Tom'sEa WPFX LIVE (By TomsEaWPFXlive)
The user has deleted this system.
Tom'sEa WPFX LIVE Discussion
Jan 24, 2012 at 21:44
Some pundits are saying 1.57 on cable... Personally, I'm expecting to have to ride this out for a while longer - don't know what everyone else thinks(?)
On a related note: there have been a number of chances for the EA to snatch 60 or 70 pips from a live trade that's ranging between the profit target and entry, then re-enter at an appropriate point, but the pips have come and gone. On EUR/USD and GBP/USD just since opening yesterday, I count c. 200 pips missed (at £1/pip, or 1.0 'lot' on my spreadbetting account). Am I expecting too much of the EA?
On a related note: there have been a number of chances for the EA to snatch 60 or 70 pips from a live trade that's ranging between the profit target and entry, then re-enter at an appropriate point, but the pips have come and gone. On EUR/USD and GBP/USD just since opening yesterday, I count c. 200 pips missed (at £1/pip, or 1.0 'lot' on my spreadbetting account). Am I expecting too much of the EA?
Jan 24, 2012 at 23:35
tyoung6608 posted:
Maybe I misunderstood your post ravenlok. Are you saying that Tom's EA is still working with Tradency, as long as your broker is FXCM, FXDD, or WPFX?
I am using FXDD. Thanks.
yes. for those yet to get a tradency account & would like to use it for Tom's EA; tradency shall only link your MT4 from any of the above 3 brokers.
Jan 24, 2012 at 23:41
'Hi Ivan
Thanks for your reply. Before I placed gbp/usd on charts I sent email to support and they said it should be ok, due to sterling account .
The position now is
Balance £2136 equity 1708 Margin 97 Free margiin 1611 margin level 1758% - £428
DD including margin is close to 25%.
One question, will i be ok on margin until the worst case it drops below 100%?
Cheers '
Hi Trading Shed
Im trading eur/usd on setting 2 and gbp/usd on setting one, I asked support just before christmas about including gbp /usd at 1 and they said it should be ok as my account total is in sterling and leverage of 1:500. I'm not too concerned about the dd as long as it pulls back in time. Currently looking now including margin i'm at just over 25%. My concern is making sure I have enough margin as I want to make sure my margin isn't called.
I started on 1st Nov with 1676 on eur /usd, so its the first time my DD as gone beyond all the profits made. Just keeping fingers crossed. The last trade on the eur /usd is now at .12 and last trade on gbp usd at .09 (but feel it will open a .12 very soon).
Cheers
Thanks for your reply. Before I placed gbp/usd on charts I sent email to support and they said it should be ok, due to sterling account .
The position now is
Balance £2136 equity 1708 Margin 97 Free margiin 1611 margin level 1758% - £428
DD including margin is close to 25%.
One question, will i be ok on margin until the worst case it drops below 100%?
Cheers '
Hi Trading Shed
Im trading eur/usd on setting 2 and gbp/usd on setting one, I asked support just before christmas about including gbp /usd at 1 and they said it should be ok as my account total is in sterling and leverage of 1:500. I'm not too concerned about the dd as long as it pulls back in time. Currently looking now including margin i'm at just over 25%. My concern is making sure I have enough margin as I want to make sure my margin isn't called.
I started on 1st Nov with 1676 on eur /usd, so its the first time my DD as gone beyond all the profits made. Just keeping fingers crossed. The last trade on the eur /usd is now at .12 and last trade on gbp usd at .09 (but feel it will open a .12 very soon).
Cheers
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 00:53
chrissav posted:
Hi Trading Shed
Im trading eur/usd on setting 2 and gbp/usd on setting one, I asked support just before christmas about including gbp /usd at 1 and they said it should be ok as my account total is in sterling and leverage of 1:500. I'm not too concerned about the dd as long as it pulls back in time. Currently looking now including margin i'm at just over 25%. My concern is making sure I have enough margin as I want to make sure my margin isn't called.
I started on 1st Nov with 1676 on eur /usd, so its the first time my DD as gone beyond all the profits made. Just keeping fingers crossed. The last trade on the eur /usd is now at .12 and last trade on gbp usd at .09 (but feel it will open a .12 very soon).
Cheers
I would be surprised if these two pairs have much further to go in the short term as EURUSD appears to me overextended on many counts. I think that as long as you are happy with a bit more DD, they will come back. I am not sure about Alpari policies but with 500:1 and 25% DD you should be nowhere near a margin call.
In my opinion you are not overtrading with a RL3 and 2k account. I am surprised you reached 0.12 position with a 2k account on RL3. I have larger accounts and I am only just now on 0.09 on two of them while all the others are still at 0.06.
My nearest 600 pip stop on EURUSD will kick in in 200 pips and I personally do not think we will go that high.
