Who can earn 100% return a month with a DD below 50% and on a regular basis?
Mitglied seit May 04, 2012
1608 Posts
Dec 21, 2015 at 12:32
(bearbeitet Dec 21, 2015 at 12:32)
@wernerdj7
Please see my edited post above.
To answer your question: 'a p-value helps you determine the significance of results'. When sample size is low, its 'p-value' is high, which means that the results COULD BE due to randomness (but not necessarily), and so they have less reliability.
Please see my edited post above.
To answer your question: 'a p-value helps you determine the significance of results'. When sample size is low, its 'p-value' is high, which means that the results COULD BE due to randomness (but not necessarily), and so they have less reliability.
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Mitglied seit May 04, 2012
1608 Posts
Dec 21, 2015 at 13:39
@wernerdj7
As mentioned, what really concerns me is the fact that there not a single stop loss. It means that the EA might follow a 'Win or Die' strategy, so the entire account is at risk.
As the enclosed screenshot confirms, the shown trade went into -26.9 pips DD with 10 lots, so the DD was -2577 USD... (Interestingly the trader has withdrawn 3500 USD profit right after this SCARY trade.)
But what if the price had gone against the trade by another -100 or -200 pips without looking back...?? It is simple: Margin Call and crash of the account.
You can see it yourself if you hover your mosue cursor above the pink shaded area on the right (directly on the strategy's Trade History).
As mentioned, what really concerns me is the fact that there not a single stop loss. It means that the EA might follow a 'Win or Die' strategy, so the entire account is at risk.
As the enclosed screenshot confirms, the shown trade went into -26.9 pips DD with 10 lots, so the DD was -2577 USD... (Interestingly the trader has withdrawn 3500 USD profit right after this SCARY trade.)
But what if the price had gone against the trade by another -100 or -200 pips without looking back...?? It is simple: Margin Call and crash of the account.
You can see it yourself if you hover your mosue cursor above the pink shaded area on the right (directly on the strategy's Trade History).
Anhänge:
Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
Mitglied seit Nov 01, 2015
120 Posts
Dec 21, 2015 at 15:21
FxMasterGuru posted:
@wernerdj7
As mentioned, what really concerns me is the fact that there not a single stop loss. It means that the EA might follow a 'Win or Die' strategy, so the entire account is at risk.
As the enclosed screenshot confirms, the shown trade went into -26.9 pips DD with 10 lots, so the DD was -2577 USD... (Interestingly the trader has withdrawn 3500 USD profit right after this SCARY trade.)
But what if the price had gone against the trade by another -100 or -200 pips without looking back...?? It is simple: Margin Call and crash of the account.
You can see it yourself if you hover your mosue cursor above the pink shaded area on the right (directly on the strategy's Trade History).
Remember that most EA's use hidden stop loss, in which orders are hedged once the desired sl is hit. Example the ea i uses doesn't us a hard stop loss, but once the bid touches a given price, then the EA automatically hedges the open order and then closes the losing trade. That of course will never show up on myfxbook as it is a code written into the script!
Mitglied seit May 04, 2012
1608 Posts
Dec 22, 2015 at 00:23
The bottom line: Since there is no single loss in trade history it is simply impossible tell where is the 'hidden' stop loss. If there was a SL at all...
The DD in the above provided example was -5.7% so the SL is definitely more than -5%.
The DD in the above provided example was -5.7% so the SL is definitely more than -5%.
Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
Mitglied seit Nov 01, 2015
120 Posts
Dec 22, 2015 at 07:23
FxMasterGuru posted:
The bottom line: Since there is no single loss in trade history it is simply impossible tell where is the 'hidden' stop loss. If there was a SL at all...
The DD in the above provided example was -5.7% so the SL is definitely more than -5%.
Look closer.... The trade might be hedging his losses, in which he comes back to the loss and closes it while it is in green.
forex_trader_292217
Mitglied seit Dec 15, 2015
18 Posts
Dec 23, 2015 at 07:29
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Robot2015/robot-2015/1452764
Yes is possible... low DD and good return.
Yes is possible... low DD and good return.
Mitglied seit Dec 10, 2015
169 Posts
Dec 23, 2015 at 15:42
Robot2015 posted:
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Robot2015/robot-2015/1452764
Yes is possible... low DD and good return.
gr8 job keep it up.But hope its not arbitrage.
forex_trader_292217
Mitglied seit Dec 15, 2015
18 Posts
Dec 24, 2015 at 07:26
hermonysystem posted:Robot2015 posted:
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Robot2015/robot-2015/1452764
Yes is possible... low DD and good return.
gr8 job keep it up.But hope its not arbitrage.
