Emas lwn Dolar AS H1 Live Forex Chart
XAUUSD,H1 Carta oleh cwann
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cwann
Oct 20 at 12:48
Analysis
TREND STRUCTURE
Price has touched the hourly trendline 3 times across the past 2 weeks, with the 1st touch point being the 1st of the 4hr Trend line
Each of the last 2 legs of this current up-trend has lasted approximately 12 days and 8 hours. The 3rd leg is nearing the same duration, suggesting only 24 more hours of upward pressure before resistance forms.
Long term outlook: Daily trend line has been respected on 3 separate occasions in 3 separate months, price likely to reach $2861.05 resistance on the Daily time frame, after price broke the $2466.00 resistance of the range in August 2024 which will conclude the 2nd Leg of the upwards trend
KEY LEVELS
Resistance
Price is approaching $2725, a key psychological level.
Alternatively, the golden pocket Fibonacci extension lies between $2725.35 and $2730.92, with another psychological level at $2750.
Support
Hourly Support: $2713.01
If price breaks below $2713.01 and retests from $2702, it could retrace to form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern, with a potential move down to the neckline at $2685.82 (4-hour support).
RSI
Bearish RSI divergence indicates weakening momentum despite the upward trend.
Both the 4hr and Daily are > 70 however this could remain and can continue to go higher over the course of the week
VOLUME
Heavy bullish volume seen between $2706 and $2713 and at $2650.
Bulls are likely to maintain control unless heavy selling volume emerges.
If price breaks below the $2700 zone, there could be a free fall of 300 points to $2697 as there is little volume in this area, the momentum of the free fall could cause price to test the 4-hour support
EMA
> 1hr = 200 EMA - $2666.54, 100 EMA $2682.12, 50 EMA - $2696.96, 13 EMA - $2713.72, 5 EMA - $2717.86
> 4hr = 200 EMA - $2610.90, 50 EMA - $2573.74, 50 EMA - $2667.34, 10 EMA - $2701.24
> Daily = 200 EMA - $2362.78, 50 EMA - $2573.74, 50 EMA - $2573.74, 7 EMA - $2663.23
PATTERNS
Rising Wedge: A bearish reversal pattern identified on the 1-hour chart.
Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern: If the price breaks below $2713.01 and retests from $2702, it could form the right shoulder, ideal for a sell setup.
CONCLUSION
The outlook for gold is bullish, with potential bearish retracement catalysts from upcoming PMI data. The technical picture reflects an uptrend nearing exhaustion, as the current leg aligns with the duration of previous upward moves.
Key psychological levels, particularly around $2725 to $2730.92, will play a crucial role in determining short-term direction. Heavy bullish volume indicates buyers are still in control, but bearish RSI divergence and reversal patterns such as the rising wedge and potential head-and-shoulders pattern signal the possibility of a pullback. The EMA’s site at 100 EMA $2682.12, 50 EMA - $2696.96 which both levels have corresponding confluences in these areas. The 50 EMA matching up with the Previous 1-hour Resistance & Break of Structure, the 100 EMA matching up with the 4-hour Support.
Traders should be cautious if price breaks below $2700.00, as it could trigger a move toward the neckline at $2685.82. Conversely, a continuation above $2730.00 would reinforce the uptrend, targeting $2750.00 and $2861.05 in the longer term.
The trade plan provides a balanced approach, with both buy and sell setups prepared to adapt to evolving market conditions. Key levels and patterns will guide decisions, with close monitoring of volume and price action critical for confirming entries. Flexibility will be essential, as economic data may shift sentiment throughout the week.
TREND STRUCTURE
Price has touched the hourly trendline 3 times across the past 2 weeks, with the 1st touch point being the 1st of the 4hr Trend line
Each of the last 2 legs of this current up-trend has lasted approximately 12 days and 8 hours. The 3rd leg is nearing the same duration, suggesting only 24 more hours of upward pressure before resistance forms.
Long term outlook: Daily trend line has been respected on 3 separate occasions in 3 separate months, price likely to reach $2861.05 resistance on the Daily time frame, after price broke the $2466.00 resistance of the range in August 2024 which will conclude the 2nd Leg of the upwards trend
KEY LEVELS
Resistance
Price is approaching $2725, a key psychological level.
Alternatively, the golden pocket Fibonacci extension lies between $2725.35 and $2730.92, with another psychological level at $2750.
Support
Hourly Support: $2713.01
If price breaks below $2713.01 and retests from $2702, it could retrace to form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern, with a potential move down to the neckline at $2685.82 (4-hour support).
RSI
Bearish RSI divergence indicates weakening momentum despite the upward trend.
Both the 4hr and Daily are > 70 however this could remain and can continue to go higher over the course of the week
VOLUME
Heavy bullish volume seen between $2706 and $2713 and at $2650.
