Million Dollar Pips (による milliondpips)
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Million Dollar Pips 討論
Nov 12, 2009からメンバー
19 投稿
Sep 21, 2011 at 22:37
Hi All,
It is true that MDP is losing its effectiveness. Even if the big boys are not out to get us there is a few things I would like to highlight:
- too many MDP copies all fighting for the same liquidity. although there are trillions of dollars traded in the fx in a day, mdp trades last only for seconds/ minutes. not sure if there is enough liquidity to go around
- too many MDP copies all trying to get their orders through within seconds, some would surely get bad fill, assuming your brokers have no issue handling the spike in order numbers
i asked an ECN broker once if they havr issue with Scalping bot, they said no but they have issue if the bot execute multiple trades within seconds, creating risk on their server, and worse still if the trade dont get into their liquidity providers' book. you'd think its not poasible that trade did not get across to their provider in such an advance electronic era. but imagine 100s of trades all within 2 seconds, some trade is bound to be missed out and not reconciled with the provider
the party may or may not be near the end, but the profitability has taken a plunge and each trader will have various results from huge losses to some level of profit but not like the good days ever.
if u r not already running mdp with some degree of sucess then u r definitely too late for t party. save your heartache n money and start looking for other strategy
It is true that MDP is losing its effectiveness. Even if the big boys are not out to get us there is a few things I would like to highlight:
- too many MDP copies all fighting for the same liquidity. although there are trillions of dollars traded in the fx in a day, mdp trades last only for seconds/ minutes. not sure if there is enough liquidity to go around
- too many MDP copies all trying to get their orders through within seconds, some would surely get bad fill, assuming your brokers have no issue handling the spike in order numbers
i asked an ECN broker once if they havr issue with Scalping bot, they said no but they have issue if the bot execute multiple trades within seconds, creating risk on their server, and worse still if the trade dont get into their liquidity providers' book. you'd think its not poasible that trade did not get across to their provider in such an advance electronic era. but imagine 100s of trades all within 2 seconds, some trade is bound to be missed out and not reconciled with the provider
the party may or may not be near the end, but the profitability has taken a plunge and each trader will have various results from huge losses to some level of profit but not like the good days ever.
if u r not already running mdp with some degree of sucess then u r definitely too late for t party. save your heartache n money and start looking for other strategy
Dec 15, 2010からメンバー
795 投稿
Sep 22, 2011 at 00:48
Id think that if more than a few hundred copys of MDP were sold, there would be lots more MDP people online searching and chatting.. Lots more... the few of us here and the few other forums should ( should) indicate a fair ratio of those that bought it and those on the forum. Theres no more of a larger volume here now chatting about MDP than 2 months back. The chat is more excited during larger wins and losses, but its not a larger population. I would guess than a portion of those 3 months back have ended thier trading with the bot than new people who might buy. Our MDP chat has not increased significantly to signifiy a 1000 plus sales of MDP per week much less per month. So, I think that the markets not yet saturated yet. Its possible, but I think that some of our population has dropped out due to the tough scalping. The market does do this incredible up and down... its Forex, world currency. Just my thoughts..
Rambling...
Garry
Rambling...
Garry
Click on my Name to see My Live Charts and Bio.
Sep 22, 2011 at 01:01
we can't a decision based on a single or few days. a lot of EA suffers bad days. just run a back test with MDP and you'll find some bad trends.
maybe tomorrow we'll win 200pips... :)
I don't know how many active version of MDP runs in the world. for sure this impact us. and if there is market maker which do opposite trades, this break the trend the EA try to catch.
for the moment I'm just satisfied, but I starts with MDP there is 2 weeks only.
maybe tomorrow we'll win 200pips... :)
I don't know how many active version of MDP runs in the world. for sure this impact us. and if there is market maker which do opposite trades, this break the trend the EA try to catch.
for the moment I'm just satisfied, but I starts with MDP there is 2 weeks only.
