Discusión FXOpen - USD

Nice setting, Is this Bless 1 EA ?
Have you test out what is the minimum deposit if to ratio it down and what broker can support it ?
As logic, it can get MC as the gird is 30 pip, and probably need open 11 trade to make it have 300 pip range capture.
Well as all the same, the key for martingale is to have a high ROI per month so it can Hit & Run.

Nope... it is a modified version of Cyborg. But I don't think that guy is selling this EA anymore. And I just included Blessing 5.2 into the equation on one of the currency.

Yes... That was the idea. 30 pip grid and retracting 30 pips in order to be safe. I have tested all the currency pair and so far only AUDUSD and EURGBP does seem to have 30 pip retracement after a big dip and the biggest dip is so far only 250 pips over 10 years before retracting 30 pips.

I think with Martingale it's not about high ROI... I guess a steady ROI with hopes to manage any severe drawdown because the downside is the risk not the upside.

Sorry bud... I think martingale's are ugly.

'Ugly Megan'? 😀

(No offense intended... perhaps in the right hands they might work. Trouble is it seems that 'the right hands' are few and far between...)

I save you the trouble testing. Here the result of 50k playing 12 pairs.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/phanom/rambo3/23061

Very steady ROI and already gain 100% can Harvest the capaital.

But the problem is do we have 50k USD ?? So have you ever try to ratio it down see weather it work with 5k ?

tbuitendyk posted:
    Sorry bud... I think martingale's are ugly.

'Ugly Megan'? 😀

(No offense intended... perhaps in the right hands they might work. Trouble is it seems that 'the right hands' are few and far between...)

I think martingale is Expensive, you need to be rich so only can be richer. So why you think martingale not working ? Any bad experience martingale EA that blow up your account b4 ? Let's share your precious thinking.

Just open up an account that allows 0.01 lot and use $5000.

ForexSeeker posted:
    

tbuitendyk posted:
    Sorry bud... I think martingale's are ugly.

'Ugly Megan'? 😀

(No offense intended... perhaps in the right hands they might work. Trouble is it seems that 'the right hands' are few and far between...)

I think martingale is Expensive, you need to be rich so only can be richer. So why you think martingale not working ? Any bad experience martingale EA that blow up your account b4 ? Let's share your precious thinking.

No, I've never personally gotten toasted by a martingale, but I've seen plenty of examples where other people have.

I don't know how 'precious' my thinking is, but from what I've read about martingales and probability analysis, they seem to be mathematically guaranteed to fail unless you have infinite finances. For example, using a simple coin toss with 50-50 odds, it's surprising how probable a string of bad bets actually is that would be sufficient to wipe-out the account of anyone with less then VERY deep pockets.

Quoting from Wikipedia:

'As an example, consider a bettor with an available fortune, or credit, of 243 (approximately 9 trillion) units, roughly the size of the current US national debt in dollars. With this very large fortune, the player can afford to lose on the first 42 tosses, but a loss on the 43rd cannot be covered. The probability of losing on the first 42 tosses is q^42, which will be a very small number unless tails are nearly certain on each toss. In the fair case where q = 1 / 2, we could expect to wait something on the order of 242 tosses before seeing 42 consecutive tails; tossing coins at the rate of one toss per second, this would require approximately 279,000 years.

This version of the game is likely to be unattractive to both players. The player with the fortune can expect to see a head and gain one unit on average every two tosses, or two seconds, corresponding to an annual income of about 31.6 million units until disaster (42 tails) occurs. This is only a 0.0036 percent return on the fortune at risk. The other player can look forward to steady losses of 31.6 million units per year until hitting an incredibly large jackpot, probably in something like 279,000 years, a period far longer than any currency has yet existed. If q > 1 / 2, this version of the game is also unfavorable to the first player in the sense that it would have negative expected winnings.

The impossibility of winning over the long run, given a limit of the size of bets or a limit in the size of one's bankroll or line of credit, is proven by the optional stopping theorem.'

In coin tossing nobody decides that it's been heads for far too long and starts throwing tails into the equation.

i.e. most currencies will eventually end up over bought or over sold and retrace at some stage. The trick is to ensure you have enough equity to cover what you think might be the worse case scenario based on historical analysis. Something, you again can't do with coin tossing.

stevetrade posted:
    In coin tossing nobody decides that it's been heads for far too long and starts throwing tails into the equation.

i.e. most currencies will eventually end up over bought or over sold and retrace at some stage. The trick is to ensure you have enough equity to cover what you think might be the worse case scenario based on historical analysis. Something, you again can't do with coin tossing.

Good point, but better than even odds systems have the same flaw. Yes, you can go longer than the even odds coin toss example, but ultimately it's the exact same problem just delayed a little.
 

I thought I'd give my 2 cents.

Basically,
Unexpected events happen, all the time.