Bulls are likely to maintain control unless heavy selling volume emerges.
If price breaks below the $2700 zone, there could be a free fall of 300 points to $2697 as there is little volume in this area, the momentum of the free fall could cause price to test the 4-hour support
EMA
> 1hr = 200 EMA - $2666.54, 100 EMA $2682.12, 50 EMA - $2696.96, 13 EMA - $2713.72, 5 EMA - $2717.86
> 4hr = 200 EMA - $2610.90, 50 EMA - $2573.74, 50 EMA - $2667.34, 10 EMA - $2701.24
> Daily = 200 EMA - $2362.78, 50 EMA - $2573.74, 50 EMA - $2573.74, 7 EMA - $2663.23
PATTERNS
Rising Wedge: A bearish reversal pattern identified on the 1-hour chart.
Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern: If the price breaks below $2713.01 and retests from $2702, it could form the right shoulder, ideal for a sell setup.
CONCLUSION
The outlook for gold is bullish, with potential bearish retracement catalysts from upcoming PMI data. The technical picture reflects an uptrend nearing exhaustion, as the current leg aligns with the duration of previous upward moves.
Key psychological levels, particularly around $2725 to $2730.92, will play a crucial role in determining short-term direction. Heavy bullish volume indicates buyers are still in control, but bearish RSI divergence and reversal patterns such as the rising wedge and potential head-and-shoulders pattern signal the possibility of a pullback. The EMA’s site at 100 EMA $2682.12, 50 EMA - $2696.96 which both levels have corresponding confluences in these areas. The 50 EMA matching up with the Previous 1-hour Resistance & Break of Structure, the 100 EMA matching up with the 4-hour Support.
Traders should be cautious if price breaks below $2700.00, as it could trigger a move toward the neckline at $2685.82. Conversely, a continuation above $2730.00 would reinforce the uptrend, targeting $2750.00 and $2861.05 in the longer term.
The trade plan provides a balanced approach, with both buy and sell setups prepared to adapt to evolving market conditions. Key levels and patterns will guide decisions, with close monitoring of volume and price action critical for confirming entries. Flexibility will be essential, as economic data may shift sentiment throughout the week.
cwann
Oct 20 at 12:47
Trade Plan
📉 Sell Entry 1: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
🔄 $2719.06 – Sell Stop Entry if initial level is missed
🎯 TP 1: $2713 – 1-hour Support
🎯 TP 2: $2702 – Key Psychological Level
🎯 TP 3: $2696.52 – Previous 1-hour Resistance & Break of Structure
🎯 TP 4: $2689.44 – Previous 1-hour Support
🎯 TP 5: $2685.82 – 4-hour Support
🔒 SL 1: $2750 – Psychological Level
📈 Buy Entry 1: $2685.82 - $2689.44
🔄 $2695.00 – Buy Stop Entry if initial target is missed
🎯 TP 1: $2702 – Key Psychological Level
🎯 TP 2: $2713 – 1-hour Support
🎯 TP 3: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
🎯 TP 4: $2750 – Psychological Level
🔒 SL : $2678.32
📈 Buy Entry 2: $2701.00 -$2706.00
🔄 $2710.00 – Buy Stop Entry if initial target is missed
🎯 TP 1: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
🎯 TP 2: $2750 – Psychological Level
🔒 SL 1: $2693.5
As always, our trades are guided by price action. While we can plan in advance, we adapt daily to the market, using key signals and indicators to inform our trading decisions.
📉 Sell Entry 1: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
🔄 $2719.06 – Sell Stop Entry if initial level is missed
🎯 TP 1: $2713 – 1-hour Support
🎯 TP 2: $2702 – Key Psychological Level
🎯 TP 3: $2696.52 – Previous 1-hour Resistance & Break of Structure
🎯 TP 4: $2689.44 – Previous 1-hour Support
🎯 TP 5: $2685.82 – 4-hour Support
🔒 SL 1: $2750 – Psychological Level
📈 Buy Entry 1: $2685.82 - $2689.44
🔄 $2695.00 – Buy Stop Entry if initial target is missed
🎯 TP 1: $2702 – Key Psychological Level
🎯 TP 2: $2713 – 1-hour Support
🎯 TP 3: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
🎯 TP 4: $2750 – Psychological Level
🔒 SL : $2678.32
📈 Buy Entry 2: $2701.00 -$2706.00
🔄 $2710.00 – Buy Stop Entry if initial target is missed
🎯 TP 1: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
🎯 TP 2: $2750 – Psychological Level
🔒 SL 1: $2693.5
As always, our trades are guided by price action. While we can plan in advance, we adapt daily to the market, using key signals and indicators to inform our trading decisions.
