FED Bot讨论

Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

Can you explain your position on this and the Pips a little more... I am new and don't understand why this is so bad. Thank you!

CaseyFall posted:

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

Can you explain your position on this and the Pips a little more... I am new and don't understand why this is so bad. Thank you!

I am similarly interested in understanding the data and analysis supporting these conclusions, judgments and predictions.

If youths prediction is correct then you would be doing us all a favor by teaching us what you know. I’m open to learning, so please share your knowledge, and thanks in advance!

4ArrowsOnlineLLC posted:

CaseyFall posted:

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

Can you explain your position on this and the Pips a little more... I am new and don't understand why this is so bad. Thank you!

I am similarly interested in understanding the data and analysis supporting these conclusions, judgments and predictions.

If youths prediction is correct then you would be doing us all a favor by teaching us what you know. I’m open to learning, so please share your knowledge, and thanks in advance!

Hey guys, I’ll explain more. When a trading system doesn’t capture any pips, that means it doesn’t capture price movements. It has no alpha, or ability to realize excess returns compared to the underlying asset. In this case, we see that the pips are negative, which means the system has actually lost over 6,000 pips at this time. So how does it make money?

Systems like these, with no alpha, make money because they bet against highly improbable (yet inevitable) events through progressive betting. That is what I meant when I said it bets on the ‘tail’ (a statistical term for a low likelihood outcome) not occurring. However, tail events inevitably happen, and thats when these systems crash.

You can think of it like roulette. Let’s say you double down each time you lose. You lose more rounds than you win (no alpha), but you make money because you are betting against a losing streak (the tail). This works until the losing streak continues, and you lose all your money.

It’s the exact same with this system and others like it. They lose more pips than they gain, but they make money because they bet more and more against a loss until they make it all back, or the account explodes.

If you notice, the gains are approximately linear and the losses are exponential. This is because the system is using a multiplier to bet. After I pointed out the fact that I could see the position sizes being multiplied on their Facebook post, they made that information private. It’s incredibly clear that this system is just a cash grab that only exists to impress people in the short term and scam them while it lasts.

In conclusion: stay far away from this system and others like it. It has no probabilistic edge. You will lose all your money at some point.

advillegas posted:

4ArrowsOnlineLLC posted:

CaseyFall posted:

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

Can you explain your position on this and the Pips a little more... I am new and don't understand why this is so bad. Thank you!

I am similarly interested in understanding the data and analysis supporting these conclusions, judgments and predictions.

If youths prediction is correct then you would be doing us all a favor by teaching us what you know. I’m open to learning, so please share your knowledge, and thanks in advance!

Hey guys, I’ll explain more. When a trading system doesn’t capture any pips, that means it doesn’t capture price movements. It has no alpha, or ability to realize excess returns compared to the underlying asset. In this case, we see that the pips are negative, which means the system has actually lost over 6,000 pips at this time. So how does it make money?

Systems like these, with no alpha, make money because they bet against highly improbable (yet inevitable) events through progressive betting. That is what I meant when I said it bets on the ‘tail’ (a statistical term for a low likelihood outcome) not occurring. However, tail events inevitably happen, and thats when these systems crash.

You can think of it like roulette. Let’s say you double down each time you lose. You lose more rounds than you win (no alpha), but you make money because you are betting against a losing streak (the tail). This works until the losing streak continues, and you lose all your money.

It’s the exact same with this system and others like it. They lose more pips than they gain, but they make money because they bet more and more against a loss until they make it all back, or the account explodes.

If you notice, the gains are approximately linear and the losses are exponential. This is because the system is using a multiplier to bet. After I pointed out the fact that I could see the position sizes being multiplied on their Facebook post, they made that information private. It’s incredibly clear that this system is just a cash grab that only exists to impress people in the short term and scam them while it lasts.

In conclusion: stay far away from this system and others like it. It has no probabilistic edge. You will lose all your money at some point.

Hi Aaron,

We thank you for the engagement.

You're only arguments against our system is the fact that it 'has no edge' and 'will blow up.'