Sep 22, 2011 at 01:41
Professor53 posted:
Id think that if more than a few hundred copys of MDP were sold, there would be lots more MDP people online searching and chatting.. Lots more... the few of us here and the few other forums should ( should) indicate a fair ratio of those that bought it and those on the forum. Theres no more of a larger volume here now chatting about MDP than 2 months back. The chat is more excited during larger wins and losses, but its not a larger population. I would guess than a portion of those 3 months back have ended thier trading with the bot than new people who might buy. Our MDP chat has not increased significantly to signifiy a 1000 plus sales of MDP per week much less per month. So, I think that the markets not yet saturated yet. Its possible, but I think that some of our population has dropped out due to the tough scalping. The market does do this incredible up and down... its Forex, world currency. Just my thoughts..
Rambling...
Garry
One thing you gotta keep in mind is 90% of the mdp users will never post a word on a forum anywhere ever, especially if they have found a way to make it profitable.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Nov 12, 2009からメンバー
19 投稿
Sep 22, 2011 at 04:34
fughe posted:
Professor53 posted:
Id think that if more than a few hundred copys of MDP were sold, there would be lots more MDP people online searching and chatting.. Lots more... the few of us here and the few other forums should ( should) indicate a fair ratio of those that bought it and those on the forum. Theres no more of a larger volume here now chatting about MDP than 2 months back. The chat is more excited during larger wins and losses, but its not a larger population. I would guess than a portion of those 3 months back have ended thier trading with the bot than new people who might buy. Our MDP chat has not increased significantly to signifiy a 1000 plus sales of MDP per week much less per month. So, I think that the markets not yet saturated yet. Its possible, but I think that some of our population has dropped out due to the tough scalping. The market does do this incredible up and down... its Forex, world currency. Just my thoughts..
Rambling...
Garry
One thing you gotta keep in mind is 90% of the mdp users will never post a word on a forum anywhere ever, especially if they have found a way to make it profitable.
that could b so true. i've read somewhere before about someone seen a screenshot of a Clickbank balance in excess of million dollar by just selling EA. i wouldnt be surprised this is one of it and it should be called 'million dollarsales EA' lol
one other thing, the developer told me that this EA would hqve better result if there r more users because it places trades riding on retracement but whether that would turn out the case, u be the judge. Or is there someone out there that is able to analyze the strategy, and estimate how many copies would it take to absorb all the volume and turn the retracemnt into a counter trend. Assuming this is even possible taking into consideration that the big boys may not want this EA to spoil their strategy.
Sep 22, 2011 at 05:18
Bill_New_2FX posted:
that could b so true. i've read somewhere before about someone seen a screenshot of a Clickbank balance in excess of million dollar by just selling EA. i wouldnt be surprised this is one of it and it should be called 'million dollarsales EA' lol
one other thing, the developer told me that this EA would hqve better result if there r more users because it places trades riding on retracement but whether that would turn out the case, u be the judge. Or is there someone out there that is able to analyze the strategy, and estimate how many copies would it take to absorb all the volume and turn the retracemnt into a counter trend. Assuming this is even possible taking into consideration that the big boys may not want this EA to spoil their strategy.
This is very true. Going to setup a fake scenario to explain how this would play out to everyone.
Let's say there is a big US news event. And said event comes out far worse than anyone expected. The response is going to be a huge volume of buyers on the EURUSD with very few sellers. This would cause the price of the EURUSD to spike up pretty hard....stall and continue...possibly forming a new uptrend. Now....let's say the volume during this event was 10,000 lots long and 1000 lots short.....causing a huge imbalance and starting the spike...and by 50 pips up, the rest of the 9000 lots is met with matching shorts., causing the movement to stall. Everyone gets their bearings and then after a bit of sideways movement, the sentiment resumes to be mostly on the long side, causing another run up. Now...lets say there are 1000 mdp traders and each are trading a 0.1 lot size (everything set to default). That means when MDP triggers, Eight thousand 0.1 positions will be triggered....or 800 lots. You can see this is a very tiny piece of this movement and is not enough to cause a reversal. But.....what if there were 50,000 people using MDP like this? Then the equivalent downward weight is four hundred thousand 0.1 lot shorts.....or 40,000 lots. Just keeping things as simple as possible and assuming that only another 10,000 lots of longs are dropped in the market by the time the market retraced 100%....this would cause the market to blow past the 100% retracement of when the news event happened.
