulated which is a good broker. I am rather skeptical on the level of manipulation out there though by some other brokers. It can happen but not as much as unprofitable traders think. Most people lose money because of poor money management not bad brokers

Lteep1 posted:
I am rather skeptical on the level of manipulation out there though by some other brokers. It can happen but not as much as unprofitable traders think. Most people lose money because of poor money management not bad brokers

I can agree here that sometimes the ego does not allow us to accept it was all our fault. However from what I read in news and forums even here on MFB, the brokers also can be very manipulative. But it has to be taken on a case by case basis.

c3po posted:

paulvan posted:
I think is very important to work with Brokers regulate by NFA or FSA..

Lol like NFA or FSA ensure fair play. HAHAHA

In every country the regulators are just a part of the bureaucracy from the government. Sure it is good when they penalise the bad brokers but it is up to the brokers to decide which way to go - to cheat or play fair. We just need to be careful when selecting the broker.