I would say a system that is up 222% in 8 months (up another 20%+ since your original comment) has an edge. Not to mention it wins over 70% of both shorts and longs with a profit factor of 1.85 over the course of thousands and thousands of trades. This system has been strategically optimized on over 20 FX pairs based on years of data so each pair trades uniquely to fit the historical price action and volatility. So yes it does increase size on trades when it feels there is a reversal coming.

Your argument against how it will eventually blow up is also pretty weak. It has sustained hundreds of percents gains on some accounts for almost 3 years now. It has also triumphed through the fastest rate hike in history, soaring inflation, economic uncertainty and wars. I would argue that is pretty impressive to do 222% during that time. Could it blow up? Yes. Any system could blow up. We like to pull principle when the account doubles to protect our capital. We haven't done that yet but we will do it this week just for you.

If you want to optimize for pips go for it. We optimize for profit.

Lastly, we have not changed anything with the myfxbook reporting. I am unsure of what you are alluding to with us changing things after a facebook post? We have not removed certain statistics from the myfx reporting and definitely do not own any brokers to ever change or deceive viewers of this data in anyway.

Jeffsek posted:

advillegas posted:

4ArrowsOnlineLLC posted:

CaseyFall posted:

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

Can you explain your position on this and the Pips a little more... I am new and don't understand why this is so bad. Thank you!

I am similarly interested in understanding the data and analysis supporting these conclusions, judgments and predictions.

If youths prediction is correct then you would be doing us all a favor by teaching us what you know. I’m open to learning, so please share your knowledge, and thanks in advance!

Hey guys, I’ll explain more. When a trading system doesn’t capture any pips, that means it doesn’t capture price movements. It has no alpha, or ability to realize excess returns compared to the underlying asset. In this case, we see that the pips are negative, which means the system has actually lost over 6,000 pips at this time. So how does it make money?

Systems like these, with no alpha, make money because they bet against highly improbable (yet inevitable) events through progressive betting. That is what I meant when I said it bets on the ‘tail’ (a statistical term for a low likelihood outcome) not occurring. However, tail events inevitably happen, and thats when these systems crash.

You can think of it like roulette. Let’s say you double down each time you lose. You lose more rounds than you win (no alpha), but you make money because you are betting against a losing streak (the tail). This works until the losing streak continues, and you lose all your money.

It’s the exact same with this system and others like it. They lose more pips than they gain, but they make money because they bet more and more against a loss until they make it all back, or the account explodes.

If you notice, the gains are approximately linear and the losses are exponential. This is because the system is using a multiplier to bet. After I pointed out the fact that I could see the position sizes being multiplied on their Facebook post, they made that information private. It’s incredibly clear that this system is just a cash grab that only exists to impress people in the short term and scam them while it lasts.

In conclusion: stay far away from this system and others like it. It has no probabilistic edge. You will lose all your money at some point.

Hi Aaron,

We thank you for the engagement.

You're only arguments against our system is the fact that it 'has no edge' and 'will blow up.'

I would say a system that is up 222% in 8 months (up another 20%+ since your original comment) has an edge. Not to mention it wins over 70% of both shorts and longs with a profit factor of 1.85 over the course of thousands and thousands of trades. This system has been strategically optimized on over 20 FX pairs based on years of data so each pair trades uniquely to fit the historical price action and volatility. So yes it does increase size on trades when it feels there is a reversal coming.

Your argument against how it will eventually blow up is also pretty weak. It has sustained hundreds of percents gains on some accounts for almost 3 years now. It has also triumphed through the fastest rate hike in history, soaring inflation, economic uncertainty and wars. I would argue that is pretty impressive to do 222% during that time. Could it blow up? Yes. Any system could blow up. We like to pull principle when the account doubles to protect our capital. We haven't done that yet but we will do it this week just for you.

If you want to optimize for pips go for it. We optimize for profit.

