Arcferreira's Posts

Intraday Trading is gambling in New Traders Feb 10, 2021 at 10:50

I believe that everyone who trades using technical analysis is in someway gambling. There is no difference if you use higher timeframes or smaller ones. Technical indicators will give same answer, always.The problem with daytrade is more about risk management. If you trade monthly for a 5% return and 60% year, you must do the same in daytrading.Don't think you can do 100x more profit using a 15 min TF vs a daily TF. Everything has risks. There is no gain without risk.

Hello everyone in New Traders Feb 24, 2019 at 13:19

After 4 years studying Forex I learned something called Positive Expectancy.For example, in roulete game, your positive expectancy is:Winning% - 1/38Losing % - 37/38Reward - 36Loss - 1Positive Expectancy = Winning% x Reward - Losing% x LossPE = 1/38 × 36 - 37/38 ×1PE = 36/38 - 37/38PE = -1/38 = - 2.63%In short, no matter what you do, the house (Casino) has an edge. You only have luck to win the house...But Casino has an insurance against lucky players: a max bet value. But in Financial Markets, you need to do like Casino: a positive expectancy strategy with small bets in the long r...

Reasons why you should NOT trade cryptocurrencies in Crypto Jan 13, 2019 at 13:35

The problem with cryptos - we don't know their real (intrinsical) value. Gold will not go to zero, because it has a real value, probably near 600/800 USD. Corn will not go to zero... currencies are the same. But no one was able to tell me the real value of a cryptocurrency.

Emotion in Forex trading in General Jan 03, 2019 at 08:53

Yes, near 1/2 billion caused a destruction in oil market...

Emotion in Forex trading in General Jan 02, 2019 at 10:48

There is a big difference between a retail trader and a hedge fund trader. This difference is called market depht. A small retail trader can open a 1 lot trade and ihe will not be noticed by market, because 1 lot is nothing. But a hedge fund can't open 10.000 lots in just one trade. This trade will cause a huge move in market, and his order will be filled in different levels. The other difference is the acceptable volatility. For a retail trader, 25% drawdown is acceptable. For a hedge fund, less than 10%.Different things... A retail can trade for 10% monthly, an hedge fund for 3%.

Emotion in Forex trading in General Dec 30, 2018 at 08:00

There is something interesting in retail traders. When they start in Forex Market, the majority of their education comes from Brokers!There is a conflict of interest here - brokers need you trading often and trading big lots. For every full lot you trade in EURUSD, brokers get 18 USD in spreads. Even ECN/STP... Imagine what brokers prefer to teach and how much money they spend in Forums, spec sites and even developing EAs? Many Forex gurus in Market are Brokers' employees or partners. Imagine 2 traders with 1.000 USD accountTrader 1 - 0.1 lot, Stop loss 100 pips, Take Profit 300 pips - win...

Emotion in Forex trading in General Dec 24, 2018 at 07:18

Let's make 2 questions:Question oneA) you have 100% of chance to lose 30 USDB) you have 80% of chance to lose 40 USD, and 10% of chance to lose nothing92% of answers say option B.Question twoA) 100 percent chance of receiving $30 USDB) 90 percent chance of receiving $40 USD, and a 10 percentchance of receiving nothing.80% of answers say option A.These question were part of a study carried by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, about market behavior, in 1979.Successful traders answers: A and B.Why? Because they play with probabilities. In the long term, for example:Question oneA) loose 30 USD...

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Dec 16, 2018 at 11:25

In short, trading is about probabilities.Reward/Risk ratio in every trade = R/R = 1/1Risk in % of your initial balance = Risk = 1%Winning ratio in % = WR = 60%Number of trades per month = MT = 20Monthly return = MT *Risk*(WR * R/R - (100% - WR))Monthly return = 20*1%*(60%*1 - (100% - 60%)) = 4%A 4% monthly isn't a impossible task. Do it a year...Yearly return = (1 + monthly return)^12 - 1Yearly return = 1.04^12 -1 = 0.601 = 60.1%

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Dec 16, 2018 at 11:24

Yes, Forex and CFDs are a Cassino. Earlier you realize this truth, easier you will make money.Imagine the Roulette in the Cassino. There is 18 black numbers and 18 red numbers. If you bet black every single time, your chance to win is 50%, correct? No, it isn't. Because the Cassino has the zero and double zero. After 3800 bets, you win 1800, and the house 2000. Your chance in this strategy is 47.4%. For the Cassino, is 52.6%. For every million people bet in Roulette, House's profit is 52.000,00.Because the Cassino increase its odds in 2.6%, it is able to be profitable...The cassino doe...

