Tom'sEa WPFX LIVE (de TomsEaWPFXlive)
El usuario ha borrado este sistema.
Discusión Tom'sEa WPFX LIVE
Jul 05, 2013 at 07:45
Jul 17, 2013 at 19:29
Judging from the close times, it is trading in Baskets, so this is a grid/martingale -
Proving that a properly coded one (such as Tom's EA) really does make money-
IF you are not greedy and the trade sizes are tiny, the trade numbers are plentiful
and spread out across multiple pairs (I use from 15 to all 28 major/minors). By
tweaking and monitoring to keep the growth between 5 to 15% per month you
can actually make a substantial income in just a few years...give it time, be patient!
-Drew
====================================================
Proving that a properly coded one (such as Tom's EA) really does make money-
IF you are not greedy and the trade sizes are tiny, the trade numbers are plentiful
and spread out across multiple pairs (I use from 15 to all 28 major/minors). By
tweaking and monitoring to keep the growth between 5 to 15% per month you
can actually make a substantial income in just a few years...give it time, be patient!
-Drew
====================================================
Waant aal, lose aal, man...
Jul 18, 2013 at 06:15
ForexCuredotcom posted:
Judging from the close times, it is trading in Baskets, so this is a grid/martingale -
Proving that a properly coded one (such as Tom's EA) really does make money-
IF you are not greedy and the trade sizes are tiny, the trade numbers are plentiful
and spread out across multiple pairs (I use from 15 to all 28 major/minors). By
tweaking and monitoring to keep the growth between 5 to 15% per month you
can actually make a substantial income in just a few years...give it time, be patient!
-Drew
====================================================
I tend to agree on lower risk on more pairs. It just makes more sense statistically. Also the Achille's heel of such a system is that every once in a while market events on a pair will push it beyond its design envelope into large drawdowns and stop-losses. With enought dept (account size versus risk) one will get through, but not without looses. Lower risk on pairs will make such events less dramatic (ask me how I know :-/)
Jul 20, 2013 at 20:49
I would like to help any and all traders that have been burned by Tom's EA.
You know that the lot-size multipliers for losing trades progresses like this:
1,1,1,3,6,9,12,15,21,27,33,39,45,55,65,75,85,95,120,140,...
What I have discovered and proven to myself is that the first 3 1X multipliers
form about 88% of all trades and, once you do research in Excel, over time
they balance to zero or a small loss, but at the same cause the highest risk of
blowing out your account! So, one might consider them as 'noise'.
I've discovered this doing many demo account tests for the last 2 years. At the
beginning of my research, things always started off quite profitable, but eventually
a strong (deliberate manipulation of a currency) trend blew the account. It was
not until I started trading a $1M demo account balance against mini-lots (0.1 lot),
that I was able to accumulate thousands of trades and survive major currency
trends and consistently grow my Equity.
I needed to, and I think did, prove to myself that Tom's EA stays profitable.
But, the lot sizes have to be tiny tiny compared to account balance. This is so,
when another trend happens, one of those account multipliers above will eventually
'catch' a T/P level. Personally, I have used a $3,000 account with 0.01 lot size,
AS MY 3X trade size.
You can't just delete the 1X orders though, as the code needs this intelligence about
the market to build the 3X and larger trades. The draw down on these larger lot-size
trades is less than the aggregate, and progressively less with 6X and larger, etc.
The technique I use to filter out the smaller trade orders will have to remain as
homework for yourselves, but it is not hard to figure out....
I hope this helps...
-Drew
=================================================
You know that the lot-size multipliers for losing trades progresses like this:
1,1,1,3,6,9,12,15,21,27,33,39,45,55,65,75,85,95,120,140,...
What I have discovered and proven to myself is that the first 3 1X multipliers
form about 88% of all trades and, once you do research in Excel, over time
they balance to zero or a small loss, but at the same cause the highest risk of
blowing out your account! So, one might consider them as 'noise'.
I've discovered this doing many demo account tests for the last 2 years. At the
beginning of my research, things always started off quite profitable, but eventually
a strong (deliberate manipulation of a currency) trend blew the account. It was
not until I started trading a $1M demo account balance against mini-lots (0.1 lot),
that I was able to accumulate thousands of trades and survive major currency
trends and consistently grow my Equity.
I needed to, and I think did, prove to myself that Tom's EA stays profitable.
But, the lot sizes have to be tiny tiny compared to account balance. This is so,
when another trend happens, one of those account multipliers above will eventually
'catch' a T/P level. Personally, I have used a $3,000 account with 0.01 lot size,
AS MY 3X trade size.
You can't just delete the 1X orders though, as the code needs this intelligence about
the market to build the 3X and larger trades. The draw down on these larger lot-size
trades is less than the aggregate, and progressively less with 6X and larger, etc.
