Discusión Genesis System

The US political dance on the debt is done (until next year) and we're back 100% normal on the trades and trade modes (STD now) starting Monday. Let hope we finish the month strong!

Going thru the short list of candidates for a signal provider option right now as we have the demo account sending signals to a live account starting Monday. No, the live account is not public yet, we will be getting a clean account to start in November.

On a side note, it appears from the US Govt. ShutDown that NFP Friday is next week Tuesday. Given the hand-cuffs Congress has given the Fed with more drama in the new year, we expect the NFP outcome to be a bit muted and diluted as the next NFP numbers are out less than two weeks after this release.

All strategies are completed and uploaded.

Current signal copy functions are working smoothly. Experiencing some positive slippage which is good since that will balance out over time as users use this service.

Nice results. :)

Are you still looking to make this available to the public in January next year?

If we don't find and other bugs or lessons learned that can improve the logic and strategy we use to trade, then January (mid-late) looks to be a good launching point

The recent GBPJPY trade info was a bit skewed due to the fact that there was some issue on the demo at roll-over and open price on one of the trades was somehow adjusted.

While we believe there was no issue to the trade, we decided to close it manually when the live real money slave was in profit just to be safe.

When we add the new live account, it will become the master and we will keep the demo running until mid 2014. The live account will probably be with a different broker than ICM as we want to ensure good spreads and performance when using signal copy services.

This Genesis System will not be an EA or a MAM for the masses. MAMs need more history and should be above and beyond what comes from a signal, but work well on lower leverage accounts, not to mention the paperwork that we are not ready to do yet. So don't expect anything MAM until 2016+ (yup, good things take time) It will not be an EA as we will have to spend countless hours protecting the code from the world. Of course, we don't have to have it work on every currency base and broker either...that is why the signal gives you the most flexibility. Another down side to the EA model is the tempation to copy signals. Well, if you are copying a copy onto an even larger account, with a signal the risks of delays and executions are even higher and the big accounts will have to yield to the little guys first and they don't want to do that. Support wise, if there is a problem, it most likely is not with our reference account getting the signal into the network, it is going out into the Internet masses, so we as InfinityPhi don't need to answer support e-mails and we can focus on the next signal from our structure indicator, while the signal provider handles the support.

Congrats to the system and the implementation! I put this on my watch list. Keep up the good work!

Congrats !
Great results, what signal copier service would you use then? simple trader or any other? How would be the subscription fee cost (guessing)

We're testing SimpleTrader now with a live account on the back end as one option.

The fee would be encompasing of all costs to keep it simple. What we decide on...we'll see how things go.

The two services we have been reviewing most recently are simpletrader.net and 4xsolutions.com. There are several others we have looked at, and so far, these two have been the best. Unless something changes, we intend to charge $100/month for the Genesis System trade copy service.

And we finally had our first stoploss. Not entirely unexpected as one was bound to happen eventually. The slippage was pretty nasty on the close though. Got hit for an extra 0.5% loss, but that is just part of it. If a system can't handle the abuse, then it won't survive anyway. So what is the damage.....well, now we are only on track for about a +20% month. Call me crazy if you want, but I just can't seem to bring myself to complain about that.

The main thing is, now we have a stoploss on record, and now everyone can see what it would be like in a normal trading situation if/or when another one does happen. We expect one will eventually come around again, but it may be a while. At least we hope so.

Regardless, now is a perfect time to bring up some figures that you could compile on your own from the backtests. The anticipated average gain per month is around 30%. A standard stoploss is about -9%. That means, in any given normal month, we could have three stoplosses and still have a profitable month. Granted...not massively profitable, but still profitable. This is why having a stoploss is honestly not a big deal. It will likely take slightly over 1 week to recover from it....on average. As always, these figures are based on our only possible reference, which is the past. And that may not hold accurate into the future. It most likely will, but I have to make sure people remain aware that amazing performance cannot be guaranteed, it is just very probable.

There will be more to come!

Second stoploss on record is an intentional early termination. FOMC was not kind, and the broker SL was not far way. Based on the analysis of the structure around the SL, we decided to take an early termination instead of allowing it to hit full SL. We had the opportunity to do so on the previous stoploss, but chose to allow it so people could see a worst case scenario.

Further, we have also found a problem with the time settings in the news system, so there are updates that must be made to the code. So, the system will be offline for a bit. Hopefully we can get it back on by next week.

So, with that said, we end the month with only an 11% gain. 😭 Not the spectacular start we were wanting, but at least everyone interested will be able to see a realistic picture of what could happen in a bad month. Hopefully next month will finally be an average month.

Our coder was a motivated animal last night and got the time issues sorted out so we'll be up and trading on a 'trick-or-treat' day.