This is, of course, a MASSIVELY simplified version of what really happens. Plus, it is not taking into account that some of these MDP positions will hit TP and negate their weight on the market, OR...taking into account that not everyone gets in at the same time....etc, etc.
The assessment that MDP would work better if enough people traded it is true. The problem is...at best only 50% will win. What actually happens is...the fastest get their fills first...taking up the liquidity at the good levels....the next set gets slipped, and so on... At some point, those slipped fills become the fills of the TP levels of the initial entries....and that is when the market would start to reverse...and everyone else in, or just getting in are guaranteed to loose as the normal market direction regains control and continues in its initial direction.
Notice how many people were complaining about the MDP-GBP version loosing? Not very many people trade the MDP-GBP...so there isn't much weight to reverse the market enough to get into profit.
Now on top of all this stuff...add in the newly adapted HFT system that are watching for the triggers of MDP and then trying to blow them out by pushing the market until it stops those orders out. Yeah....there are mainframe systems that are designed to specifically hunt for MDP traders and stop them out. Not that they know who or how much is traded...but they know when the signals are given to enter trades...and watch for the volume spike in the opposite direction, signalling the MDP traders have entered the market, and then the stop hunt begins.
This is one of the most extreme cut-throat businesses in the world. Don't be surprised that there are rich people using their money to take what you have when you find a winning system. They don't want you to win because that means you are taking money from them. Whenever someone wins, someone else has to lose in forex. Don't ever for a moment think that you aren't taking money from someone else when you win. Your wins are always forcing someone else to lose. Keep your wins small and you wlll never be a big enough threat for it to be worth going after. The only time you can get greedy and get away with it is when you are already rich. But then....everyone must pay for their greed in the end.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Aug 16, 2010からメンバー
453 投稿
Sep 22, 2011 at 05:22
(編集済みのSep 22, 2011 at 05:24)
This is true, but only if you assume you can trade an interbank via prime brokers, but this is not the case. All we trade is a market made by our brokers who adjust their inventory via second-tier ECN like Currenex, Integral, Lava and these ECNs do not make any price discovery as they simply derive pricing from EBS and Reuters, where we have no access. So what ever we do we cannot influence a real market, no matter how much we trade, unless you trade via institutional broker-dealer, such as HSBC, Barclay's, Deutche Bank, Goldman, etc.
But if we assume that we can influence market then this statement would be a true in terms that we would push these retracement much much more, same way broker-dealers who provide liquidity to others push retracements on news events: they need to re-balance their inventories they used to offer liquidity to other participants. However, since these are stop orders, i.e. conditional market orders, not limit order, therefore they consume liquidity, not provide it, together with increased retracements would come bigger and bigger slippage since all liquidity would be consumed. Same as in case of stop liquidtation or news event spike. But don't worry, the only people we trade with are our brokers, and you can blame them for issues you are having, not real market.
But if we assume that we can influence market then this statement would be a true in terms that we would push these retracement much much more, same way broker-dealers who provide liquidity to others push retracements on news events: they need to re-balance their inventories they used to offer liquidity to other participants. However, since these are stop orders, i.e. conditional market orders, not limit order, therefore they consume liquidity, not provide it, together with increased retracements would come bigger and bigger slippage since all liquidity would be consumed. Same as in case of stop liquidtation or news event spike. But don't worry, the only people we trade with are our brokers, and you can blame them for issues you are having, not real market.
Was mich nicht umbringt, macht mich stärker.
Sep 22, 2011 at 05:51
mistificator posted:
This is true, but only if you assume you can trade an interbank via prime brokers, but this is not the case. All we trade is a market made by our brokers who adjust their inventory via second-tier ECN like Currenex, Integral, Lava and these ECNs do not make any price discovery as they simply derive pricing from EBS and Reuters, where we have no access. So what ever we do we cannot influence a real market, no matter how much we trade, unless you trade via institutional broker-dealer, such as HSBC, Barclay's, Deutche Bank, Goldman, etc.