Of course I could be wrong.
If we go higher and you become uncomfortable with the DD but do not want to close positions, have you thought @ placing a manual buy order above recent highs to hedge your losses (should we move higher)? Or set the EA feature to close all positions @ your max tolerance.
Jan 25, 2012 at 03:50
Bloomberg News:
“The FOMC meeting could be negative for the U.S. dollar against other currencies, but positive against the yen,” said Imre Speizer, a strategist in Auckland at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-largest lender. “If they explicitly say they’re going to leave the Fed funds rate at a record low for a very long time, even though the market already knows that and expects it, it may be positive for risk markets.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-25/asia-stocks-u-s-equity-futures-rise-on-apple-as-dollar-nears-3-week-low.html
“The FOMC meeting could be negative for the U.S. dollar against other currencies, but positive against the yen,” said Imre Speizer, a strategist in Auckland at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-largest lender. “If they explicitly say they’re going to leave the Fed funds rate at a record low for a very long time, even though the market already knows that and expects it, it may be positive for risk markets.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-25/asia-stocks-u-s-equity-futures-rise-on-apple-as-dollar-nears-3-week-low.html
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 10:15
All,
with regards to my previos posts, I personally still stick with my short term bearish retracement bias on EURUSD but beware there is a LOT of bullish sentiment out there in the web.
Everyone with an opinion is suggesting higher prices to come......
with regards to my previos posts, I personally still stick with my short term bearish retracement bias on EURUSD but beware there is a LOT of bullish sentiment out there in the web.
Everyone with an opinion is suggesting higher prices to come......
Jan 25, 2012 at 10:22
tradingshed posted:
All,
with regards to my previos posts, I personally still stick with my short term bearish retracement bias on EURUSD but beware there is a LOT of bullish sentiment out there in the web.
Everyone with an opinion is suggesting higher prices to come......
I gotta second that. I have a bearish bias on the EURUSD too, but there is an overwhelming amount of risk sentiment toward the EUR. I would venture to guess that it would be good to prepare for a possible massive DD.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 11:01
...so that's who the other short is.... 😀 I knew I would find it eventually 😁
Jan 25, 2012 at 12:32
What do you know....we were right. 😀
But, it's not all fun and games now. If I am gauging TEA correctly, all of you should now have 2 or 3 open long positions. Which means you should be prepared for the same thing you just dealt with on this uptrend. Big DD. It is the way TEA operates, so get used to it. Just remember, control your risk, make sure you have adequate capital and leverage, and you should be fine.
On a side note---this is just an idea I have had for a while and I figure now is as good a time as any to bring it up. You guys should really start asking the TEA support team to change the way the risk mechanism works. You should have them change the risk input so that you can put in your exact risk. The last time i remember, if you input a number less than 1, it defaulted to 1% and greater than 3 defaulted to 3%. Plus, you couldn't input fractions of a percent. It would be useful (and much safer) if you were able to lower the risk to say 0.5% or even 0.1%. i know that sounds extreme, but after all, this is all about survival. I am sure by what i have seen people posting here that even using 1%, the risk seems quite large when a currency pair takes off on a big trend. Plus, if you had access to fractional percentages, you could add in multiple currency pairs much more safely. Just a thought. Do with it as you will.
Cheers!
But, it's not all fun and games now. If I am gauging TEA correctly, all of you should now have 2 or 3 open long positions. Which means you should be prepared for the same thing you just dealt with on this uptrend. Big DD. It is the way TEA operates, so get used to it. Just remember, control your risk, make sure you have adequate capital and leverage, and you should be fine.
On a side note---this is just an idea I have had for a while and I figure now is as good a time as any to bring it up. You guys should really start asking the TEA support team to change the way the risk mechanism works. You should have them change the risk input so that you can put in your exact risk. The last time i remember, if you input a number less than 1, it defaulted to 1% and greater than 3 defaulted to 3%. Plus, you couldn't input fractions of a percent. It would be useful (and much safer) if you were able to lower the risk to say 0.5% or even 0.1%. i know that sounds extreme, but after all, this is all about survival. I am sure by what i have seen people posting here that even using 1%, the risk seems quite large when a currency pair takes off on a big trend. Plus, if you had access to fractional percentages, you could add in multiple currency pairs much more safely. Just a thought. Do with it as you will.
Cheers!