Not arbitrage
Jan 16, 2016 at 17:40
Top Forex Robot
Mitglied seit May 20, 2011
724 Posts
Jan 16, 2016 at 20:36
Exactly my point, there is no such thing. So let us all just trade with a realistic approach and be safe with our capital. End of thread.
forex_trader_222069
Mitglied seit Dec 16, 2014
6 Posts
Jan 19, 2016 at 07:34
I would take 5-10% growth a month over 100% any-day. 100% growth in a month, I know for sure I will lose all my money at some point. 😐😲
Mitglied seit May 20, 2011
724 Posts
Jan 19, 2016 at 11:01
bwaskey1 posted:exactly. even 10% per month is very reaching great performance. if you can do 10% a month I will give you a million to invest.
I would take 5-10% growth a month over 100% any-day. 100% growth in a month, I know for sure I will lose all my money at some point. 😐😲
Mitglied seit Feb 22, 2011
4862 Posts
Jan 19, 2016 at 11:02
mrtodd posted:
OK, I already know what 80% of the comments are going to be so let me state this right off the bat, I'm not trying to find someone to manage millions of dollars. I'm not looking for a safe and secure investment. I'm looking for those risk takers with some skill. I'm just curious, that's all. Hoping a few people would like to share their progress.
So for the sake of this thread, the only requirements are:
1. 100% monthly return or greater
2. Max draw down of 50%
If you have an account making 95% return with 10% DD, please don't post it here (send me a PM though 'cause I'll totally follow you with real money...lol)
THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE :)
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr/revenge/1143440
Jan 19, 2016 at 11:39
FXtrader2010 posted:bwaskey1 posted:exactly. even 10% per month is very reaching great performance. if you can do 10% a month I will give you a million to invest.
I would take 5-10% growth a month over 100% any-day. 100% growth in a month, I know for sure I will lose all my money at some point. 😐😲
If you're serious about that comment, I'd like to get to know you more, for the benefit of both of us. I can generate 5% a month at a considerably low drawdown level.
Jan 19, 2016 at 14:18
Hey, mrtodd,
I will tell you one thing:
if only traders look for more profitable ways in forex, searching alternative ways, and if they used the experimental technique, as I have done in 10 years of continuous tests, they eventually would find a winning system. Well, I found it and will soon be available to all (for a fee, of course, I am entitled to be paid for nights after nights of work for all these years).
I allowed myself to call this 'forex 2.0', because its very nature is not in compliance with as 99.99% of forex traders means.
I will tell you one thing:
if only traders look for more profitable ways in forex, searching alternative ways, and if they used the experimental technique, as I have done in 10 years of continuous tests, they eventually would find a winning system. Well, I found it and will soon be available to all (for a fee, of course, I am entitled to be paid for nights after nights of work for all these years).
I allowed myself to call this 'forex 2.0', because its very nature is not in compliance with as 99.99% of forex traders means.
Trust no one but yourself -
forex_trader_222069
Mitglied seit Dec 16, 2014
6 Posts
Jan 19, 2016 at 15:04
FXtrader2010 posted:bwaskey1 posted:exactly. even 10% per month is very reaching great performance. if you can do 10% a month I will give you a million to invest.
I would take 5-10% growth a month over 100% any-day. 100% growth in a month, I know for sure I will lose all my money at some point. 😐😲
You can direct message my brother as he takes care those details for me. His profile is linked below.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/TRENTFX
Mitglied seit Nov 16, 2015
9 Posts
Jan 19, 2016 at 15:06
everyone keeps veering off track.
The original OP clearly said 100% gain/mo and max 50% DD OR 2:1 gain to max DD ratio (because in that case the followers can scale however they want according to how much DD they are OK with, they can do 100% gain 50% max DD or 20% gain 10% max DD). NO martigrids.
I would also add to the proposed criteria:
1) 6 months history not required, but at least 90 days
2) demo account vs real discussions are interesting. I would say Demo account is OK but only fully verified credentials on a known and trusted ECN/STP broker AND (CRITICALLY) - NO TP/SL UNDER 10 PIPS or TRADE DURATIONS UNDER 1 MINUTE. This will eliminate arbitrage/HFT nonsense and ensure that on a decent broker, demo and real would be (nearly) the same results.
agreed that including the above new proposed criteria, finding a track record that meets the requirements is pretty much impossible, but that doesnt mean it cant be done, it can be. Remember, they most critical element is monthly gain to max DD ratio (2:1).
The original OP clearly said 100% gain/mo and max 50% DD OR 2:1 gain to max DD ratio (because in that case the followers can scale however they want according to how much DD they are OK with, they can do 100% gain 50% max DD or 20% gain 10% max DD). NO martigrids.
I would also add to the proposed criteria:
1) 6 months history not required, but at least 90 days
2) demo account vs real discussions are interesting. I would say Demo account is OK but only fully verified credentials on a known and trusted ECN/STP broker AND (CRITICALLY) - NO TP/SL UNDER 10 PIPS or TRADE DURATIONS UNDER 1 MINUTE. This will eliminate arbitrage/HFT nonsense and ensure that on a decent broker, demo and real would be (nearly) the same results.
agreed that including the above new proposed criteria, finding a track record that meets the requirements is pretty much impossible, but that doesnt mean it cant be done, it can be. Remember, they most critical element is monthly gain to max DD ratio (2:1).