But if we assume that we can influence market then this statement would be a true in terms that we would push these retracement much much more, same way broker-dealers who provide liquidity to others push retracements on news events: they need to re-balance their inventories they used to offer liquidity to other participants. However, since these are stop orders, i.e. conditional market orders, not limit order, therefore they consume liquidity, not provide it, together with increased retracements would come bigger and bigger slippage since all liquidity would be consumed. Same as in case of stop liquidtation or news event spike. But don't worry, the only people we trade with are our brokers, and you can blame them for issues you are having, not real market.
You can test the pushing of the market. I have been able to push the market during low liquidity times. If we couldn't influence the market, that would have been impossible.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Sep 22, 2011 at 06:25
Prof, You got hit really badly on your main real account yesterday didn't you? Yesterday was really funny.. Usually my real account performs better than the MDP demo on this forum on most occassions. But yesterday it gained about 7% and I lost about 3%.
I can see Prof's account's hit over 20% and others have been talking about near 20% hits..
I'm begining to wonder if the Risk setting is only to adjust the size of the lot or does it have any impact on placing the SL, TP as well?? Coz, the demo runs on 2% risk.. (I operate 1.2% - may have resulted in tighter SL and got most orders stopped out??)
Other thing I can't figure out is the demo has an order executed at 18:37, 10mins after the main action!! All my action stopped after 18:26 executing 33 orders within 2mins causing 3% hit on my account..
I'm lost for answeres today...
I can see Prof's account's hit over 20% and others have been talking about near 20% hits..
I'm begining to wonder if the Risk setting is only to adjust the size of the lot or does it have any impact on placing the SL, TP as well?? Coz, the demo runs on 2% risk.. (I operate 1.2% - may have resulted in tighter SL and got most orders stopped out??)
Other thing I can't figure out is the demo has an order executed at 18:37, 10mins after the main action!! All my action stopped after 18:26 executing 33 orders within 2mins causing 3% hit on my account..
I'm lost for answeres today...
Sep 22, 2011 at 06:26
Bill_New_2FX posted:
that could b so true. i've read somewhere before about someone seen a screenshot of a Clickbank balance in excess of million dollar by just selling EA. i wouldnt be surprised this is one of it and it should be called 'million dollarsales EA' lol
one other thing, the developer told me that this EA would hqve better result if there r more users because it places trades riding on retracement but whether that would turn out the case, u be the judge. Or is there someone out there that is able to analyze the strategy, and estimate how many copies would it take to absorb all the volume and turn the retracemnt into a counter trend. Assuming this is even possible taking into consideration that the big boys may not want this EA to spoil their strategy.
Mate, you're exactly right.. think about it, MDP places trades on the riding retracement. So it should make more profit if all MDP users can influence largely on the 5trillion or something Forex market.
I'm starting to believe the other theory, counter HFT bots developed by liquidity providers (rather than brokers) spoiling the party for small retail fx users...
I'm still trying to workout the disparity between the MDP Demo and My account performance at FMOC yesterday. Emailed William, will get back if I hear anything back..
cheers
Sep 22, 2011 at 07:16
tharaka posted:
Prof, You got hit really badly on your main real account yesterday didn't you? Yesterday was really funny.. Usually my real account performs better than the MDP demo on this forum on most occassions. But yesterday it gained about 7% and I lost about 3%.
I can see Prof's account's hit over 20% and others have been talking about near 20% hits..
I'm begining to wonder if the Risk setting is only to adjust the size of the lot or does it have any impact on placing the SL, TP as well?? Coz, the demo runs on 2% risk.. (I operate 1.2% - may have resulted in tighter SL and got most orders stopped out??)
Other thing I can't figure out is the demo has an order executed at 18:37, 10mins after the main action!! All my action stopped after 18:26 executing 33 orders within 2mins causing 3% hit on my account..
