EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD

US CPI report may show the next direction of EURUSD; UK employment data may take GBPUSD down; Is Australia labour report strong enough to take AUDUSD out of trading range?
XM Group | 419 hari yang lalu

US CPI data --> EURUSD 

During the previous week's meeting, the Federal Reserve displayed a less aggressive stance than anticipated, as Chair Powell explicitly stated that there would be no increases in interest rates and suggested that they are still inclined towards reducing rates. Traders will focus on the US CPI data for April, which will be released on Wednesday. Based on the S&P Global PMIs, output prices had a robust but slower growth rate in April compared to March. 

EURUSD is flirting with the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as well as with the medium-term descending trend line. If the price successfully surpasses the aforementioned levels, then it may challenge the immediate 1.0814 resistance level ahead of the 1.0880 bar. Even higher, the pair may hit the 1.0940 hurdle. Alternatively, a pullback may drive the market down to the 20-day SMA at 1.0770 before falling to 1.0647. The technical oscillators are indicating a potential upside retracement. 

UK labour report --> GBPUSD 

On Tuesday, the UK will publish employment data for March with the unemployment data forecast to rise at 4.3% from 4.2% previously. Investors are likely to closely monitor wage growth to determine if it has continued to decline. This might potentially lead to a slowdown in inflation, as forecast by the Bank. Therefore, if wages slow down, the value of the pound may continue to decrease due to concerns among traders about the possibility of a June interest rate drop by the Bank of England.

In the chart, GBPUSD is battling with the 200-day SMA around the 1.2540 level and remains beneath the short-term downtrend line. A decline below the 1.2465 obstacle could open the way for the bears to test the five-month low of 1.23000. An aggressive fall below the latter level could endorse the short-term bearish structure, meeting the 1.2186 level. However, as the technical oscillators are showing some signs for an upside recovery, the first resistance could come from the near-term downtrend line and the 50-day SMA at 1.2590. 

Australian employment report --> AUDUSD

Following the RBA's decision to maintain a neutral posture, Australian traders will shift their focus to Australia's employment report on Thursday, which is expected to tick up to 3.9% versus 3.8% previously. Despite not ruling anything in or out, the Bank emphasized that a potential increase in wages and a significant recovery in employment could increase the likelihood of a rate hike in September. 

AUDUSD has been developing within a trading range of 0.6390 – 0.6635 but is standing well above the short-term SMAs. Immediate resistance is coming from 0.6635 and the 0.6665 high. A climb beyond these lines would change the outlook to a more bullish one, testing the 0.6730 barrier. On the other hand, a dive below the 0.6555 support and the SMAs could switch the move south, challenging 0.6465. MACD and RSI are showing some weak sings. 

Peraturan: CySEC (Cyprus), FSC (Belize), DFSA (UAE), FSCA (South Africa)
read more
Gold Struggles for Direction as Risk Mood Sours | 7th July, 2025

Gold Struggles for Direction as Risk Mood Sours | 7th July, 2025

On July 7, gold slips below $3,350 as the USD strengthens and traders take profit amid tariff-related jitters. Silver lingers under $37. EUR/USD and NZD/USD retreat on weak sentiment, while USD/CAD rises above 1.3900 as oil weakens. Markets brace for key data including US CPI and Eurozone retail sales, with Fed speeches also in focus.
Moneta Markets | 1j 19min yang lalu
ATFX Market Outlook 7th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 7th July 2025

U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies after President Trump’s landmark tax cut bill was passed, amid mounting pressure on countries to strike trade deals with Washington. As markets brace for the July 9 tariff deadline—targeting countries like Japan that have yet to reach agreements—the dollar index slipped 0.1% to 96.92.
ATFX | 3j 57min yang lalu
ATFX Market Outlook 4th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 4th July 2025

The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, beating expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Traders are now betting that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before September. Meanwhile, the House narrowly passed Trump's major fiscal bill by a vote of 218 to 214. U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday, hitting fresh record highs.
ATFX | 3 hari yang lalu
Rate Shifts Steer FX Markets as Silver Holds Strong

Rate Shifts Steer FX Markets as Silver Holds Strong

On July 3, silver stays firm above $35.40 as Fed cut bets persist. EUR/USD holds near 1.1800, while GBP/USD lingers near 1.3585 ahead of UK jobs data. JPY strengthens after BoJ signals a hawkish pause. AUD/USD slips on weak trade surplus. Focus turns to US NFP and ISM data for market direction before the US holiday break.
Moneta Markets | 3 hari yang lalu
ATFX Market Outlook 3rd July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 3rd July 2025

Wednesday’s ADP report showed a surprise decline of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, marking the first contraction since March 2023 as economic uncertainty weighed on hiring. U.S. equities surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs, driven by gains in tech stocks and relief following the U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement, which eased concerns over prolonged trade tensions
ATFX | 4 hari yang lalu
GBP/USD at the top of a bullish channel

GBP/USD at the top of a bullish channel

GBP/USD loses momentum near three-year high, tests the channel’s upper band. Short-term bias remains bullish, but overbought conditions are evident. Bullish outlook remains intact above 1.3450.
XM Group | 4 hari yang lalu
Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

On July 2, the USD stabilizes as Fed rate cut bets build. GBP/USD nears 1.3750 highs, NZD/USD extends above 0.6120, and AUD/USD holds near 0.6820 despite soft retail sales. USD/JPY recovers to 146.20, while silver dips below $36. Markets await US labor data and Fed remarks for direction ahead of July 4.
Moneta Markets | 5 hari yang lalu