Genesis System Discussion

Just thought I should drop a note about the loss on the Genesis today. We had two sets open and needed to test the emergency basket termination system. This system would have allowed us to avoid the NZDUSD double stoploss last week. The test was a success.

On the same note, my analysis of the GBPJPY in post 1196 seems to be holding up, which means both sets would have went to target easily. Just for the curious, the furthest target up was 158.764. So they likely would have had positive slippage. as it would have triggered during the news spike.

I just realized everyone may not know what post 1196 is. I did an analysis on the GBPJPY yesterday and posted a chart on another forum. Essentially, the analysis was, the GBPJPY looks to be primed for a move up. Here is a link to the chart if you want to see what I had posted.... https://www.tradingview.com/i/U9ARegw0

Boy, Genesis backtest is not the same as the foward tests and the NZDUSD is driving me crazy. Two elements. The first being that of all the pairs, NZDUSD traded the least after the all filters were applied, so the sample rate may not be indicative to the reality as this is not a frequent trader and I don't want to make it a frequent trader.

Which leads into the second element, that the CONT logic EAs are over trading and can stand with having tighter / better restrictions on the logic. Good news is while it will take sometime still to finish, the new opening logic is looking good. Not that it will show more in the back test all the time, but where trades open that failed in the backtest have a more uniformed reoccurences around the news. These changes also show good potential and sampling on the EURJPY too. On the REV logic, just to see what works / doesn't work with the new logic, the news will also need updating but we just wanted to get the logic working to verifiy some other things that got placed into the EA. Likewise, we are also looking other crosses that show good potential and sampling
Live forward tests on demo will probably get more ugly before they get better, but fortunately, it is more revealing to the price sensitivity of the setups. Down side is even after a SL, the backtesting doesn't always trade the same trade, and this is with tick data and with broker data, so there will need to be other checks and balances put into place before this can go live, and hopefully the concepts can be backtested.

Anyway, getting to the 3 mo point in the forward tests, learned a lot, but it might take me until the end of the year to get a stable set set of code to sit back and see how it goes. 5 more weeks and the EAs are off for the holidays.

Happy Thanksgiving to all that celebrate the holiday.

Just to give all an update. Dec 18th will be the last day for the EAs to open any new trades until the 11th (that is a Saturday so that means 13th) before new trades open.

Given that it is obvious were not ready for prime-time, next year we'll introduce a few more pairs into the mix. On the REV logic, the CHFJPY was added, but no trades of yet, and AUDCAD and EURCHF will also be added. EURCHF will trade so long as the price remains above 1.21 given the SNB's intervention policies for the EUR.

More work is going on with the opening and closing logic. Takes time with using price movements to get the rules correct, but it is worth it. There are two other systems in the wind, and while this Genesis system is going to take more time, the reusable components from the Genesis will be already tested and perfected as all three will use nearly identical closing logic.

Interesting thing is that during the backtests, changes in Fed policy have given the EAs the most stress. So watching the results in a forward test are only confirming that as more trades go three deep and SLs appear. FOMC next week should produce some fireworks given the bets for a sooner than later QE policy change...but, markets been surpirsed before.

All pairs (20) are ready to go and new trades should start back up on Monday if the patterns warrant the trade.

Hope all had a good New Years break.

Had to terminate the last series of EURUSD trades early as I realized that the GMT time was not set correctly. Been in backtest mode too much with GMT and ICM is GMT+2.

Litte bit of sloppy programming on my part over the holidays.

There is a current set of EURUSD trades open since the 14th. I noticed that the trade opened for the wrong reason so if we get a SL set again, you know in advance.

Originally, there was one EA per pair logic being traded...so dealing with 20 EAs was a pain so consolidation was needed into just one EA for the CONT logic and one for the REV logic. So has part of the merge, some things got moved around and the results were not tested as much as I should have...of well, the wife say stay off the computer over the holidays so I was in a rush.

So this week has been damage control and I think I got it where it needs to be. A couple other trades didn't have the correct SLs in the trade so I closed them out early (see the notes in the comments on the effective trades. The other trades, USDCHF, another EURUSD and GBPUSD would have hit better TPs than where they were closed at.

Also been working on the EA recovery logic in the event of a crash / close of the MT4 / VPS and there was an accidental USDCHF trade that triggered as well.

Yup, SL on that EU set. Noticed some other intesting things over the weekend so we have some updates and this is getting updated today, granted we're less than 1% from where the month / year started at.

Normally, we don't let the crosses trade on USD holidays. But we needed to test some of the recovery logic so this gave us a chance, so we tried to keep the gains close to BE as not to skew the results.

Let's see how things play out the rest of the month.

So I can say that my rush to consolidate the EAs from 20 to 2 was a bit rushed...to the tune of -21% this month. The GU SL set was a legit SL but the sequence of events gave me an idea for code that I have updated for Feb...so we'll see how that works out in 4 weeks.

I was doing some analysis a bit ago...again....and I realized that some people may not think to do this. If you would like to see the performance of any particular currency at any given point, or over the entire period, you can always click the 'analyze button and select specific currencies. I only say this because it appears the system has been doing poorly, but this is a group test of every currency we have settings for so far. Some of the currencies have not been doing so well, and others have been doing very good.

For anyone interested, the best performers as of this time are the EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDCAD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURGBP, and CHFJPY. The struggling pairs are the GBPUSD, USDCHF, EURUSD, EURCHF, NZDUSD, and USDCAD. One last thing I want to point out, some of these pairs are new additions, so they do not have as much history.

Anyway, I just wanted to remind everyone this can be done in case you had not thought about it, but were interested in how the individual pairs were performing.

Cheers!

So six months into this creature and what have we done…a lot!
• Went from 16 pairs to 20 pairs
• This month, decreased the risk level from 10% to 8% to adjust for the additional pairs to preserve margin as we saw it drop below our desired % level on a 1:400 account
• For all the SLs except for one, adjusted the trading rules that improved the equity curves w/o changes to the news events filtering since Nov.
• Continue to examine SLs and 3 trade sets to look for improvements

There are really 4 components to the trade that can hit TP or SL:
• News
• Opening logic
• 2nd / 3rd trade placement
• Closing logic

When this EA started last year, Sept thru Nov was focused on the news and the closing logic. Dec thru now, we expanded to look at all areas except news and at this point it really is coming down to more work on the opening logic that will take some time thru this year.

This month the EA traded the most since we started. 4 SLs killed the results, but we’ve made good code adjustments (actually 35 times over the past 26 weeks) that have focused on the problem pairs (like the Kiwi.)

The v1.35 logic has been running since min Feb. Yes, we’re going to have some updates but we’re going to do this every other month to get some stability and see how things roll. When will this be ready? Well, the point at which we can see 6 months of only one SL per month average and we have 6 months of live real money on the trades.

Feb closed with all trades flat, so March will be another good month to gauge progress. More to come.

Just an FYI...ICM MT4 was updated to build 600 on the demo. Having some news issues for downloading so the EA will be off line until it can be fixed.

Going to target getting this one updated to MT600+ and back on line starting April 7th.

Well, we're trading...just not getting the updates into the this site correctly for some reason.

There is one bug in the updated code that we know know with mutiple EAs trading and the news process so that will need to get fixed over the weekend.