Gotta remember, this is still a v1.x product in the making and we want to feel this system can make the right decisions. Anyway, at this point, we're taking the next step to move the concept forward.

Speaking of time, the pool of EAs will start trading around 6-9 GMT depending on the day of the week, and the personality of the pair. Most EAs will go back to sleep if no trades are open on them between 20-21 GMT and on Friday the EA will not take any new trades at 12 GMT.

InfinityPhi, why is it shown 'demo', but you got 180.07USD withdrawl on there

OdieORD posted:
InfinityPhi, why is it shown 'demo', but you got 180.07USD withdrawl on there

That was a glitch from ICM. It really is a demo account.

Yes, it is a demo account, and that was a glitch from ICM that caused it. One of the trades in the set was reset as the end of day rolled over to the following day.

Well, the market never repeats itself, but it sure rhymes...

Earlier USDCAD SL was a big long trade in the making, and maybe there were enough events that happend to pull the pair in a different direction, so blame the market. Well, we're in very similar circumstances with the same EA logic on a different pair...so blame us. SL in teh future or not, we're not happen this slipped thru the design cracks.

In anycase, there seems to be a missing detection method for such setups and when checking other pairs with the same EA logic, we see some SLs in the backtests before any news filters are added that tells us we need to work a little harder on the open and closing logic vs. depending that it is news related. We will also 'QA' the the EAs on other brokers available tick history vs. TDS 99% tick data as this EA is a bit sensitive to price and price movements. Spread wise, we run the following for the 7 1/2 yr+ backtests:

AUDUSD 2.5 pips, EURGBP 3.0 pips, EURUSD, 2.0 pips, GBPUSD 2.5 pips, GBPJPY 4.5 pips, NZDUSD 5.0 pips, USDCAD 3.0 pips, USDCHF 2.4 pips, and USDJPY 2.4 pips.

Bottom line is that this signal copy service is looking more like a March / April release vs. the original hopes for January. Not going to rush it, but we're going to use the extra time to ensure we got anything else obvious on both EA logic sets working optimally...then layer in the news. Of course, holidays and end of year are coming. Updated backtest will be added to the strategy sections as things are tweaked.

Demo will continue as is so that we can learn and validate things on the back end. Live account for public viewing will start in Jan. Live account with be with FXPrimus for three reasons: realistic spreads, ECN with 'NO requotes and NO slippage during normal market volatility' and proximity to the VPS and Signal service providers that should provide the fastest execution time to get the signal in and out to end users, which is probably the most important element.

Yeah, seen that one coming. Anyway, made some updates and initial tests look good. Still need detailed checks with the REV strategy. Time will tell, lets see what happens this week. CONT strategy still needs a good check as that GBPUSD pattern hit, but two weeks ago GBPJPY was similar and was the one we closed early as the ICM Demo roll over threw the gains for a curve.

Unfortunately, these are not EAs you just get to hit the optimize on the backtester and go with the safe and profitable results.

Crossing our fingers we can get all the tuning done by end of year.

Well, major improvements on the REVersal logic set have been made this week. In case you are wondering which trades are which, just look at the comments for the REV in them.

Next week, we'll start looing for solutions for the CONT so that we don't have a repeat of the GBPUSD, if we find a pattern on other pairs. Granted, this system will have SLs, but more than once a month is a bit much.

Some of the delays in USD information lingering from the shutdown are in this week. So between now and the end of the week I expect the EAs pick up some trades along the way.

There are some unique rules that we have around holidays, so Nov 11th may not all all 16 pairs trading, but other than that the month looks straight forward.

So 4 SLs and what did we learn:

-USDCAD REV and USDCHF REV had very similar setups where a big movement happened many bars back, traded in a ranged before trying to open a trade into that big bar movement zone, that ended up going the other way. Already added the logic and the back tests results were an improvement including an increase of the TP that the recent USDJPY trade just devoured :8
-NZDUSD CONT- had two sets that intertwind its trades. Doing more reasearch and while this doesn't happen often it had happened before on other pairs, so we have some new logic to help with looks at the 'basket' of trades within the EA. Like the other pairs, it has happend before central bank announcements so it can be predicted and enabled when the same situation happens. If this case a basket is a common direction, so having sells or buys, but not the mix of both.
-GBPUSD CONT - before the 2nd trade opened there was a big movement of the pair that if should have tiggered a 2nd trade but acutally moved up and out of the threshold...working on new logic for that and potential better setup determination to take the trade in the opposite direction. There are some other things that I need to check and we might see improvements overall too.

Again, this EA is not the active trader on the BT w/o news filters so with news filters there can and will be room for improvement as the forward test goes on.

My goal is to get it down to an SL or less a month as this mix will just trade something M-Thur.