What is the largest dip before a 30 pips retracement in EURCHF(a far less volatile cross than our dear euro sterling) prior to March 2009? Now if you based your analysis on that, you would be toasted in March 2009 during the CB intervention. You will see devaluation, intervention, war amongst other things. They WILL throw you and your martingale into the toilet and flush you down. You'll never see daylight again. That was how LTCM went down, and they thought there was 1 in a billion chance they could go down.

BTW Nick Leeson, he used martingale. And he also thought the NIKKEI wouldn't move much overnight, which sounded like a rare event to most people, until the next day when an earthquake struck Japan.

First and foremost, always, always protect your ass.

Honest to god...

Yes... I am aware of the probability... and Lovely as my Megan can be for now... it can turn ugly when they can throw fit... (no offences if any females are reading this)

It is for that reason I am only toying this on a nano account. And I don't believe that I will be or am going to put it on a 10k or even 100k account.

It's too expensive. However... I still believe as tbuitendyk rightly put it... It could prove profitable in the right hand. Nope I am not one of them... but I like to think so... :)

I am also in tune with Steve. As that was the assumption I go by when I backtest it. My megan has a grid adjuster. The issue here is that for a particular currency pair... how far it will retrace back.

I had to do a lot of backtesting over 10 years of data and adjusting to see and out of so many currency pair... Only AUDUSD and EURGBP made using megan algorithm. (which is actually Cyborg EA). And recently Blessing where EURCHF manage to trim through the volatility.

Having said that... past performances does not guarantee future profits. 😄 I can only go by or rely on backtesting results and see...

As of this post... My EURGBP is caught in a love triangle. We will see how it ticks.

Hello Casey,

FXopen look like a good choice for micro account, but the limitation is can not more than 3k rite ? Else the leverage will change.

I see that your starter lot for EurGbp is 0.02 USD. How come so ? As to make the grid range more wide, we usually start with 0.01, 0.01, 0.02, 0.04. This will widen the range grid but reduce the gain for safety sake.

The original blue print of bless of is just to go in without any indicator using grid 50 pip and hope that the market is not so wild.
So to withstand the wild pip only choice is to increase capital and is costly. If open 13 level, draw down of 700 pip will have a floating -4096 not included margin deposit yet. So a 700 pip safe play will required 12k micro account.

As I don't have Cyborg EA, no idea how it use indicator go in to reduce draw down. But as usual indicator might not alway work, there still got a chance can go wrong.

I like martingale as it is a mathematic money management that you able to calculate on how many pip draw down you will died.
The key to win in martingale is that it must has high ROI in short term of period so you can safe keep your initial capital.
The hit & run strategy is vital in strategy that did not use compounding like martingale. Same as in scalping technique which I used in Kill Bill 5.

Auto Grid Adjuster did appear in Blees 2, which i do back test always fail, but did work on demo, but did fail also after a while.
So you lovely megan also use the ATR method to recalculated grid pips ? I though you using fix grid pip 30.
Stochastic is common use in HollyGrail EA combine with martingale.

So from your experience, what indicator tactic you think Cyborg use to trim down volatility ?

Wrong calculation - 620 pips safe play will required 17k micro account, retrace at 550 pip will gain 2048.
                           Grid level 13 will open at 600 storm pips. 620 pip will have float -5727.

Hi Casey - been following your blog for a while.

Any idea of how Lovely Megan compares with the original Cyborg EA or the latest version of Blessing?

I'm currently running Blessing 3.7 against a GoMarkets Nano Account against USD-CHF only and ticking over nice profits. Just wondered what the actual entry strategy you use is for Megan.

@daCoops sorry... i have never compared so I am not really sure. The developer of Cyborg have moved away from martingale (i believe) furthermore, the settings I found was base on an idea which I applied and found to be interesting. I did not follow the recommended settings or currency pair from the developer. So I seriously can't say for sure how it defers from the original EA.

As for Blessing... I applied the same idea. However... the forum thread of Blessing is long and with so many variation by the users I really have no way of comparing.

GoMarket has nano account? Did not know that... I can't remember if i have backtested USDCHF for blessing. But I guess I need to try to see.

Megan is just a name I coined for my Martingale experiment... I did some cosmetic adjustment on the codes of Cyborg. Nothing special, I did not change the strategy code.

So wonder no more.... I am just using Cyborg with different settings and Blessing default setting (i think)

Megan Fox is so hot 😇!!

a very consistent return.

Hi Casey - Would you consider selling / sending this EA to me at all? PM me if you are interested and things.

Why would one place $100 000 with a known scam company. They are regulated by nobody and were outed by forexpeacearmy as frauds. Place no more than $2000 if you must but a $100 000? Why didn't you rather place this with Alpari, unless this account is yet another fabrication, which is more likely.