ATFX ​Market Outlook 14th October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 14th October 2025

Gold Hits New Record Above $4,100 as Markets Await Fed Chair’s Speech

Market Highlight

U.S. equities closed sharply higher on Monday, led by Broadcom and other chipmakers, after President Trump issued reassuring remarks to ease renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. The Dow rose 1.29%, the S&P 500 gained 1.56%, and the Nasdaq surged 2.2%. The U.S. Dollar Index also rebounded above the 99 mark as trade worries moderated.

Despite easing tensions, safe-haven demand remained strong. Gold broke above $4,100 per ounce for the first time, setting another record high, while silver also climbed to historic levels. Oil prices rebounded from a five-month low as markets welcomed signs of stabilization in global trade relations.

Key Outlook

On the data front, attention turns to the latest U.K. labor market figures. September’s unemployment rate is expected to remain above 4%; any rise from the prior 4.4% reading could fuel expectations for a Bank of England rate cut before year-end. In the Eurozone, investors will watch whether the October ZEW Economic Sentiment Index shows improvement. Looking ahead, focus will be on the Fed Chair’s speech late Wednesday, which may offer key signals in the absence of major U.S. data.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Final SEP ** 

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate AUG ** 

16:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report **  

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index OCT **  

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index SEP **

Tomorrow: 

00:20 Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks *** 

09:30 CN CPI YoY SEP **  

17:00 EU Industrial Production MoM AUG ** 

20:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index OCT ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1586/1.1596

· Support: 1.1540/1.1529

EUR/USD slipped 0.4% to 1.1571 after Trump’s softer tariff tone lifted the Dollar. Focus now turns to Eurozone data and the start of the U.S. earnings season. Technically, the pair remains capped below the descending trendline, with resistance to nearly 1.1586. A failure to break higher could see renewed pressure toward 1.1540 support, keeping the bearish bias intact.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3353/1.3377

· Support: 1.3299/1.3275

GBP/USD slipped 0.13% to 1.3333 as the Dollar regained strength after Trump’s softer tariff stance. The focus now shifts to the UK jobs report and BoE Governor Bailey’s remarks for guidance. Technically, the pair is struggling below 1.3353 resistance, with repeated failures suggesting downside risk. A break under 1.3299 support could expose 1.3275, keeping the near-term bias bearish.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 152.95/153.27

· Support: 152.19/151.93

USD/JPY climbed 0.81% to 152.36 in thin Japanese holiday trading, supported by a firmer Dollar as markets balanced U.S. rate expectations with Japan’s political uncertainty. Technically, the pair is holding above 152.10 support and eyeing resistance near 152.95. A break higher could extend momentum, while a dip below 152.19 may trigger short-term pullbacks.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 60.48/61.05

· Support: 59.21/58.65

WTI crude settled at $59.49 as easing U.S.–China tensions offered mild support, while OPEC maintained a robust demand outlook. However, Middle East peace progress capped further upside. Technically, prices are struggling below $60.48 resistance and remain under a descending trendline. A sustained break under $59.21 could expose $58.65, while only a clear move above $61.05 would ease bearish pressure.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4158/4175

· Support: 4117/4104

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 52.93/53.26

-Support: 52.29/51.87

Gold surged to a fresh record at $4,116.87/oz, supported by renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and growing Fed rate-cut expectations. The structural demand from central banks and ETF inflows, projecting prices could approach $5,000 by 2026. Technically, gold broke above the $4,120 zone and is consolidating near $4,140. As long as $4,117 holds as support, momentum favors another leg higher toward $4,158.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46269/46418

· Support: 45785/45638

The Dow Futures climbed 1.29% to 46,067, supported by tech and consumer stocks as easing trade tensions lifted sentiment. Investors now await major bank earnings to gauge U.S. economic resilience. Technically, the index rebounded from 45,785 support and is testing 46,269 resistance. A decisive break higher could reopen the channel toward 47,000+.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24960/25081

· Support: 24573/24454

NAS100 jumped 2.21%, marking its most substantial daily gain since May 27. AI chipmakers fueled the rally, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soaring nearly 5%. Technically, the index rebounded from the 24,573 support zone and now eyes resistance near 24,960. A decisive break above this level could open the way toward 25,081, while failure may trigger consolidation back toward 24,573.

BTC        

· Resistance: 117968/119051

· Support: 112200/110838

Bitcoin rebounded to $114,360 after Trump’s tariff threats triggered a record $19B liquidation, sending it briefly as low as $103,893. Institutional demand stayed firm, with MicroStrategy adding 220 BTC. Technically, BTC is consolidating above the $112,200 support and holding an ascending trendline. If these base holds, a retest of $117,968 resistance remains likely, with upside momentum eyeing $120,000.

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