The crypto market rebound is far from recovery

Market Overview

The crypto market is making a new attempt at growth, and its capitalisation has once again exceeded the psychologically important round level of $3 trillion. The centre of the battle between bulls and bears over the past month has been near this level. Positive dynamics prevail on Monday, but this is mainly due to the low base effect.

The sentiment index rose to 25, signalling a potential exit from the extreme fear zone. It seems that over the past month, the crypto market has simply grown tired of fear. On the other hand, this is not enough for growth, and objective fundamental changes will be needed to return to a bull market.

Bitcoin is trading at $89K, once again at the upper limit of the range that has been in effect since the beginning of last week. The short-term positive momentum may be misleading, and the broader picture of disappointment compared to hopes at the start of the year should not be overlooked. Bitcoin is 30% below its peak and trading at a level lower than it was at the beginning of 2025. Attempts to bring YTD momentum to zero are little consolation in this context.

Sentiment in the crypto market remains bearish, according to Santiment. Growth in demand for Bitcoin is fading, which could keep the asset in a bearish trend, according to CryptoQuant.

Risk appetite in the derivatives market has also weakened. The technical picture has deteriorated: Bitcoin has broken below the 365-day moving average, which traditionally serves as the boundary between growth and decline phases.

There has been no final capitulation of investors in the market yet, and the search for a price bottom is not over, according to Checkonchain's assessment of the situation. Experts cite $81K as a critical level, which corresponds to the average purchase price for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Fundstrat has named the possible range of $60K - $65K as a ‘good entry point’ before the subsequent recovery of the asset.

The fact that many influential BTC developers are ignoring the threat of quantum computing is already a bearish factor for Bitcoin, according to Castle Island Ventures. This position contradicts the philosophy of ‘active paranoia,’ which is typically characteristic of the Bitcoin community.

Ethereum developers have chosen a name for the upcoming update, which will follow the Glamsterdam hard fork in the first half of 2026. The upgrade has been named Hegota, and its release is scheduled for the second half of 2026.

The FxPro Analyst Team