Lastly, we have not changed anything with the myfxbook reporting. I am unsure of what you are alluding to with us changing things after a facebook post? We have not removed certain statistics from the myfx reporting and definitely do not own any brokers to ever change or deceive viewers of this data in anyway.

You literally have no basis for anything you’re saying. Your system has no edge. Your system has no alpha. It does not realize excess returns on the underlying asset. This is just a fact. Stable systems don’t “blow up.” You have fooled others and you may have even fooled yourself. Again, can’t wait for this thing to blow. It’ll happen, and I’ll be watching.

advillegas posted:

Jeffsek posted:

advillegas posted:

4ArrowsOnlineLLC posted:

CaseyFall posted:

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

Can you explain your position on this and the Pips a little more... I am new and don't understand why this is so bad. Thank you!

I am similarly interested in understanding the data and analysis supporting these conclusions, judgments and predictions.

If youths prediction is correct then you would be doing us all a favor by teaching us what you know. I’m open to learning, so please share your knowledge, and thanks in advance!

Hey guys, I’ll explain more. When a trading system doesn’t capture any pips, that means it doesn’t capture price movements. It has no alpha, or ability to realize excess returns compared to the underlying asset. In this case, we see that the pips are negative, which means the system has actually lost over 6,000 pips at this time. So how does it make money?

Systems like these, with no alpha, make money because they bet against highly improbable (yet inevitable) events through progressive betting. That is what I meant when I said it bets on the ‘tail’ (a statistical term for a low likelihood outcome) not occurring. However, tail events inevitably happen, and thats when these systems crash.

You can think of it like roulette. Let’s say you double down each time you lose. You lose more rounds than you win (no alpha), but you make money because you are betting against a losing streak (the tail). This works until the losing streak continues, and you lose all your money.

It’s the exact same with this system and others like it. They lose more pips than they gain, but they make money because they bet more and more against a loss until they make it all back, or the account explodes.

If you notice, the gains are approximately linear and the losses are exponential. This is because the system is using a multiplier to bet. After I pointed out the fact that I could see the position sizes being multiplied on their Facebook post, they made that information private. It’s incredibly clear that this system is just a cash grab that only exists to impress people in the short term and scam them while it lasts.

In conclusion: stay far away from this system and others like it. It has no probabilistic edge. You will lose all your money at some point.

Hi Aaron,

We thank you for the engagement.

You're only arguments against our system is the fact that it 'has no edge' and 'will blow up.'

I would say a system that is up 222% in 8 months (up another 20%+ since your original comment) has an edge. Not to mention it wins over 70% of both shorts and longs with a profit factor of 1.85 over the course of thousands and thousands of trades. This system has been strategically optimized on over 20 FX pairs based on years of data so each pair trades uniquely to fit the historical price action and volatility. So yes it does increase size on trades when it feels there is a reversal coming.

Your argument against how it will eventually blow up is also pretty weak. It has sustained hundreds of percents gains on some accounts for almost 3 years now. It has also triumphed through the fastest rate hike in history, soaring inflation, economic uncertainty and wars. I would argue that is pretty impressive to do 222% during that time. Could it blow up? Yes. Any system could blow up. We like to pull principle when the account doubles to protect our capital. We haven't done that yet but we will do it this week just for you.

If you want to optimize for pips go for it. We optimize for profit.

Lastly, we have not changed anything with the myfxbook reporting. I am unsure of what you are alluding to with us changing things after a facebook post? We have not removed certain statistics from the myfx reporting and definitely do not own any brokers to ever change or deceive viewers of this data in anyway.

You literally have no basis for anything you’re saying. Your system has no edge. Your system has no alpha. It does not realize excess returns on the underlying asset. This is just a fact. Stable systems don’t “blow up.” You have fooled others and you may have even fooled yourself. Again, can’t wait for this thing to blow. It’ll happen, and I’ll be watching.

We have no basis for anything we are saying?...

We have provided the data and analytics to support all of our claims that the system does have alpha.

I believe you are the only one here with no basis for claims.