The technique I use to filter out the smaller trade orders will have to remain as
homework for yourselves, but it is not hard to figure out....
I hope this helps...
-Drew
=================================================
Waant aal, lose aal, man...
Jul 22, 2013 at 14:07
ForexCuredotcom posted:
The technique I use to filter out the smaller trade orders will have to remain as
homework for yourselves, but it is not hard to figure out....
Hi Drew
Interesting information.
I don't know how the programming works, but, if you don't take the 1X trades then I would have assumed that it won't take a 3X trade, ie; If you ran it with 'Auto trading' turned off or required confirmation then only took a non-1X trade then would not the next instance it finds be a 1X as it doesn't have to try and compensate for the current loss as it never toook the initial losing trade?
Jul 22, 2013 at 14:41
If I wanted to do that I'd use MT4i's trade copier EAs - have one copy of MT4 running TOMS EA on a demo account taking all trades and on another chart running the MT4i sender EA, and have that sending the trades to another copy of MT4 with a live account running just the MT4i receiver EA set to ignore anything with a lot size less than 2 ...... that worked oops I mean would work ;-)
Jul 23, 2013 at 07:40
I disagree with profitable 1X orders. Set up a large demo with 1 million $ and let it
run for 3 months or more. Save your info as a Detailed Report and transfer to Excel.
You can analyze just the 1X orders and see that you made alot of $$ for the Broker, not you.
You can also separate all activity of 3X+ size orders, 6X+, 9X+ etc. and see for
yourself. (I attached such spreadsheet with 2800 trades, check it out.) It's from this
experiment: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexCuredotcom/1m-sender/545625
To prevent mishap of strong trend, I just trade tiny order sizes in comparison
to the account equity. Kicking out all 1X (and even 3X orders to be extra cautious)
will greatly improve your survivability of a strong trend. Last test, I had to ride out
AUD/USD major trend for 2 MONTHS! And you can only survive that with a
large reserve balance, tiny orders and no 1X (and even 3X orders).
You can also trade fewer currency pairs, so if JPY goes rogue again, there will not
be so many pairs repeating the bad situation. (eg: the experiment noted above has
15 pairs, not my normal 28)
Hope that helps....
-Drew
=====================================================
run for 3 months or more. Save your info as a Detailed Report and transfer to Excel.
You can analyze just the 1X orders and see that you made alot of $$ for the Broker, not you.
You can also separate all activity of 3X+ size orders, 6X+, 9X+ etc. and see for
yourself. (I attached such spreadsheet with 2800 trades, check it out.) It's from this
experiment: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexCuredotcom/1m-sender/545625
To prevent mishap of strong trend, I just trade tiny order sizes in comparison
to the account equity. Kicking out all 1X (and even 3X orders to be extra cautious)
will greatly improve your survivability of a strong trend. Last test, I had to ride out
AUD/USD major trend for 2 MONTHS! And you can only survive that with a
large reserve balance, tiny orders and no 1X (and even 3X orders).
You can also trade fewer currency pairs, so if JPY goes rogue again, there will not
be so many pairs repeating the bad situation. (eg: the experiment noted above has
15 pairs, not my normal 28)
Hope that helps....
-Drew
=====================================================
Archivos adjuntos:
Waant aal, lose aal, man...
Jul 23, 2013 at 09:39
MT4i Copier is very reliable yes - it does EXACTLY what you have told it to do, regardless of whether this is what you actually wanted. Like any precision tool it has a lot of options and there are a number that you have to get right, it's absolutely not something you can just download and install and it will work the way you expected out of the box. It will work out of the box certainly, but not the way you expected.
Drew - 'trade all orders at market' is your friend. If the master trades then the slave WILL trade. You will almost certainly not get the full amount but you'll get enough of it to satisfy.
Drew - 'trade all orders at market' is your friend. If the master trades then the slave WILL trade. You will almost certainly not get the full amount but you'll get enough of it to satisfy.
Jul 24, 2013 at 06:26
chairman posted:
Drew - 'trade all orders at market' is your friend. If the master trades then the slave WILL trade. You will almost certainly not get the full amount but you'll get enough of it to satisfy.
Hey chairman, thanks for that tip, ans especially for your input into this thread!
-d
=====================================================
Waant aal, lose aal, man...
Miembro desde Oct 05, 2011
posts 60
Jul 25, 2013 at 15:24
In an attempt to stop the rumor mill before it starts I want to make a quick post to clarify some things. I am not going to stop trading with Toms EA. I am not just moving on to the next project. Tom's EA has proven quite effective on this account making an excess of 135%. I will be opening a new account with a substantially larger start up deposit and will be targeting a lower return. I am looking to make around 2.5 to 3% a month and want to keep the draw down below 20%. Once the new account is funded etc. I will set up the new myfxbook account and post the link to this thread so you can continue to monitor it. I will be using very low settings ie closer to 5rl or 8 rl on just two, maybe 3 currencies at the most. The last two years of live data have been very revealing. For example if you do a custom analysis and just look at the EURUSD GBP/USD and CAD/USD you will see an over 435% return with less than a 20% draw down in less than 2 years. That's pretty darn good for any kind of trading let alone auto trading.