The wind is changing in General Dec 04, 2018 at 08:08

Emma123, the basics.Uptrend. When you have a higher high and a higher low.Downtrend. When you have a lower high and a lower low.Consolidation. When prices don't create a trend. Imagine a Downtrend when you have a lower high and a lower low. After this, market stop to make lower lows, but is unable to create higher highs. In this case prices make a triangle. These consolidation is a signal of a possible change in trend.

Emotion in Forex trading in General Dec 02, 2018 at 12:24

According to FXCM, 79% of traders lose money in CFD and Forex market. Why?Because trading is about odds. And odds are math, not emotions.You see a support line in EURUSD at 1.121, and a resistance at 1.143. Prices were at 1.140. You think, prices are going up, let me buy this stuff. Your emotion took control and you saw only the possible profit in a breakout. A pro trader would take the risk (30 pips) to sell this one. After this sell, he would close 50% of his trade at 1.136 (another support), and keep the rest of the trade with zero risk. Near 1.121 he would buy this stuff. If prices brake 1...

Reasons why you should NOT trade cryptocurrencies in Crypto Nov 23, 2018 at 09:50

It is not wise to HODL something under 200 daily SMA. This line is the Aqueronte river in TA.

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Sep 11, 2018 at 14:50

No. I didn't find anyone able to prove a reliable system. It is not difficult to double your money in 2-3 months using agressive trade.The problem is sooner or later you will suffer a big loss. BLACK SWAN events are difficult to avoid... and your technical analysis go to hell. And your money either.A 3-5% monthly is possible with 20-30% drawdown. It is 60% a year and after 10 years your money will grow 110x. Your 1.000 USD account will be 1.600 USD after 1 year and 110.000 USD.BUT 3-5% monthly demands a lot of study. I am able to achieve this after 3 years studying. It is enough to pay my...

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Sep 05, 2018 at 10:37

Greed is a human behaviour.Sometimes I remember Douglas Adams and the computer to answer about everything in Universe. After 7 billion years, the answer was 42!The question here is something like that... CAN FOREX MAKE YOU RICH?Other questions: CAN MUSIC, TENNIS, OR ANYTHING MAKE YOU RICH?The answer is clear, yes...But the road isn't simple, because there isn't shortcuts...I did a good money as a doctor. It was hard... Forex can make a good money too...but the learning curve is hard too...

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Jul 08, 2018 at 06:01

Surgery is not so difficult as surgeons make you believe...The same for forex trading...The hard thing is study, learn and practice... for surgery, for forex, for everything in life...Even a robot, to find or create one useful, you must study, learn and test...

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Jul 06, 2018 at 10:34

I agree with you!100% of newbies think they will be the next Soros. After 1 month, 40% gave up, after 1 year, 80% are out. Only 7% stay trading for more than 5 years. And just 1% are able to profit in a regular basis.What that means? Resilience and work are the key for everything. Learning is an exponential curve! In Louvre Museum, I learned that any sculpture was done in 5-10 years of work, for someone that studied the same time to do them...I spent near 40.000 hours of my life to be an expert in Medicine. I needed ten years to apply for a black belt in Judo.... nothing comes easy!

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Jul 05, 2018 at 07:32

Go to www.udemy.com and type Forex. There is a guy called Kirill Eremenko that sold 533.000 courses at least 10 USD each. Yes, Forex made this guy rich (533.000 × 10 = 5.330.000 USD). Yes. Forex can make a lot of people rich!

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Jul 05, 2018 at 06:07

You are correct! Studying 4 hours a week, not a day.

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Jul 04, 2018 at 10:05

Sinal subscriptions and education delivery? Yes, there is a lot of people making big money selling them. Signals are 99.9% provided by robots that use Martingale as money management strategy. Sooner or later you will loose all your money... 1000 subscriptions paying 50 USD to your signal and you get 50.000 monthly.Education delievery is another jackpot. It is easier to found a myriad of courses from "famous" traders and analysts from Investing.com, CNBC, Fxstreet...names like Justin Bennett, Kathy Lien... they can easily have 2.000 students paying from 300 to 3.000 USD in a course. ...

Can forex trading make you rich ? in General Jul 03, 2018 at 06:05

Forex can make you rich easier than a lot of things... but you need at least something like 10.000 hours of study and practice to master something. I am a doctor. My Medicine graduation had 6 years, studying at least 50 hours per week. (6 x 50 x 50 = 15.000 hours). After that, I spent 3 years to become a Surgeon (3 x 80 x 50 = 12.000 hours) and another 2 years to become an ICU doctor (8.000 hours). After 40.000 hours studying and working , I became an expert. My wage? 240.000 USD/year.You will not master Forex trading without effort... I am studying technical analysis for near 4 years, 4 hours...

EURUSD	1.03678	GBPUSD	1.25192	AUDUSD	0.62488
USDJPY	157.631	USDCAD	1.43724	USDCHF	0.89865

Posts by Arcferreira