We have clearly shown 70%+ win rates. 1.8+ profit factors. Over 200% returns only 8 months into this year. Yet you want to say that does't matter because you are in love with pips?

Sounds a bit delusional.

Feel free to keep monitoring. We have already pulled principle from this account and are now playing with $50,000 in house money.

Jeffsek posted:

advillegas posted:

Jeffsek posted:

advillegas posted:

4ArrowsOnlineLLC posted:

CaseyFall posted:

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

Can you explain your position on this and the Pips a little more... I am new and don't understand why this is so bad. Thank you!

I am similarly interested in understanding the data and analysis supporting these conclusions, judgments and predictions.

If youths prediction is correct then you would be doing us all a favor by teaching us what you know. I’m open to learning, so please share your knowledge, and thanks in advance!

Hey guys, I’ll explain more. When a trading system doesn’t capture any pips, that means it doesn’t capture price movements. It has no alpha, or ability to realize excess returns compared to the underlying asset. In this case, we see that the pips are negative, which means the system has actually lost over 6,000 pips at this time. So how does it make money?

Systems like these, with no alpha, make money because they bet against highly improbable (yet inevitable) events through progressive betting. That is what I meant when I said it bets on the ‘tail’ (a statistical term for a low likelihood outcome) not occurring. However, tail events inevitably happen, and thats when these systems crash.

You can think of it like roulette. Let’s say you double down each time you lose. You lose more rounds than you win (no alpha), but you make money because you are betting against a losing streak (the tail). This works until the losing streak continues, and you lose all your money.

It’s the exact same with this system and others like it. They lose more pips than they gain, but they make money because they bet more and more against a loss until they make it all back, or the account explodes.

If you notice, the gains are approximately linear and the losses are exponential. This is because the system is using a multiplier to bet. After I pointed out the fact that I could see the position sizes being multiplied on their Facebook post, they made that information private. It’s incredibly clear that this system is just a cash grab that only exists to impress people in the short term and scam them while it lasts.

In conclusion: stay far away from this system and others like it. It has no probabilistic edge. You will lose all your money at some point.

Hi Aaron,

We thank you for the engagement.

You're only arguments against our system is the fact that it 'has no edge' and 'will blow up.'

I would say a system that is up 222% in 8 months (up another 20%+ since your original comment) has an edge. Not to mention it wins over 70% of both shorts and longs with a profit factor of 1.85 over the course of thousands and thousands of trades. This system has been strategically optimized on over 20 FX pairs based on years of data so each pair trades uniquely to fit the historical price action and volatility. So yes it does increase size on trades when it feels there is a reversal coming.

Your argument against how it will eventually blow up is also pretty weak. It has sustained hundreds of percents gains on some accounts for almost 3 years now. It has also triumphed through the fastest rate hike in history, soaring inflation, economic uncertainty and wars. I would argue that is pretty impressive to do 222% during that time. Could it blow up? Yes. Any system could blow up. We like to pull principle when the account doubles to protect our capital. We haven't done that yet but we will do it this week just for you.

If you want to optimize for pips go for it. We optimize for profit.

Lastly, we have not changed anything with the myfxbook reporting. I am unsure of what you are alluding to with us changing things after a facebook post? We have not removed certain statistics from the myfx reporting and definitely do not own any brokers to ever change or deceive viewers of this data in anyway.

You literally have no basis for anything you’re saying. Your system has no edge. Your system has no alpha. It does not realize excess returns on the underlying asset. This is just a fact. Stable systems don’t “blow up.” You have fooled others and you may have even fooled yourself. Again, can’t wait for this thing to blow. It’ll happen, and I’ll be watching.

We have no basis for anything we are saying?...

We have provided the data and analytics to support all of our claims that the system does have alpha.

I believe you are the only one here with no basis for claims.

We have clearly shown 70%+ win rates. 1.8+ profit factors. Over 200% returns only 8 months into this year. Yet you want to say that does't matter because you are in love with pips?

Sounds a bit delusional.

Feel free to keep monitoring. We have already pulled principle from this account and are now playing with $50,000 in house money.

