who is guru???!!!
Member Since Aug 24, 2012
152 posts
Sep 09, 2012 at 21:38
Chikot posted:
I have no arguments against your trades other than most of the time you are taking positions against trends. Are you still short aud/usd?
chikot, i closed aud/usd sell order with a nice profit though it was in another account.
i opened this account on 4/9/2012 to show all of you my live trades and discuss about trades.
all my live and pending orders will be available at
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/saeedrehman/saeed/378629
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
2299 posts
Sep 09, 2012 at 22:20
(edited Sep 09, 2012 at 22:21)
My goals are different and my PC was broken and in repair. I was about 300 pips in profit for 100 pips risk. going to be stopped at BE but so far no close trade signal. so let it be. I am not interested in this pair for now.
saeedrehman posted:Chikot posted:
I have no arguments against your trades other than most of the time you are taking positions against trends. Are you still short aud/usd?
chikot, i closed aud/usd sell order with a nice profit though it was in another account.
i opened this account on 4/9/2012 to show all of you my live trades and discuss about trades.
all my live and pending orders will be available at
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/saeedrehman/saeed/378629
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
2299 posts
Sep 10, 2012 at 08:11
Just checked on your account. does not look good for long term success. unrealized is always under actual balance. entries are very sloppy. looks like lay and pray. and you make constant deposits... looks like to avoid margin calls. I can approximately tell what your strategy is. enter on some correlation of support/ resistance with Fib retracement against the market price movement at the moment. you have no losses which is bad cause you do not show how you deal with losses. I see you stop loss 2,3 or more times bigger than your profit target and especially I see it on your trades which are under water.... I believe you are moving your stops as price is moving against you. You cannot be successful long term with this approach. Good luck.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
556 posts
Sep 10, 2012 at 12:42
Chikot posted:
Just checked on your account. does not look good for long term success. unrealized is always under actual balance. entries are very sloppy. looks like lay and pray. and you make constant deposits... looks like to avoid margin calls. I can approximately tell what your strategy is. enter on some correlation of support/ resistance with Fib retracement against the market price movement at the moment. you have no losses which is bad cause you do not show how you deal with losses. I see you stop loss 2,3 or more times bigger than your profit target and especially I see it on your trades which are under water.... I believe you are moving your stops as price is moving against you. You cannot be successful long term with this approach. Good luck.
I do agree equity is appearing to diverge from balance, however the sample size is simply to small to determine that concisely - I think another week or two will give a clearer picture.
As to open trades - it indeed appears as the stops are moved away just to keep the losses floating without realizing them, since the average win is 42 pips while he has an average floating loss of about 80 pips.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
2299 posts
Sep 10, 2012 at 23:50
and what about money management? it is 25% unrealized DD right now from average -80 pips. position size is too much for account size hence deposits. Margin call if trends move further against his positions or more deposits. It reminds me of CuongV strategy if anyone remembers it.
Member Since Aug 24, 2012
152 posts
Sep 11, 2012 at 07:08
(edited Sep 11, 2012 at 07:09)
Chikot posted:
and what about money management? it is 25% unrealized DD right now from average -80 pips. position size is too much for account size hence deposits. Margin call if trends move further against his positions or more deposits. It reminds me of CuongV strategy if anyone remembers it.
thank you chikot for your important comment,
though i am late for more funding where i like to make this account as normal trading account so that none can think about the too small balance. this account can face margin call if the equity reach below 40. i hope that will not happen in current market situation. so have patience and wait for future results.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
2299 posts
Sep 11, 2012 at 07:26
For small account holder solution is Oanda, trade small account like big one with units based position sizing. However there is no solution for moving stops other things other than you working it out for yourself.
This is not a place for hope especially when you are against the trend. cut losses before they kill you.
BTW, how long have you been trading?
This is not a place for hope especially when you are against the trend. cut losses before they kill you.
BTW, how long have you been trading?
saeedrehman posted:Chikot posted:
and what about money management? it is 25% unrealized DD right now from average -80 pips. position size is too much for account size hence deposits. Margin call if trends move further against his positions or more deposits. It reminds me of CuongV strategy if anyone remembers it.
thank you chikot for your important comment,
though i am late for more funding where i like to make this account as normal trading account so that none can think about the too small balance. this account can face margin call if the equity reach below 40. i hope that will not happen in current market situation. so have patience and wait for future results.
Member Since Aug 24, 2012
152 posts
Sep 11, 2012 at 07:40
Chikot posted:
For small account holder solution is Oanda, trade small account like big one with units based position sizing. However there is no solution for moving stops other things other than you working it out for yourself.
This is not a place for hope especially when you are against the trend. cut losses before they kill you.
BTW, how long have you been trading?
though forex market is not a suitable place for hope but i want to get the benefit when 'cad' become weak. i know i have entered earlier but my trade pattern shows that i am waiting for 'usd' to become strong.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
2299 posts
Sep 11, 2012 at 07:48
I see, and then when USD becomes strong you will pick 40 pips? again, it does not matter what we want. Cad is not weak yet and nobody knows when it will become weak. btw, how long have you been trading? from what you say I assume you have been trading for some time.
Member Since Aug 24, 2012
152 posts
Sep 12, 2012 at 07:12
Chikot posted:
I see, and then when USD becomes strong you will pick 40 pips? again, it does not matter what we want. Cad is not weak yet and nobody knows when it will become weak. btw, how long have you been trading? from what you say I assume you have been trading for some time.
thank you chikot,
i think you saw my trades are closed with more than 70 pip profit. still now you didn't show any strong argument against my trades. you just see the market is going against my trades. i believe that someone need to understand and analyze the market to get profit from forex market, long............. experience is not essential here.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
2299 posts
Sep 12, 2012 at 08:29
Saeed, what argument you need? You are under water 150-250 pips on most trades and your average win is 48 pips now. Market is moving against you non stop and you are telling me that my argument is not strong.
