Focus Turns to US ADP Report Tonight as Quiet Trading Set to Break

ATFX - A Global Leader in Online Trading

ATFX Market Outlook 3rd December 2025

Focus Turns to US ADP Report Tonight as Quiet Trading Set to Break

Market Highlight

US equities closed higher on Tuesday in thin trading, marking gains in six of the past seven sessions. Tech stocks lifted overall sentiment, and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week remain strong. The Dow rose 0.39%, the S&P 500 gained 0.25%, and the Nasdaq added 0.59%. The US Dollar Index softened into the close, slipping 0.06% to 99.34, while EUR/USD edged up 0.1% to 1.1624.

Gold retreated overnight as investors took profits after Monday’s six-week high and turned cautious ahead of key US data and next week’s Fed policy meeting. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,207.2 per ounce. Oil prices dropped more than 1%, with markets weighing fluctuating hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace talks against ongoing concerns of oversupply.

Key Outlook

Today, market attention is centered on US data. The November ADP employment change is expected to show a modest increase of 10,000 jobs, down from the previous forecast of 42,000, underscoring the negative impact of the government shutdown on the labor market. The November ISM non-manufacturing PMI is projected to stay in expansionary territory but ease slightly to 52.1 from 52.4.

Key Data and Events Today:

16:55 EU GERMANY Services PMI Final NOV ** 

17:00 EU Services PMI Final NOV ** 

17:30 GB Services PMI Final NOV ** 

18:00 EU PPI OCT **

21:15 US ADP Employment Change NOV *** 

22:45 US Services PMI Final NOV **

23:00 US ISM Services PMI NOV **

23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

Tomorrow: 

16:00 EU Retail Sales OCT ** 

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1656/1.1676

· Support: 1.1612/1.1592

EUR/USD hovered near 1.1615 as Eurozone inflation edged up to 2.2%, with ECB officials stressing that price growth is essentially at target. With markets awaiting U.S. PCE data, policy expectations stay muted, keeping the pair confined in a tight range above 1.1612 support.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3248/1.3276

· Support: 1.3185/1.3157

GBP/USD edged down to 1.3202 after the BOE lowered bank capital requirements for the first time in ten years to boost lending. With few UK-specific catalysts, the pair remained driven mainly by USD flows ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. A hold above 1.3185 keeps the short-term bias steady.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 156.26/156.89

· Support: 155.25/154.74

USD/JPY bounced to 155.91 as traders reassessed Ueda’s hawkish signals after Monday’s sharp yen surge. Despite markets still pricing nearly an 80% chance of a December BoJ hike, the dollar found support from a steady U.S. outlook and firm yields. The pair faces resistance near 156.26–156.89.

US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)

· Resistance: 59.29/59.64

· Support: 57.85/57.51

WTI slid to $58.64, pressured by optimism over potential progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks and ongoing oversupply concerns. Hopes that restrictions on Russian energy could ease added further downside risk, though geopolitical tensions remain a key wild card. Price consolidates within a tightening wedge.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4245/4274

· Support: 4180/4151

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 60.13/60.79

-Support: 57.25/56.60

Gold retreated to around $4,186, sliding over 1% from six-week highs as profit-taking kicked in after a strong rally. Analysts view the pullback as temporary, with expectations of an 89% chance of a December Fed cut keeping the broader bullish trend intact. Market attention now shifts to the upcoming U.S. data.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 47721/48033

· Support: 47086/46769

The Dow futures rose 0.39%, lifted by Boeing’s 10% surge and strong Fed-cut expectations (89%). Technically, price is holding above 47,086 support, with buyers defending the demand zone. A rebound toward 47,721 resistance remains likely if the support floor continues to hold.

NAS100

· Resistance: 25837/26182

· Support: 25292/25018

The NAS100 rose 0.59% as tech stocks outperformed ahead of Friday’s PCE data. Technically, price has broken above the descending trendline and is stabilising above 25,292 support. As long as this level holds, a push toward 25,837 resistance remains in the near-term bullish scenario.

BTC        

· Resistance: 93065/94517

· Support: 88283/86806

Bitcoin recovered to around $88,500, but market sentiment remains fragile after whale inflows, algo selling, and thin liquidity prompted Monday’s sharp decline. Markets price in nearly a 90% chance of a December Fed cut, though weak ETF flows limit the upside. Technically, BTC faces resistance at $93.065–94,517, with the risk of another pullback if it fails to move higher.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 9 licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's SCA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, and Cambodia's SERC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.