Miembro desde May 08, 2012
posts 321
Jul 25, 2013 at 18:50
This is the usual disingenuousness of Dustin Pass. The only one that made 135% are the ones that started at the same time. Anyone who started 6 months up to now, after him, is either even or underwater, some substantively underwater.
I guess we'll see if rotating into what worked for the past two years will work in the next two years. Historically that isn't the case. Maybe the lower risk setting will keep the draw down closer to 60% instead of 100%.
I guess we'll see if rotating into what worked for the past two years will work in the next two years. Historically that isn't the case. Maybe the lower risk setting will keep the draw down closer to 60% instead of 100%.
War is when your government tells you who the enemy is. Revolution is when you figure out, for yourself, who the enemy is.
Jul 25, 2013 at 18:52
Dustin, as you have been following recent posts, I would like to suggest finding a way for Tom's EA to 'kick-out' (but still keep track of internally somehow) all the 1X trades. I have proven to myself over the last 2 years with many many demos, they lead to alot of 'noise' and profits for brokers, but worse, are the majority cause of drawdown when a strong trend occurs. Over time they just balance to near Zero or even a small loss - so useless and dangerous in that sense, other than to help form the 3X and larger higher-probability trades.
Just saying,... that's what I am doing via a trade copier to a live account. It works, but it's not elegant!
-Drew
==================================================================
PS., anyone who is/knows a competent programmer, I am all EARS and would seriously consider a project
such as described above. Private mail me please...
Just saying,... that's what I am doing via a trade copier to a live account. It works, but it's not elegant!
-Drew
==================================================================
PS., anyone who is/knows a competent programmer, I am all EARS and would seriously consider a project
such as described above. Private mail me please...
Waant aal, lose aal, man...
Jul 25, 2013 at 18:54
I have been watching this EA since it was released. While I am not fond of martingale-style money management, I am forced to admit that this is one of the only EAs of this type that I have watched survive this long. What it boils down to, the EA is profitable. Not on an epic scale, but it is profitable.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Jul 26, 2013 at 08:52
Again, you really have to keep the orders tiny compared to the equity.
Personally I don't like that 40% close-all in the latest TEA. So I use an
earlier version which won't close all trades when the equity drops by 40%.
Actually, I prefer to use a separate EA called Equity Guard v1.1. I think
I got it free from the MQL4 forums. It's attached. It will close all orders
when any equity high or low or % drawdown you define, is reached.
Thus, another thing we can do is rather than have the program close all
orders when there's an Unacceptable drawdown, how about close all
orders when there's an Acceptable drawUP? (I just made that up ;)
If you've traded with TEA for awhile, you'll see things like a large negative
profit suddenly appear in the last 4 hours of the trading week. But, early
in the new week, things correct themselves, even for large gains.
You can set Equity Guard to close everything automatically when a
user-definable equity level is reached - Surprising how often it triggers
while I am not there, or sleeping.
So, you see this would be a way to purge out accumulating too many
open orders (over-trading), and thus avoiding the climb to scary 21X
and larger orders.
So crane, that's my contribution for the now.
Time for sleep.....
-Drew
==============================================
Personally I don't like that 40% close-all in the latest TEA. So I use an
earlier version which won't close all trades when the equity drops by 40%.
Actually, I prefer to use a separate EA called Equity Guard v1.1. I think
I got it free from the MQL4 forums. It's attached. It will close all orders
when any equity high or low or % drawdown you define, is reached.
Thus, another thing we can do is rather than have the program close all
orders when there's an Unacceptable drawdown, how about close all
orders when there's an Acceptable drawUP? (I just made that up ;)
If you've traded with TEA for awhile, you'll see things like a large negative
profit suddenly appear in the last 4 hours of the trading week. But, early
in the new week, things correct themselves, even for large gains.
You can set Equity Guard to close everything automatically when a
user-definable equity level is reached - Surprising how often it triggers
while I am not there, or sleeping.
So, you see this would be a way to purge out accumulating too many
open orders (over-trading), and thus avoiding the climb to scary 21X
and larger orders.
So crane, that's my contribution for the now.
Time for sleep.....
-Drew
==============================================
Archivos adjuntos:
Waant aal, lose aal, man...
Jul 26, 2013 at 17:17
Some weekend reading (especially for disbelievers and the disillusioned):
https://www.winnersedgetrading.com/martingale/
-d
==============================================
https://www.winnersedgetrading.com/martingale/
-d
==============================================
Waant aal, lose aal, man...