Your system cannot realize losses and be profitable. That means only one thing: the account will crash eventually. It doesn’t matter if you yourself were able to pull out your initial deposits as profit. This is pure happenstance luck.

Aaron is spot on correct. Jeff, sorry to say, you’re either new to this and naive, or just straight up unethical….. just like 99.999% of all those hyping up forex bots. Or both.
3 years tracks Jeff? Please!?…..Why not publish them alongside these others? They don’t exist. Your accounts will blow. You know it. And if you’ve backtested 5-7+ years, the backtests show it as well, and you know it. That’s why you don’t show them. You act like you’re noble to not publish backtest, when actually the opposite is true. You know these strategies historically blow up. But you’re banking on the hope you have a good 1-2 years before they blow for your clients.
With the kind of connections you say you have, you would be managing a large fund if you knew these strategies worked for the long term. You wouldn’t be selling it. Nobody would. Nobody who is financially literate and has worked at “the largest bank” in the USA would sell a strategy that works long term and will reliably deliver profits year after year. They would leverage their connections with the “Big Bank”, never share their strategy, and manage a 9 or 10 figure fund with it. The top funds in the world earn 15% to 40% annually. The best of the best. You’ve discovered nothing more than a short term fantasy that won’t end well for your clients.
Aaron is 100% correct. Your accounts will blow up. Just a matter of time. I’m speaking from 23 years experience in forex fund management. I’ve seen this story play out more times than I can count, and I’m sure Aaron has as well. You play off of greed and FOMO, to make a quick buck. With no care for your clients long term financial well being. Unfortunately there’s a new sucker born every minute and you’re capitalizing on that fact. Come back at me with what you want, facts are facts. Many have come before you with the same model, and all have ended the same way you will. It’s statistically inevitable. The black swan event will come. It always does for strategies built on these methods.
BUYERS BEWARE!!!!

advillegas posted:

Jeffsek posted:

advillegas posted:

Jeffsek posted:

advillegas posted:

4ArrowsOnlineLLC posted:

CaseyFall posted:

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

Can you explain your position on this and the Pips a little more... I am new and don't understand why this is so bad. Thank you!

I am similarly interested in understanding the data and analysis supporting these conclusions, judgments and predictions.

If youths prediction is correct then you would be doing us all a favor by teaching us what you know. I’m open to learning, so please share your knowledge, and thanks in advance!

Hey guys, I’ll explain more. When a trading system doesn’t capture any pips, that means it doesn’t capture price movements. It has no alpha, or ability to realize excess returns compared to the underlying asset. In this case, we see that the pips are negative, which means the system has actually lost over 6,000 pips at this time. So how does it make money?

Systems like these, with no alpha, make money because they bet against highly improbable (yet inevitable) events through progressive betting. That is what I meant when I said it bets on the ‘tail’ (a statistical term for a low likelihood outcome) not occurring. However, tail events inevitably happen, and thats when these systems crash.

You can think of it like roulette. Let’s say you double down each time you lose. You lose more rounds than you win (no alpha), but you make money because you are betting against a losing streak (the tail). This works until the losing streak continues, and you lose all your money.

It’s the exact same with this system and others like it. They lose more pips than they gain, but they make money because they bet more and more against a loss until they make it all back, or the account explodes.

If you notice, the gains are approximately linear and the losses are exponential. This is because the system is using a multiplier to bet. After I pointed out the fact that I could see the position sizes being multiplied on their Facebook post, they made that information private. It’s incredibly clear that this system is just a cash grab that only exists to impress people in the short term and scam them while it lasts.

In conclusion: stay far away from this system and others like it. It has no probabilistic edge. You will lose all your money at some point.

Hi Aaron,

We thank you for the engagement.

You're only arguments against our system is the fact that it 'has no edge' and 'will blow up.'