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Jan 25, 2012 at 12:54
Hi Fughe
Its looking better but still in the short positions on the eur and gbp/usd. They need to come down by another 40 pips before they tP so still hanging in there. Only one long position on gbp /usd but a minimum trade.01
Hoping these soon tp so we can move on
Its looking better but still in the short positions on the eur and gbp/usd. They need to come down by another 40 pips before they tP so still hanging in there. Only one long position on gbp /usd but a minimum trade.01
Hoping these soon tp so we can move on
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 13:07
fughe posted:
On a side note---this is just an idea I have had for a while and I figure now is as good a time as any to bring it up. You guys should really start asking the TEA support team to change the way the risk mechanism works. You should have them change the risk input so that you can put in your exact risk. The last time i remember, if you input a number less than 1, it defaulted to 1% and greater than 3 defaulted to 3%. Plus, you couldn't input fractions of a percent. It would be useful (and much safer) if you were able to lower the risk to say 0.5% or even 0.1%. i know that sounds extreme, but after all, this is all about survival. I am sure by what i have seen people posting here that even using 1%, the risk seems quite large when a currency pair takes off on a big trend. Plus, if you had access to fractional percentages, you could add in multiple currency pairs much more safely. Just a thought. Do with it as you will.
Cheers!
Although I understand where you are coming from, I am actually of a different opinion here. My view is that to start using 1.85 risk levels would be a bit of a waste of time (and computing power in calculating all those lot sizes!)
And people would not use them anyway. As far as going below RL1, I also think there would probably be no much point in trading @ RL 0.2 and noone would use it ayway. IMO the majority of users tend to overdo it on the risk rather than looking for safer options. (which is fine)
The options available in v1.89 are good. If DD is getting to you, just deactivate the EA and it will manage the existing trades without entering new ones. You can also reduce level down to RL1 even with open positions. I have done it several times with good results. You can enable the Max DD which will close all positions @ max tolerance level.
All good stuff IMO
Jan 25, 2012 at 13:10
If I understand the risk setting correctly, and from what i remember seeing when I tested it, if you have open positions, reducing the risk has no effect. The EA is already locked into a set level of risk until the trade set is closed out.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 13:29
(edited Jan 25, 2012 at 13:31)
That is correct. It has no effect on the open trades. However, It will change the risk from that moment on new trade-sets.
It will not help you with existing DD but nor would having a 0.5 RL option.
When you enter a trade, you do not know that you are going to have a large DD and therefore you would not choose the RL 0.2 option. (at least, i would not). You are wanting to make money and you are going to keep running on RL1/2/3.
Its only afterwards, when you are in and the pair has taken off in the wrong direction that you need to manage the trade. And I feel the tools available are sufficient.
Beside manual intervention, security stops and ability to stop new trades, I cannot see what it could be done to manage open trades when a trade set has started.
In speaking to several users, I have noticed a tendency of using only one or two pairs on high risk levels. Typically, only EURUSD at RL3, perhaps adding GBPUSD @ RL2/3 if funds allow.
To me that setting lacks diversification and the pairs are too correlated in times like this.
I would rather have all pairs @ RL1 but have more pairs running. As the funds increase, add more pairs. They would hedge each other a little that way. Only when I am running all the recommended pairs, I would look at increasing RL. perhaps, (althought not in the recommended set) test some non-eruo pairs to add some breathing space to the mix ;-)
By running just EURUSD on RL3 one is extremely vulnerable to Merkel's or Sarkozy's mood that particular morning :-)
Hope it helps
It will not help you with existing DD but nor would having a 0.5 RL option.
When you enter a trade, you do not know that you are going to have a large DD and therefore you would not choose the RL 0.2 option. (at least, i would not). You are wanting to make money and you are going to keep running on RL1/2/3.
Its only afterwards, when you are in and the pair has taken off in the wrong direction that you need to manage the trade. And I feel the tools available are sufficient.
Beside manual intervention, security stops and ability to stop new trades, I cannot see what it could be done to manage open trades when a trade set has started.
In speaking to several users, I have noticed a tendency of using only one or two pairs on high risk levels. Typically, only EURUSD at RL3, perhaps adding GBPUSD @ RL2/3 if funds allow.
To me that setting lacks diversification and the pairs are too correlated in times like this.
I would rather have all pairs @ RL1 but have more pairs running. As the funds increase, add more pairs. They would hedge each other a little that way. Only when I am running all the recommended pairs, I would look at increasing RL. perhaps, (althought not in the recommended set) test some non-eruo pairs to add some breathing space to the mix ;-)
By running just EURUSD on RL3 one is extremely vulnerable to Merkel's or Sarkozy's mood that particular morning :-)
Hope it helps
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 13:47
(edited Jan 25, 2012 at 14:08)
To illustrate the point on diversification,
below is TOM's EA trading US Oil contracts on RL2/3 during the last few weeks on demo account testing (£10,000)
Any major MT4 will offer UsOil.
Trading Oil has more to do with Iran's nuclear woes than Greek defaults. As you can see, constantly profitable.
Oil is very volatile on a 1m chart and it does seem to have the rythmic fluctuations that Tom's EA likes.
Trading diverse products will help DD as, when the EUR tanks or rally, perhaps Oil does not so much.
(Ignore the few WS30 trades showing here.)