Generally your analysis is lay and pray and entries are horrific. you enter against strong momentum and trend hoping that trend will reverse and give you mean reversal.
You are growing fat tails and cut winners shot. Moving your stops to avoid losses and talking about market analysis.
I see that your unrealized loss is getting worse while you are picking small pips on about BE trades use high leverage too. Gonna blow your account my friend. Experience is the most important thing in this business and also psychological control too. It takes time. You have not responded how long you have been trading.
Generally your analysis is lay and pray and entries are horrific. you enter against strong momentum and trend hoping that trend will reverse and give you mean reversal.
You are growing fat tails and cut winners shot. Moving your stops to avoid losses and talking about market analysis.
I see that your unrealized loss is getting worse while you are picking small pips on about BE trades use high leverage too. Gonna blow your account my friend. Experience is the most important thing in this business and also psychological control too. It takes time. You have not responded how long you have been trading.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
556 posts
Sep 12, 2012 at 14:28
Saeed, I must agree with Chikot on this one. I just can't see how your account can survive fat tails - it's just a matter of time before you get margin called.
Do you have other accounts you've traded successfully for a longer period of time where the equity returns back to balance? If so, that would prove me (and the others) wrong.
Do you have other accounts you've traded successfully for a longer period of time where the equity returns back to balance? If so, that would prove me (and the others) wrong.
Member Since Aug 24, 2012
152 posts
Sep 12, 2012 at 15:08
(edited Sep 12, 2012 at 15:10)
James_Bond posted:
Saeed, I must agree with Chikot on this one. I just can't see how your account can survive fat tails - it's just a matter of time before you get margin called.
Do you have other accounts you've traded successfully for a longer period of time where the equity returns back to balance? If so, that would prove me (and the others) wrong.
thank you James_Bond and chikot for your comments.
i know that i am very little experienced than most of the experienced traders of this forum. but i see a very near reversal for eur/usd and gbp/usd and 'usd' become stronger. so i like to keep orders running for more days(by changing sl far and not to close with loss or hit sl) and i believe that i have no chance for margin call. you also see that i have opened a new order of buy usd/cad though i am running 2 same orders in loss because i have no doubt about my analysis. so have patience and see the result.
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forex_trader_29148
Member Since Feb 11, 2011
1916 posts
Sep 12, 2012 at 16:09
saeedrehman posted:James_Bond posted:
Saeed, I must agree with Chikot on this one. I just can't see how your account can survive fat tails - it's just a matter of time before you get margin called.
Do you have other accounts you've traded successfully for a longer period of time where the equity returns back to balance? If so, that would prove me (and the others) wrong.
thank you James_Bond and chikot for your comments.
i know that i am very little experienced than most of the experienced traders of this forum. but i see a very near reversal for eur/usd and gbp/usd and 'usd' become stronger. so i like to keep orders running for more days(by changing sl far and not to close with loss or hit sl) and i believe that i have no chance for margin call. you also see that i have opened a new order of buy usd/cad though i am running 2 same orders in loss because i have no doubt about my analysis. so have patience and see the result.
you are absolutly right
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
2299 posts
Sep 12, 2012 at 16:28
The strategy can be bad strategy, do not forget about it. Saeed is not doing a good work. Nothing to keep up. he is running high chance of blowing up. Any results that have a risk of Margin call doe snot matter what results are is not a good work. His % return is due to high leverage not big pips.
SaltyWaters posted:
Saeed my friend one thing I have to say to you. 'If you believe in your strategy do not give a shit for what other people say. and keep up the good work!' 😄
Cheers.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
2299 posts
Sep 12, 2012 at 16:32
Saeed, were your average win 400-600 pips it would be different story. But your average win is around 40 pips and I saw you were up to -250 pips on few pairs. Whatever you think you are doing statistics will kill your account. period. I think you are watching and using too many indicators in wrong way. just watch what price is doing on pairs which you go against the current momentum. bad idea. Also the question of leverage. Cut it man considerably. 1% risk per trade the best.
forex_trader_79941
Member Since Jun 06, 2012
1439 posts
Sep 12, 2012 at 16:46
dear saeed-ur-rehman
you
- either trade to move your equity curve over balance curve
- or trade with stop loss.
I beleive in good & I am praying on fridays noon regularly
but praying will not save you from big %DD or destroying your account.
good luck!
walker.
you
- either trade to move your equity curve over balance curve
- or trade with stop loss.
I beleive in good & I am praying on fridays noon regularly
but praying will not save you from big %DD or destroying your account.
good luck!
walker.
Member Since Aug 24, 2012
152 posts
Sep 12, 2012 at 18:46
saeedrehman posted:
i shall post my live trades/projected trades here and request everybody to post comment against any of my trade with strong argument to prove that i am in wrong trade. i normally say that less than 5% of my trades can go to loss.
you can also find my all live/projected trades at https://www.myfxbook.com/members/saeedrehman/saeed/378629
sell eur/usd at 1.2900 sl 1.3150 tp 1.2620
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
2299 posts
Sep 13, 2012 at 23:32
Ok, Saeed, I think you are growing some seriously fat tails. 33% is unrealized loss. Your stops are actually irrelevant cause with leverage used you will get margin call before those stops are hit. I wonder what is your logic behind opening those trades?
What interesting Sharpe ratio is 1.04. Looks great while 1100 pips in minus unrealized. it looks strange actually. Have no idea how Sharpe is being calculated.
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