I would say a system that is up 222% in 8 months (up another 20%+ since your original comment) has an edge. Not to mention it wins over 70% of both shorts and longs with a profit factor of 1.85 over the course of thousands and thousands of trades. This system has been strategically optimized on over 20 FX pairs based on years of data so each pair trades uniquely to fit the historical price action and volatility. So yes it does increase size on trades when it feels there is a reversal coming.

Your argument against how it will eventually blow up is also pretty weak. It has sustained hundreds of percents gains on some accounts for almost 3 years now. It has also triumphed through the fastest rate hike in history, soaring inflation, economic uncertainty and wars. I would argue that is pretty impressive to do 222% during that time. Could it blow up? Yes. Any system could blow up. We like to pull principle when the account doubles to protect our capital. We haven't done that yet but we will do it this week just for you.

If you want to optimize for pips go for it. We optimize for profit.

Lastly, we have not changed anything with the myfxbook reporting. I am unsure of what you are alluding to with us changing things after a facebook post? We have not removed certain statistics from the myfx reporting and definitely do not own any brokers to ever change or deceive viewers of this data in anyway.

You literally have no basis for anything you’re saying. Your system has no edge. Your system has no alpha. It does not realize excess returns on the underlying asset. This is just a fact. Stable systems don’t “blow up.” You have fooled others and you may have even fooled yourself. Again, can’t wait for this thing to blow. It’ll happen, and I’ll be watching.

We have no basis for anything we are saying?...

We have provided the data and analytics to support all of our claims that the system does have alpha.

I believe you are the only one here with no basis for claims.

We have clearly shown 70%+ win rates. 1.8+ profit factors. Over 200% returns only 8 months into this year. Yet you want to say that does't matter because you are in love with pips?

Sounds a bit delusional.

Feel free to keep monitoring. We have already pulled principle from this account and are now playing with $50,000 in house money.

Your system cannot realize losses and be profitable. That means only one thing: the account will crash eventually. It doesn’t matter if you yourself were able to pull out your initial deposits as profit. This is pure happenstance luck.

“The user has deleted the system” lolol

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

1000 accounts just blew up in July for AUDJPY…

advillegas posted:

4ArrowsOnlineLLC posted:

CaseyFall posted:

advillegas posted:
Can't wait for this thing to blow. Immoral system developers deserve everything that is coming to them for developing products like this. It should be a red flag to everyone that this system has not gained any pips in over 5,000 trades. That necessarily means that it has no edge, and that the money making 'edge' just depends on the tail not occurring.

Can you explain your position on this and the Pips a little more... I am new and don't understand why this is so bad. Thank you!

I am similarly interested in understanding the data and analysis supporting these conclusions, judgments and predictions.

If youths prediction is correct then you would be doing us all a favor by teaching us what you know. I’m open to learning, so please share your knowledge, and thanks in advance!

Hey guys, I’ll explain more. When a trading system doesn’t capture any pips, that means it doesn’t capture price movements. It has no alpha, or ability to realize excess returns compared to the underlying asset. In this case, we see that the pips are negative, which means the system has actually lost over 6,000 pips at this time. So how does it make money?

Systems like these, with no alpha, make money because they bet against highly improbable (yet inevitable) events through progressive betting. That is what I meant when I said it bets on the ‘tail’ (a statistical term for a low likelihood outcome) not occurring. However, tail events inevitably happen, and thats when these systems crash.

You can think of it like roulette. Let’s say you double down each time you lose. You lose more rounds than you win (no alpha), but you make money because you are betting against a losing streak (the tail). This works until the losing streak continues, and you lose all your money.

It’s the exact same with this system and others like it. They lose more pips than they gain, but they make money because they bet more and more against a loss until they make it all back, or the account explodes.

If you notice, the gains are approximately linear and the losses are exponential. This is because the system is using a multiplier to bet. After I pointed out the fact that I could see the position sizes being multiplied on their Facebook post, they made that information private. It’s incredibly clear that this system is just a cash grab that only exists to impress people in the short term and scam them while it lasts.

In conclusion: stay far away from this system and others like it. It has no probabilistic edge. You will lose all your money at some point.

Spot on, Martingale systems eventually blow up.