I'm lost for answeres today...
The risk only affects the lot size.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Sep 22, 2011 at 07:33
Hey everybody! I just found a great article that should help explain a little better how HFT system work with the market. Here is the link https://seekingalpha.com/article/293383-how-important-is-high-frequency-trading-to-forecasting-the-market
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Nov 12, 2009からメンバー
19 投稿
Sep 22, 2011 at 08:01
fughe posted:
Hey everybody! I just found a great article that should help explain a little better how HFT system work with the market. Here is the link https://seekingalpha.com/article/293383-how-important-is-high-frequency-trading-to-forecasting-the-market
thanks for that. it makes some sense. more often than not, after the MDP trades died down the marke continues in t direction of the spike, which is the opposite direction to the trades that MDP took. i think one will make some gain by opening trades at the close of MDP trades. some trade copier has that function, does anyone have that, a trade copier that only copy at close but opposite direction. example, MDP buy trades at close mean the trade copier will open a new sell trade. imagine if we had this put in place earlier today. but risk management and strategy is still pretty much scratchy at this point. need a lot more analysis.
cheers
Sep 22, 2011 at 08:36
interesting discussion today :).
I've got something for those who have accounts with Pepperstone. they will not finish server migration this weekend due to 1 week extra for testing. so, we may expect NY server ready around Oct, 3rd. I keep my MDP there switched off. They disclosed to have around 1,000 MDP users. So imagine how poor their server must be now, if there is a problem to maintain orders at a short time. a kind of 'home-made' server :). This is one part of the problem. another issue is long distance between Pepperstone and financial center in NY. Let's hope they gonna improve infrastructure and short distance will significantly help. If I see poor exec time after server migration, I will change broker.
I've got something for those who have accounts with Pepperstone. they will not finish server migration this weekend due to 1 week extra for testing. so, we may expect NY server ready around Oct, 3rd. I keep my MDP there switched off. They disclosed to have around 1,000 MDP users. So imagine how poor their server must be now, if there is a problem to maintain orders at a short time. a kind of 'home-made' server :). This is one part of the problem. another issue is long distance between Pepperstone and financial center in NY. Let's hope they gonna improve infrastructure and short distance will significantly help. If I see poor exec time after server migration, I will change broker.
Sep 22, 2011 at 08:42
my simple question to all the expert here....if say in 2 to 3 months from now when most people kind of already left MDP, it is there will have a chance of it will be profitable again 😝
Not greedy is the most important factor on your FOREX sucsessfullness.
Nov 12, 2009からメンバー
19 投稿
Sep 22, 2011 at 08:54
lobotomy8 posted:
interesting discussion today :).
I've got something for those who have accounts with Pepperstone. they will not finish server migration this weekend due to 1 week extra for testing. so, we may expect NY server ready around Oct, 3rd. I keep my MDP there switched off. They disclosed to have around 1,000 MDP users. So imagine how poor their server must be now, if there is a problem to maintain orders at a short time. a kind of 'home-made' server :). This is one part of the problem. another issue is long distance between Pepperstone and financial center in NY. Let's hope they gonna improve infrastructure and short distance will significantly help. If I see poor exec time after server migration, I will change broker.
wow! just pepperstone alone has 1000 mdp users. and this is a non-US soliciting broker. imagine all the mdp users in the US which by my guess has the most number of retails forex traders. no doubt the vendor is trully a millionaire now.. and we should rename this EA as MVB (Millionaire Vendor Bot) lol
Sep 22, 2011 at 09:29
wow! just pepperstone alone has 1000 mdp users. and this is a non-US soliciting broker. imagine all the mdp users in the US which by my guess has the most number of retails forex traders. no doubt the vendor is trully a millionaire now.. and we should rename this EA as MVB (Millionaire Vendor Bot) lol
No wounder his last posting here on Jun 13 at 13:22 ...'by Million Dollar Pips I will be releasing a live account result soon.' until today no single post he made, he already got a ton of money to enjoy😎
Not greedy is the most important factor on your FOREX sucsessfullness.