I am also testing several non-recommended pairs on demo accounts.
I am not recommeding the practice, just illustrating it.
below is TOM's EA trading US Oil contracts on RL2/3 during the last few weeks on demo account testing (£10,000)
Any major MT4 will offer UsOil.
Trading Oil has more to do with Iran's nuclear woes than Greek defaults. As you can see, constantly profitable.
Oil is very volatile on a 1m chart and it does seem to have the rythmic fluctuations that Tom's EA likes.
Trading diverse products will help DD as, when the EUR tanks or rally, perhaps Oil does not so much.
(Ignore the few WS30 trades showing here.)
I am also testing several non-recommended pairs on demo accounts.
I am not recommeding the practice, just illustrating it.
Attachments:
Jan 25, 2012 at 13:59
The risk level is one of the main reasons i would not use TEA. 1% is too high of a risk to use with a martingale in my opinion. i would rather have 10 pairs running with 0.1% risk than 1 pair running at 1% risk.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Jan 25, 2012 at 14:01
There is also an undisclosed bonus of being able to run many pairs. You get more trades opened overall, and if you use trade rebates, that is a nice extra source of income every month. i just can't help bu think it would be highly beneficial for you guys to have access to lower risk percentages.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Member Since Nov 06, 2011
181 posts
Jan 25, 2012 at 14:13
fughe posted:
Anyway, just some ideas I had. Doesn't do me much good since i don't own a copy of TEA, so none of this would benefit me anyway. i like the concept, but not the risk involved.
Fughe, sure, just chatting, no worries.
I am interested though, if @ RL1, the first trade entered is 0.01, what would the first trade on a RL0.2 be?
Bearing in mind that (if I am not mistaken) the minimum available to traders is a microlot.
If @ RL1 we have:
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
etc etc
What would RL0.2 look like?
Jan 25, 2012 at 14:53
Well, the risk calculation is (AccountEquity * RiskPercentage)/10,000,000
This is a pretty standard calculation. What this gives you is a lot size. what you will notice is, if you do the math for it, a 1% risk on $1000 gives a lot size of 0.0001, which doesn't exist on any broker. There will be some calculation to normalize the lot size to the current smallest available size for the account. So, if my understanding is correct, on a $1000 account, using the standard method to calculate risk (which is a VERY high likelihood), it would take a risk of over 100% to increase the lot size from 0.01 lot to 0.02 lot. This would also jive with my previous analysis of the opened lot sizes if the market got in a megatrend. The amount of the account risked would be all of it.
This is a pretty standard calculation. What this gives you is a lot size. what you will notice is, if you do the math for it, a 1% risk on $1000 gives a lot size of 0.0001, which doesn't exist on any broker. There will be some calculation to normalize the lot size to the current smallest available size for the account. So, if my understanding is correct, on a $1000 account, using the standard method to calculate risk (which is a VERY high likelihood), it would take a risk of over 100% to increase the lot size from 0.01 lot to 0.02 lot. This would also jive with my previous analysis of the opened lot sizes if the market got in a megatrend. The amount of the account risked would be all of it.
Make losses, but always come out a winner at the end.
Jan 25, 2012 at 17:01
Hi, Fughe
I am not sure where 10 million number come from on you risk calculation. on forex 1 standard lot control 100k of the currency. Yes I agree with you martingale is risky method so do all trading methods. but Tom ea use micro lot and hedging and martingale principle and sufficient capital and other methods to minimize risk and sustain during large drawdown. I sense from some of recent posts that those traders still use trend follow mentality to trade TomEA, which I believe is totally counterproductive. Remember, TomEA is one of rare profitable methods to trade range bound market that happen 60-80% of time. It should not be the only trading technique for your portfolio. on the other hand, If you use compounding concept, for $5000 account and 8% ROI per month, it grow to 1 million in 35 months. it is not bad at all. again most trend follow methods have 30-50% drawdown during ranging market. TomEA will smooth out those drawdown and give you very consistent monthly income. just my two cents
ss
I am not sure where 10 million number come from on you risk calculation. on forex 1 standard lot control 100k of the currency. Yes I agree with you martingale is risky method so do all trading methods. but Tom ea use micro lot and hedging and martingale principle and sufficient capital and other methods to minimize risk and sustain during large drawdown. I sense from some of recent posts that those traders still use trend follow mentality to trade TomEA, which I believe is totally counterproductive. Remember, TomEA is one of rare profitable methods to trade range bound market that happen 60-80% of time. It should not be the only trading technique for your portfolio. on the other hand, If you use compounding concept, for $5000 account and 8% ROI per month, it grow to 1 million in 35 months. it is not bad at all. again most trend follow methods have 30-50% drawdown during ranging market. TomEA will smooth out those drawdown and give you very consistent monthly income. just my two cents
ss
